Comparison of the parties' best county margins in close elections of the 20th and 21st centuries
1916
Philadelphia, PA (103,363) (66.81%-31.25%)
Cook, IL (56,257) (51.26%-44.64%)
Orleans, LA (28,405) (91.03%-7.45%)
Manhattan, NY (26,293) (52.55%-42.65%)
Allegheny, PA (24,650) (55.24%-37.67%)
Los Angeles, CA (21,484) (50.59%-42.58%)
Cuyahoga, OH (20,246) (55.50%-39.78%)
Denver, CO (19,844) (62.81%-33.84%)
Essex, NJ (19,571) (59.2%-37.8%)
Suffolk, MA (18,555) (57.5%-40.0%)
> 0.1%: Hughes 5 (50%), Wilson 5 (50%)
1948
Brooklyn, NY (249,428) (53.51%-30.49%)
Cook, IL (200,836) (54.17%-45.23%)
Wayne, MI (167,881) (57.87%-38.03%)
The Bronx, NY (164,085) (54.17%-27.80%)
Suffolk, MA (159,940) (69.0%-27.4%)
Manhattan, NY (138,558) (51.51%-32.75%)
Nassau, NY (113,792) (69.48%-26.58%)
St Louis City, MO (99,998) (64.2%-35.1%)
Westchester, NY (81,396) (60.93%-32.92%)
Bergen, NJ (73,525) (65.70%-31.84%)
Allegheny, PA (73,031) (54.89%-42.60%)
Hudson, NJ (71,866) (60.1%-36.5%)
Providence, RI (55,387) (60.73%-38.20%)
Queens, NY (54,717) (50.58%-42.02%)
Jackson, MO (52,715) (61.4%-38.2%)
Milwaukee, WI (48,965) (54.72%-40.44%)
Suffolk, NY (46,415) (69.75%-26.88%)
Montgomery, PA (44,464) (66.53%-31.96%)
Bristol, MA (43,525) (61.9%-36.6%)
Cuyahoga, OH (43,069) (52.58%-43.80%)
Ramsey, MN (40,386) (62.84%-34.17%)
> 0.1%: Truman 12 (75%), Dewey 4 (25%)
> 0.075%: Truman 15 (71.4%), Dewey 6 (28.6%)
1960
Wayne, MI (378,842) (65.99%-33.66%)
Philadelphia, PA (331,544) (68.02%-31.79%)
Brooklyn, NY (319,085) (66.16%-33.51%)
Cook, IL (318,736) (56.37%-43.33%)
The Bronx, NY (207,425) (67.88%-31.76%)
Manhattan, NY (197,631) (65.28%-34.19%)
Suffolk, MA (167,073) (74.4%-25.3%)
Cuyahoga, OH (140,974) (59.83%-40.17%)
Middlesex, MA (110,004) (59.01%-40.78%)
Allegheny, PA (107,485) (57.07%-42.76%)
St Louis City, MO (100,988) (66.6%-33.4%)
Providence, RI (97,986) (67.49%-32.51%)
Baltimore City, MD (88,047) (63.9%-36.1%)
Queens, NY (78,660) (54.71%-45.07%)
Milwaukee, WI (70,640) (57.81%-41.96%)
Bergen, NJ (68,804) (58.92%-40.90%)
Bristol, MA (65,759) (66.8%-33.0%)
Erie, NY (65,246) (56.62%-43.30%)
Orange, CA (62,884) (60.81%-38.95%)
Nassau, NY (60,925) (55.12%-44.76%)
Hudson, NJ (60,782) (60.0%-39.1%)
Dallas, TX (60,493) (62.16%-36.99%)
Worcester, MA (60,373) (60.46%-39.37%)
Hartford, CT (58,944) (58.88%-41.12%)
DuPage, IL (56,751) (69.45%-30.43%)
San Francisco, CA (54,733) (57.78%-41.79%)
Lake, IN (54,276) (62.72%-37.04%)
Westchester, NY (53,152) (56.61%-43.21%)
Suffolk, NY (52,611) (59.32%-40.59%)
New Haven, CT (51,833) (57.96%-42.04%)
San Diego, CA (51,797) (56.41%-43.31%)
> 0.1%: Kennedy 15 (100%), Nixon 0 (0%)
> 0.075%: Kennedy 23 (74.2%), Nixon 8 (25.8%)
1968
Wayne, MI (383,591) (63.25%-26.16%)
