electoral tak

On election night 2020, Chris Stirewalt mentioned, 'we've all seen the presidential map where you can walk from coast to coast on red counties.' 

1892 was the first election in which it was possible for a party to win a series of contiguous counties from one coast to the other. Beginning with that election, these are the elections in which one nominee or another won a series of contiguous counties from coast to coast. (It is possible for both nominees to do so, but this has never happened.) If the winner of the election was a different nominee, he or she is named underneath.

1896: William Jennings Bryan
(election winner: William McKinley)

1904: Theodore Roosevelt

1912: Woodrow Wilson

1916: Woodrow Wilson

1920: Warren Harding

1924: Calvin Coolidge

1928: Herbert Hoover

1932: Franklin Roosevelt

1936: Franklin Roosevelt

1940: Franklin Roosevelt

1944: Franklin Roosevelt

1948: Harry Truman

1952: Dwight Eisenhower

1956: Dwight Eisenhower

1960: Richard Nixon
(election winner: John Kennedy)

1964: Lyndon Johnson

1968: Richard Nixon

1972: Richard Nixon

1980: Ronald Reagan

1984: Ronald Reagan

1988: George H. W. Bush

2000: George W. Bush

2004: George W. Bush

2008: John McCain
(election winner: Barack Obama)

2012: Mitt Romney
(election winner: Barack Obama)

2016: Donald Trump

2020: Donald Trump
(election winner: Joe Biden)

William Jennings Bryan is the only Democrat to date to carry counties that one could walk from coast to coast on and yet lose the presidency. Richard Nixon in 1960 was the first Republican to do so, but since him, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump in 2020 have also done so.

A number of Democratic presidents have been elected in years when neither nominee carried a contiguous coast-to-coast stretch of counties (Grover Cleveland in 1892, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996). The only Republicans to be elected in years when neither nominee did so were William McKinley in 1900 and William Howard Taft in 1908--both of whom were running against William Jennings Bryan. 

The presidents to win despite their opponent winning a stretch of counties one could walk from coast to coast on are William McKinley (in 1896 only), John Kennedy, Barack Obama (twice), and Joe Biden. Before 2000, this was relatively rare, but this still-short list now includes the last two Democrats to have won a presidential election.

It was also relatively rare even for neither nominee to win such a stretch of counties. This happened only in 1892, 1900, 1908, 1976, 1992, and 1996.

(1908 was a close call, but I believe Bryan managed to stop Taft's contiguity by carrying Butler, Montgomery, and Darke Counties, Ohio, and Wabash and White Counties, Illinois.)

Before 2000, the most consecutive elections in which a party had carried counties that one could walk from coast to coast on was five--the five elections from 1932 through 1948, in which the Democrats did so. In 2020, the Republicans set a new record of six consecutive elections of doing so. 

---

Wikipedia gives a number of counties carried by each nominee for most elections between 1840 and 1972; Dave Leip's atlas does so for every election from 1948 on; and Louis Jacobson did so for every election from 1984 through 2016 (national winner is bolded):

