The Bryan-only-Democratic-loser states

There are, currently, seven states that William Jennings Bryan is the only losing Democrat ever to have carried. (Right up until 2016, there were eight. Nevada was never one, because it had voted for Winfield Scott Hancock in 1880; and North Dakota was never one, because it simply never voted for Bryan at all, nor has, to date, voted for any losing Democrat.) We can call these the 'Bryan-only-Dem-loser' states.

If I am not mistaken, Bryan is the only losing nominee of either major party who remains the only losing nominee of his party that multiple states have voted for. (And, while he did run thrice, they all voted for him in 1896--so they would all be Bryan-only-Dem-loser states even if he had run only the first time.) The other instances I've found of a losing nominee still being the only losing nominee of his or her party to have carried a state, involved only one state per nominee--Cass is still the only losing Democrat to have carried Ohio; Ford, the only losing Republican to have carried New Mexico; Dewey in 1948, the only losing Republican to have carried Maryland. 

At this point, there are relatively few instances of a state or group of states having voted for only one losing nominee of one of the two parties. But there used to be more, and they don't all seem to necessarily have been that significant. As recently as 2000, Winfield Scott Hancock was the only losing Democrat to have carried California. James Blaine was the only losing Republican to have carried either California or Nevada until 1960 (he remained the only losing one to have carried Nevada until 1976). 

In Bryan's case, however, they seem to point to the power of a particular candidate to innovate in building a new coalition, but also his inability to transfer this coalition in an enduring way to his party.

Of course, this is not entirely the case; all the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states save South Dakota voted for Wilson in the close election of 1916, and four of the seven voted for Truman in the close election of 1948. But even the span of time from 1896 to 1948 has now been outdistanced by the span of time in which the states that last voted Democratic in 1964, have not voted Democratic. (Six of these states are Bryan-only-Dem-loser states.) 

There are two other clusters of states that arguably demonstrated something similar about the nominee who remained, for some time, the only losing nominee of his party to have carried them: the two states which Al Smith was the only losing Democrat to have carried until 1968; and the five states that Goldwater was the only losing Republican to have carried until (at least) 1992.

Now, these groups of states had fewer opportunities to vote for losing nominees of the innovative nominee's party--at least, before they actually did so. Rhode Island's and Massachusetts' only opportunities to vote for a losing Democrat before 1968 were 1952 and 1956 (although it could be pointed out that 1952 was non-trivially closer than 1928--and Rhode Island did in fact come close to voting for Stevenson that year). Three of the five former Goldwater-only-GOP-loser states voted for HW Bush in 1992, and before that, their only opportunity to vote for a losing Republican after Goldwater was 1976 (which, it could be argued, is still significant given that it was a close election--and even though Carter is a Southerner, Ford carried Virginia and Oklahoma [which had hitherto been Nixon-only-GOP-loser states], and did in fact come close to carrying one of the Goldwater-only-GOP-loser states, Mississippi). That said, Georgia's run of Goldwater being the only Republican loser to have carried it ran until 1996; and Louisiana's, until 2008. 

Furthermore, neither Massachusetts nor Rhode Island ever voted for a Republican loser between 1928 and 1968 (although FDR's margin in Massachusetts in 1932 was just inside 4%). Of the former Goldwater-only-GOP-loser states, only Georgia ever voted for a losing Democrat again (for Carter in 1980)--although Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi all came very close to doing so as well in 1980. 

But still, it could be said that Smith and Goldwater remaining the only loser these states had voted for from their respective parties for some substantial time was meaningful. 

Of course, the Smith-only-Dem-loser states did end up being more firmly and consistently aligned with the Democracy. And the Goldwater-only-GOP-loser states did end up being more firmly and consistently aligned with the GOP (even if--possibly--only temporarily, in Georgia's case; even if Georgia doesn't vote for another Republican loser again for the foreseeable future, it will still have voted for three Republican losers in the space of 16 years: Dole in '96, McCain in '08, and Romney in '12). That hasn't happened in the case of the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states.