Philadelphia, PA (271,615) (61.85%-29.90%)
Brooklyn, NY (241,238) (63.12%-31.99%)
Manhattan, NY (235,348) (70.04%-25.59%)
Cook, IL (220,823) (50.56%-41.11%)
Middlesex, MA (182,006) (64.11%-32.60%)
Orange, CA (166,036) (63.14%-29.85%)
Suffolk, MA (154,454) (75.6%-18.2%)
The Bronx, NY (135,071) (62.40%-32.02%)
Cuyahoga, OH (124,749) (53.95%-35.44%)
Queens, NY (103,926) (53.60%-40.03%)
Allegheny, PA (100,116) (51.12%-37.09%)
Providence, RI (98,926) (67.64%-28.11%)
Baltimore City, MD (98,304) (61.6%-27.7%)
Suffolk, NY (95,437) (58.18%-32.71%)
San Diego, CA (93,871) (56.26%-36.07%)
St Louis City, MO (84,758) (64.7%-26.4%)
Erie, NY (82,201) (55.18%-37.04%)
Worcester, MA (80,083) (63.52%-33.32%)
San Francisco, CA (76,539) (59.18%-33.66%)
DuPage, IL (76,401) (66.61%-25.86%)
Maricopa, AZ (76,058) (59.08%-31.39%)
Alameda, CA (66,260) (53.90%-37.63%)
Norfolk, MA (64,655) (60.30%-36.01%)
Bristol, MA (62,767) (65.06%-30.87%)
Bergen, NJ (62,729) (54.45%-39.27%)
Dallas, TX (60,384) (50.66%-34.06%)
Hartford, CT (59,125) (56.19%-38.78%)
Ramsey, MN (58,500) (62.64%-32.75%)
Hampden, MA (55,593) (62.52%-31.31%)
> 0.1%: Humphrey 17 (77.3%), Nixon 5 (22.7%)
> 0.075%: Humphrey 23 (76.7%), Nixon 7 (23.3%)
1976
Philadelphia, PA (255,579) (66.28%-32.03%)
Brooklyn, NY (228,654) (68.34%-31.08%)
Manhattan, NY (219,736) (73.22%-25.54%)
Wayne, MI (200,179) (60.11%-38.18%)
Cook, IL (193,316) (53.44%-44.69%)
Orange, CA (176,386) (62.16%-35.33%)
The Bronx, NY (141,944) (70.77%-26.70%)
Queens, NY (135,511) (60.54%-38.95%)
Maricopa, AZ (113,649) (61.66%-34.53%)
DuPage, IL (102,918) (68.77%-28.34%)
Middlesex, MA (99,875) (55.94%-40.42%)
Baltimore City, MD (96,831) (68.6%-31.4%)
Cuyahoga, OH (93,592) (56.03%-41.01%)
Dade, FL (91,899) (58.06%-40.45%)
San Diego, CA (89,648) (55.74%-41.60%)
Alameda, CA (80,708) (57.89%-38.09%)
Oakland, MI (80,005) (58.69%-39.47%)
Hamilton, OH (75,662) (59.84%-38.41%)
Fulton, GA (68,297) (67.84%-32.16%)
Kent, MI (67,805) (67.2%-31.3%)
Worcester, MA (67,103) (60.41%-36.89%)
Dallas, TX (66,778) (56.65%-42.27%)
Suffolk, MA (61,387) (61.1%-34.7%)
> 0.1%: Carter 11 (73.3%), Ford 4 (26.7%)
> 0.075%: Carter 15 (65.2%), Ford 8 (34.8%)
2000
Los Angeles, CA (838,575) (63.47%-32.35%)
Cook, IL (746,005) (68.63%-28.65%)
Brooklyn, NY (382,047) (80.60%-15.65%)
Manhattan, NY (350,383) (79.60%-14.38%)
Philadelphia, PA (348,223) (80.04%-17.99%)
Wayne, MI (307,393) (69.01%-29.02%)
Queens, NY (287,539) (75.00%-21.95%)
Alameda, CA (223,610) (69.36%-24.13%)
The Bronx, NY (223,098) (86.28%-11.77%)
Broward, FL (209,821) (67.41%-30.93%)
Middlesex, MA (205,129) (61.49%-30.27%)
King, WA (203,529) (60.02%-34.40%)
San Francisco, CA (190,082) (75.54%-16.10%)
Cuyahoga, OH (167,814) (62.62%-33.42%)