1840
Wikipedia
Harrison: 699
van Buren: 477

1848
Wikipedia
Cass: 753
Taylor: 676

1856
Wikipedia
Buchanan: 1,083
Frémont: 366
Fillmore: 263

1864
Wikipedia
Lincoln 728
McClellan 400

1868
Wikipedia
Grant 991
Seymour 713

1872
Wikipedia
Grant 1,335
Greeley 833

1876
Wikipedia
Tilden 1,301
Hayes 947

1888
Wikipedia
Cleveland 1,290
Harrison 1,157

1892
Wikipedia
Cleveland 1,389
Harrison 1,017
Weaver 276

1896
Donald Richard Deskins et al.
Bryan: 1,436
McKinley: 1,182

1900
Wikipedia
McKinley 1,385
Bryan 1,340

1904
Wikipedia
Roosevelt 1,611
Parker 1,133

1908
Wikipedia
Taft 1,494
Bryan 1,355

1912
Wikipedia
Wilson 1,969
Roosevelt 768
Taft 232
Debs 4

1916
Wikipedia
Wilson 2,039
Hughes 976

1920
Wikipedia
Harding 1,949
Cox 1,101

1924
Wikipedia
Coolidge ?
Davis 1,279
La Follette 225

1928
Wikipedia
Hoover 2,174
Smith 914

1932
Wikipedia
Roosevelt 2,722
Hoover 374

1936
Wikipedia
Roosevelt 2,634
Landon 461

1940
Wikipedia
Roosevelt 1,947
Willkie 1,147

1944
Wikipedia
Roosevelt 1,751
Dewey 1,343

1948
Leip
Truman: 1,640
Dewey: 1,193
Thurmond: 265

1952
Leip
Eisenhower: 2,105
Stevenson: 994

1956
Leip
Eisenhower: 2,143
Stevenson: 924

1960
Wikipedia
Nixon 1,857
Kennedy 1,200

Leip
Nixon: 1,848
Kennedy: 1,186

1964
Wikipedia
Johnson 2,264
Goldwater 826

Leip
Johnson: 2,275
Goldwater: 826 

1968
Leip
Nixon: 1,849
Humphrey: 684
Wallace: 578

1972
Wikipedia
Nixon ?
McGovern 130

Leip
Nixon: 2,980
McGovern: 131

1976
Leip
Carter: 1,711
Ford: 1,403

1980
Leip
Reagan: 2,213
Carter: 900

1984
Leip & Jacobson
Reagan: 2,781
Mondale: 334 

1988
Leip & Jacobson
George H. W. Bush: 2,295
Dukakis: 820

1992
Leip & Jacobson
George H. W. Bush: 1,582
Clinton: 1,519

1996
Leip & Jacobson
Dole: 1,587
Clinton: 1,526

2000
Jacobson
Bush: 2,397
Gore: 659

Leip
Bush: 2,439
Gore: 674 

2004
Leip & Jacobson
Bush: 2,530
Kerry: 583

2008
Leip & Jacobson
McCain: 2,238
Obama: 875

2012
Leip & Jacobson
Romney: 2,420
Obama: 693

2016
Jacobson
Trump: 2,623
Hillary Clinton: 489

Leip
Trump: 2,622
Hillary Clinton: 490 

2020
Leip
Trump: 2,574
Biden: 538

After the 2016 election, Costas Panagopoulos said that 

The number of counties won is not necessarily a meaningful indicator, absent any consideration of the population of these counties.

Which in one sense is true. However, it is striking that, historically, the winner of the election generally has won a plurality of the country's counties. Only in five elections before 1992 is it known that the winner of the election did not win the largest number of counties:

1844: unknown

1848: Cass carries more counties; Taylor wins.

1852: unknown

1860: unknown

1876: Tilden carries more counties; Hayes wins.

1880: unknown

1884: unknown

1888: Cleveland carries more counties; Harrison wins.

1896: Bryan carries more counties; McKinley wins.

1960: Nixon carries more counties; Kennedy wins.

1992: George H. W. Bush carries more counties; Clinton wins.

1996: Dole carries more counties; Clinton wins.

2008: McCain carries more counties; Obama wins.

2012: Romney carries more counties; Obama wins.

 

In each of those five elections before 1992, it was the Democrat who was carrying more counties whilst the Republican was winning the election. Furthermore, in the close election of 1916, Wilson carried many more counties than Hughes (whilst only barely winning nationally).

 

One reason this is important to note is that carrying more or fewer counties than would be expected given the level of one's support across the country is an indicator of how concentrated or dispersed one's support is. Jacobson, for example, writes that the disparity in number of counties carried is attributable to 'longtime Republican dominance in rural areas'. However, the Republican dominance in rural areas is not as 'longtime' as one may think, and certainly wasn't nearly as overwhelming as it is now even a few decades ago--Dukakis carried more counties than any of Gore, Kerry, Obama in 2012, Hillary Clinton, or Biden in 2020; and Carter carried more counties in 1980 than Obama carried in 2008. (In 1976, of course, Carter actually carried more counties than Ford.)

 

Republicans have now carried the greater number of counties in eleven straight presidential elections, beginning in 1980. The second-longest known such run is five elections (for the Democrats), from 1932 through 1948, although it is possible that there were longer runs (also for the Democrats) of up to six elections from 1876 through 1896 or 1840 through 1860 (or nine elections from 1828 through 1860; Obeng uses 1840 as the starting-point for his analysis of bellwether counties). And of course, this looks unlikely to change any time soon; indeed, the trend is only increasing, as Biden won the national popular vote by about 4.5% whilst winning fewer counties than John Kerry carried whilst losing the national popular vote by 2.5% sixteen years prior.