Prince George's, MD (166,132) (79.48%-18.38%)
Orange, CA (149,480) (55.75%-40.36%)
Santa Clara, CA (143,740) (60.66%-34.44%)
Baltimore City, MD (131,615) (82.5%-14.1%)
Essex, NJ (118,663) (71.5%-25.8%)
Nassau, NY (117,028) (57.96%-38.46%)
Palm Beach, FL (116,790) (62.27%-35.31%)
Tarrant, TX (113,163) (60.74%-36.78%)
Harris, TX (110,892) (54.28%-42.91%)
Suffolk, MA (110,447) (71.4%-20.5%)
Montgomery, MD (107,873) (62.54%-33.52%)
Multnomah, OR (104,764) (63.5%-28.2%)
Orleans, LA (98,226) (76.0%-21.7%)
DeKalb, GA (95,702) (70.2%-26.7%)
Allegheny, PA (94,602) (56.65%-40.41%)
Hartford, CT (93,699) (60.17%-34.68%)
Maricopa, AZ (93,284) (53.23%-42.88%)
Milwaukee, WI (88,838) (58.20%-37.71%)
San Mateo, CA (86,461) (64.29%-30.96%)
Collin, TX (85,295) (73.07%-24.45%)
Contra Costa, CA (82,965) (58.81%-37.06%)
Hennepin, MN (81,942) (53.60%-39.32%)
Utah, UT (81,810) (81.7%-13.7%)
Norfolk, MA (81,417) (59.41%-33.75%)
Providence, RI (81,091) (65.26%-28.12%)
Erie, NY (80,000) (56.55%-37.72%)
> 0.1%: Gore 22 (88%), Bush 3 (12%)
> 0.075%: Gore 34 (85%), Bush 6 (15%)
2004
Cook, IL (842,319) (70.25%-29.15%)
Los Angeles, CA (831,511) (63.10%-35.60%)
Manhattan, NY (419,360) (82.06%-16.73%)
Philadelphia, PA (412,106) (80.44%-19.30%)
Brooklyn, NY (347,824) (74.86%-24.30%)
Wayne, MI (342,297) (69.39%-29.81%)
Alameda, CA (291,674) (75.18%-23.29%)
King, WA (279,335) (64.87%-33.65%)
Queens, NY (267,881) (71.66%-27.41%)
San Francisco, CA (242,417) (83.02%-15.21%)
Cuyahoga, OH (226,880) (66.57%-32.89%)
The Bronx, NY (227,293) (82.80%-16.53%)
Orange, CA (222,593) (59.68%-38.98%)
Broward, FL (209,199) (64.21%-34.61%)
Prince George's, MD (205,000) (81.81%-17.44%)
Middlesex, MA (203,047) (63.99%-34.52%)
Santa Clara, CA (177,006) (63.94%-34.63%)
Maricopa, AZ (174,606) (56.97%-42.33%)
Multnomah, OR (161,146) (71.6%-27.1%)
Tarrant, TX (142,176) (62.39%-37.01%)
Baltimore City, MD (138,792) (82.0%-14.1%)
Montgomery, MD (137,602) (65.97%-32.83%)
Hennepin, MN (128,708) (59.33%-39.43%)
Suffolk, MA (127,669) (75.9%-22.8%)
DeKalb, GA (127,217) (72.6%-26.6%)
Essex, NJ (120,487) (70.4%-28.8%)
Milwaukee, WI (117,366) (61.72%-37.39%)
Palm Beach, FL (115,999) (60.35%-39.05%)
San Mateo, CA (114,607) (69.48%-29.25%)
Utah, UT (110,912) (85.99%-11.64%)
Orleans, LA (109,763) (77.4%-21.7%)
Harris, TX (108,858) (54.75%-44.56%)
Contra Costa, CA (106,646) (62.28%-36.46%)
Collin, TX (105,500) (71.15%-28.12%)
Allegheny, PA (96,987) (57.15%-42.13%)
Denver, CO (96,232) (69.61%-29.29%)
Riverside, CA (93,667) (57.83%-41.04%)
> 0.1%: Kerry 22 (88%), Bush 3 (12%)
> 0.075%: Kerry 30 (81.1%), Bush 7 (18.9%)
2012
Los Angeles, CA (1,331,570) (69.69%-27.83%)
Cook, IL (992,995) (73.88%-24.59%)
Philadelphia, PA (492,339) (85.24%-13.97%)
Brooklyn, NY (479,892) (82.02%-16.90%)
Manhattan, NY (413,115) (83.74%-14.92%)
King, WA (392,304) (68.72%-28.36%)
Wayne, MI (382,032) (72.83%-26.13%)
Alameda, CA (361,502) (78.69%-18.12%)
Queens, NY (352,143) (79.08%-19.92%)
Prince George's, MD (312,204) (89.73%-9.22%)
The Bronx, NY (309,244) (91.45%-8.08%)
Santa Clara, CA (275,975) (69.97%-27.14%)
Broward, FL (264,211) (67.12%-32.23%)
Cuyahoga, OH (256,581) (69.32%-29.55%)
San Francisco, CA (254,647) (83.40%-13.01%)
Dade, FL (208,459) (61.58%-37.87%)
Middlesex, MA (204,483) (62.56%-35.45%)
Montgomery, MD (200,047) (70.92%-27.05%)
Multnomah, OR (199,585) (75.4%-20.6%)
Baltimore City, MD (193,307) (87.2%-11.1%)
Hennepin, MN (183,906) (62.34%-35.30%)
Milwaukee, WI (177,514) (67.49%-31.45%)
DeKalb, GA (173,832) (77.6%-20.9%)
Essex, NJ (172,212) (78.0%-21.3%)
Suffolk, MA (163,897) (77.5%-20.8%)
Contra Costa, CA (154,307) (66.23%-31.09%)
Denver, CO (148,907) (73.4%-24.2%)
Maricopa, AZ (147,597) (53.92%-43.30%)
Utah, UT (139,669) (88.32%-9.72%)
San Mateo, CA (133,329) (72.1%-25.5%)
Dane, WI (132,427) (71.0%-27.5%)
Franklin, OH (130,349) (60.53%-37.75%)
Fulton, GA (118,346) (64.13%-34.42%)
Oahu, HI (115,830) (68.86%-29.81%)
Hudson, NJ (110,739) (77.5%-21.4%)
Dallas, TX (109,758) (56.99%-41.57%)
Fairfax, VA (108,500) (59.57%-39.07%)
Montgomery, TX (105,049) (79.70%-19.02%)
Palm Beach, FL (102,253) (58.14%-41.13%)
Hartford, CT (101,401) (62.37%-36.52%)
Clark, NV (100,883) (56.42%-41.82%)
Mecklenburg, NC (100,594) (60.65%-38.24%)
Sonoma, CA (99,158) (71.1%-25.3%)
Orleans, LA (98,232) (80.26%-17.79%)
Ramsey, MN (98,137) (66.33%-31.13%)
Sacramento, CA (97,989) (58.1%-39.2%)
Westchester, NY (97,663) (61.99%-36.84%)
> 0.1%: Obama 30 (93.75%), Romney 2 (6.25%)
> 0.075%: Obama 44 (93.62%), Romney 3 (6.38%)
2016
Los Angeles, CA (1,694,621) (71.76%-22.41%)
Cook, IL (1,156,659) (73.93%-20.79%)
Manhattan, NY (514,083) (86.56%-9.71%)
King, WA (501,983) (69.85%-21.04%)
Brooklyn, NY (499,509) (79.51%-17.51%)
Philadelphia, PA (475,277) (82.30%-15.32%)
Alameda, CA (418,920) (78.06%-14.54%)
Queens, NY (367,879) (75.35%-21.76%)
Santa Clara, CA (366,858) (72.71%-20.58%)
The Bronx, NY (315,849) (88.52%-9.46%)
Prince George's, MD (311,238) (88.13%-8.40%)
San Francisco, CA (307,396) (84.47%-9.22%)
Middlesex, MA (300,567) (65.31%-27.59%)
Broward, FL (292,369) (66.08%-31.16%)
Wayne, MI (290,451) (66.36%-29.26%)
Dade, FL (290,147) (63.22%-33.83%)
Montgomery, MD (265,133) (74.72%-19.36%)
San Diego, CA (257,710) (56.30%-36.57%)
Hennepin, MN (237,518) (63.13%-28.20%)
Multnomah, OR (224,607) (73.3%-17.0%)
Cuyahoga, OH (214,060) (65.41%-30.25%)
Contra Costa, CA (203,331) (67.50%-24.51%)
DeKalb, GA (199,902) (79.1%-16.2%)
Dallas, TX (198,135) (60.22%-34.34%)
Fairfax, VA (197,423) (64.43%-28.61%)
Suffolk, MA (195,330) (78.4%-16.1%)
Denver, CO (181,861) (73.7%-18.9%)
Travis, TX (181,051) (65.77%-27.14%)
San Mateo, CA (179,953) (75.7%-18.4%)
Fulton, GA (179,268) (67.70%-26.85%)
Essex, NJ (177,661) (77.0%-20.2%)
Baltimore City, MD (177,468) (84.7%-10.5%)
Milwaukee, WI (162,753) (65.48%-28.58%)
Harris, TX (161,959) (53.95%-41.61%)
Franklin, OH (151,867) (59.78%-33.93%)
Dane, WI (146,422) (71.4%-23.0%)
Westchester, NY (141,688) (64.88%-31.20%)
Mecklenburg, NC (139,044) (62.29%-32.89%)
> 0.1%: Hillary Clinton 38 (100%), Trump 0 (0%)
Republican dodrant-major county margins
Montgomery, TX (104,479) (73.46%-22.40%)
> 0.075%: Hillary Clinton > 38, Trump 1 (no better than 2.56%)
2020
Los Angeles, CA (1,883,355) (71.03%-26.86%)
Cook, IL (1,167,704) (74.22%-24.01%)
King, WA (638,143) (74.95%-22.24%)
Manhattan, NY (517,855) (86.42%-12.21%)
Brooklyn, NY (500,538) (76.78%-22.14%)
Alameda, CA (481,350) (79.81%-17.61%)
Philadelphia, PA (471,050) (81.21%-17.86%)
Santa Clara, CA (403,355) (72.64%-25.23%)
Middlesex, MA (390,240) (71.47%-26.28%)
San Diego, CA (364,556) (60.21%-37.46%)
Queens, NY (356,373) (72.03%-26.92%)
Prince George's, MD (342,118) (89.26%-8.73%)
Wayne, MI (332,617) (68.32%-30.27%)
Hennepin, MN (326,650) (70.46%-27.25%)
San Francisco, CA (321,739) (85.26%-12.72%)
Montgomery, MD (318,347) (78.61%-18.96%)
Dallas, TX (291,500) (64.89%-33.29%)
The Bronx, NY (287,634) (83.29%-15.88%)
Broward, FL (285,343) (64.48%-34.74%)
Multnomah, OR (284,254) (79.21%-17.90%)
Travis, TX (274,523) (71.41%-26.43%)
Contra Costa, CA (263,509) (71.63%-26.30%)
Fairfax, VA (251,542) (69.89%-28.03%)
DeKalb, GA (249,854) (83.1%-15.7%)
Fulton, GA (243,904) (72.57%-26.20%)
Denver, CO (241,675) (79.55%-18.19%)
Harris, TX (217,563) (55.96%-42.70%)
San Mateo, CA (215,847) (77.89%-20.20%)
Cuyahoga, OH (213,477) (66.36%-32.32%)
Suffolk, MA (211,909) (80.6%-17.5%)
Mecklenburg, NC (198,896) (66.68%-31.60%)
Franklin, OH (197,907) (64.68%-33.40%)
Essex, NJ (191,345) (77.3%-21.9%)
Milwaukee, WI (182,913) (69.07%-29.25%)
Baltimore City, MD (181,886) (87.3%-10.7%)
Dane, WI (181,385) (75.4%-22.8%)
Sacramento, CA (181,403) (61.36%-36.11%)
Westchester, NY (167,658) (67.57%-31.30%)
Wake, NC (167,139) (62.25%-35.80%)
> 0.1%: Biden 39 (100%), Trump 0 (0%)
Republican dodrant-major county margins
Montgomery, TX (119,005) (71.22%-27.39%)
> 0.075%: Biden > 39, Trump 1 (no better than 2.5%)
---
One reason for including counties that voted for either nominee by between 0.075% and 0.1% of the national vote would be to avoid the lists including only a very small number of idiosyncratic counties. However, the more compelling reason was that, in 1960, Nixon carried no counties by at least 0.1% of the national vote. While this is interesting and does likely indicate something strange going on in that election, it is also, if taken on its own, somewhat misleading as to Nixon's large-county support in that election (as can be seen when we extend the list to include dodrant-major county margins). Looking just at major county margins, the percentages of such counties carried by Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1968, and Ford in 1976 are all fairly comparable, indicating that, likely, by the time of these elections, there were enough such counties that they provided statistically meaningful information.
In 1916, Charles Evans Hughes did well enough amongst the major margin counties (not only carrying half of all counties giving either nominee a major margin, but also winning what were, by a large amount, the two largest county raw vote margins), that it didn't seem necessary to go any further to demonstrate that he had (at a minimum) equal appeal in large counties as his Democratic opponent.
These data tend to bear out several points discussed here. Firstly, even though Nixon (in 1968) was likely historically weak in the large counties for a winning nominee at the time, his performance was comparable to other close-election Republicans of the same era (with 1968 being the only close election won by a Republican between the New Deal and 2000). He carried 22.7% of the counties giving either major nominee a major margin (as compared to 25% for Dewey in 1948 and 26.7% for Ford in 1976), and 23.3% of the counties giving either major nominee a dodrant-major margin (as compared to 28.6% for Dewey in 1948 and 25.8% for himself in 1960, with Ford in 1976 doing significantly better by this metric, at 34.8%). Interestingly, even though he won no major county margins in 1960, he won a slightly greater proportion of the dodrant-major county margins in 1960 than he did in 1968 (further bearing out that it is somewhat misleading to look at just the major county margins in 1960).
Secondly, even though, going by the proportion of counties casting at least a certain amount of vote carried, Dewey appears to have done historically badly for a nearly-winning nominee in 1948, going by proportion of county raw-vote margins above a certain amount won, he likewise did comparably to other close-election Republicans of the Cold War era. (Meanwhile, in 1944, he carried just 18.2% of the major county margins, and--without finding the counties FDR won that year by between 0.075% and 0.1% of the national vote--carried no better than 18.2% of the dodrant-major county margins.)
Thirdly, George W. Bush--whether going by proportion of county raw-vote margins above a certain amount won, or by proportion of counties casting at least a certain amount of vote carried--did historically badly for a winning or nearly-winning presidential nominee, in both 2000 and 2004. The percentage of major county margins he carried in both elections was 12%, qualitatively lower than Dewey's 25% in 1948, Nixon's 22.7% in 1968, or Ford's 26.7% in 1976 (if not, obviously, lower than Nixon's 0% in 1960). However, unlike for Nixon in 1960, including dodrant-major county margins does not change the picture much. Of these county margins, Bush won 15% in 2000 and 18.9% in 2004, as compared to Dewey's 28.6% in 1948, Nixon's 25.8% in 1960, Nixon's 23.3% in 1968, and Ford's 34.8% in 1976.
Compared with subsequent Republican nominees, Bush certainly did much better, which might be surprising relative to Romney (a candidate who, as Chris Palko noted, was 'very similar to [George H. W. Bush] in background and style'). One might have expected Romney to have been able to execute a recovery akin to what Gerald Ford--evidently the postwar narrow-election Republican who ran strongest in the country's population centres--did in the wake of Nixon. (Of course, Ford was facing something of a throwback Democratic candidate, whereas Romney was not.) However, as of 2000 and 2004, later elections hadn't happened yet, and Bush was clearly winning in a way that was different to the way previous close-election Republicans had won or nearly won in at least a century (even if it was still significantly more reliant on large-county support than later Republicans' efforts would be). Leaving this unremarked-upon obscures Bush's role in the processes Palko is discussing (namely, increasing Republican weakness in the nation's largest counties).
One might say that there were many more counties carried by at least 0.1%, or by at least 0.075%, of the national vote in 2000 and 2004 than in previous close elections, which may in some way compromise the comparison. However, the increase in the number of such counties was entirely due to the Democrats carrying more such counties. Bush carried three counties by at least 0.1% of the national vote in both 2000 and 2004--a smaller absolute number than any of Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1968, or Ford in 1976 (or Hughes in 1916), and indeed a smaller absolute number than any winning nominee since the 1800s (when there appear to have been many fewer counties giving anyone such margins). He carried six counties by 0.075% of the national vote in 2000, and seven in 2004, as compared to six for Dewey in 1948, eight for Nixon in 1960, seven for Nixon in 1968, and eight for Ford in 1976.
Finally, I didn't include 1896, due to the lack of county data for a number of states, including, particularly importantly, Louisiana and Texas. 1896 would be a particularly interesting election to be able to include because Bryan would be a candidate one would expect to have been able to come close to winning despite a historically poor performance in the nation's large counties. Based on the information we do have, McKinley carried 18 counties by at least 0.1% of the national popular vote, and Bryan carried two (for a proportional split of 90%-10%). From the outstanding and semi-outstanding states, it seems unlikely that there are any counties McKinley carried by a major margin that I am missing. It doesn't seem unlikely that Bryan carried Orleans Parish by at least 0.1% of the national vote; Orleans Parish gave Wilson a margin greater than 0.1% of the national vote in both 1912 and 1916 (and did so even for Davis in 1924). On the other hand, it seems unlikely that any county in Texas gave Bryan a major margin in 1896; no county in Texas gave Wilson a major margin in his 1916 victory, and indeed, from 1916 on (1916 being the first election for which county-level data for Texas are available), the first election in which any county in Texas gave any nominee a major margin was 1936 (with none doing so even for FDR in his 1932 landslide). If the actual split of major county margins in 1896 was 18/3, then Bryan carried 14.3% of these counties. It would take significant new information to make Bryan's performance amongst the large counties in this election not historically bad for a narrow-election candidate. Noteworthily, it seems likely he did substantially worse, by this metric, than any of Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1968, or Ford in 1976, but that he did comparably to Bush in 2000 and 2004 (if better than Trump in 2016 or 2020).
Comments
Post a Comment