In fact, not only is Bryan the only Democratic loser to have carried those seven states, but they have voted for many Republican losers (unlike the Smith-only-Dem-loser states and the Goldwater-only-GOP-loser states). This wasn't so much the case of those Bryan-only-Dem-loser states on the Pacific slope plus Montana--from 1892 to 1960, Montana was a Harrison-only-GOP-loser state (as was Washington, which was also a Bryan-only-Dem-loser state until 1968). From 1912 to 1960, Utah was a Taft-only-GOP-loser state. Until 1960, Idaho had never voted for a Republican loser at all.

But now, all the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states except Montana have voted for five losing Republicans in just the last 30 years (for Trump in 2020, Romney, McCain, Dole, and HW Bush in 1992). (Montana has voted for four losing Republicans in just the last 30 years.) All of them additionally voted for Ford in 1976 and for Nixon in 1960, raising all their totals in the last 16 elections to seven votes for losing Republicans (six for Montana). This is already a large number, without taking into account the differentials that begin to occur if we go back in time to before 1952.

Not only that, but the remaining Bryan-only-Dem-loser states are very Republican. All seem likely to add substantially to the number of losing Republicans they will have voted for before their first vote for a losing Democrat since Bryan (which is not a comment on the state of the Republican Party; the only way this wouldn't be the case is if the Republican Party just won every election from here on out for the foreseeable future). Out of the last 16 elections (from 1960 on), a Bryan-only-Dem-loser state has been the Most Republican State in 11 (all save 1964, 1972, 1992, 2008, and 2016). All seven of the remaining Bryan-only-Dem-loser states were part of Bush's 'fornia' in both 2000 and 2004 (although Colorado was not in either election); all save Utah were part of Trump's 'fornia' in 2016; and four of the seven (this time including Utah) were part of Trump's 'fornia' in 2020. Trump got over 55.5% in all of them in 2020. All of them save Utah were states in which Biden's vote share was lower than Dukakis'.

Now, Cass remains the only losing Democrat to have carried Ohio, and one might say that even though that's just one state, it's a large state, whereas the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states are all small. That's true. But until 2020, Ohio had voted for only five losing Republicans--the same number of losing Republicans that most of the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states have voted for in the last 30 years. Now, of course, it seems likely the number of losing Republicans Ohio will have voted for, before its second vote for a losing Democrat, will begin to mount rather more quickly. Even now, though (and again, this might change quickly), the last time any nominee of either party got over 55.5% in Ohio was 1984; and even then, it wasn't part of Reagan's 'fornia' (as he didn't win it by at least 20%). (In 1988, HW Bush's vote share in Ohio was--barely--over 55%.)

In short, as other groups of states that only one losing nominee of one of the two parties had carried have largely melted away, the Bryan-only-Dem-loser states are already a curious phenomenon, and they don't seem to be going away anytime soon.

As I noted above, I haven't found any other still-extant groups of x-only-y-loser states (although there might be, and I just missed them). Nor have I found many that lasted for a substantial length of time in the past, although again, I could well have missed some. Immediately after both the 1992 and 2008 elections, there were two HW Bush-only-GOP-loser and two McCain-only-GOP-loser states, respectively; but in all four cases they lost their status in the immediately following election. There were three Nixon-only-GOP-loser states until at least 1992 (until 2008, in the case of Kentucky and Tennessee), and three Harrison-only-GOP-loser states until 1960 (none of which voted for any losing Democrat in the interim apart from Bryan).

Speaking of Cass, there actually was a good number of Cass-only-Dem-loser states deep into the 20th century. There were six until 1876 (which was already 28 years after Cass' candidacy); the remaining five all lasted until at least 1968. This would seem to testify, not so much to anything particularly innovative about Cass' candidacy, but to the fact that the Democracy had a fairly vibrant and reliable free-soil base in the Second Party System that largely forsook it with the rise of the Republican Party. (In addition, Illinois and New Hampshire were never Cass-only-Dem-loser states only because they also voted for van Buren in 1840; and Minnesota--which borders two states that were Cass-only-Dem-loser states until 1988--was not a state until the 1860 election.) 

Not every candidacy that is the only losing candidacy of its party to have lost a particular state or states is necessarily innovative (as is especially obviously the case when these states lose their status in the immediately following election); but those losing candidacies, all the states that vote for which have already voted for a losing nominee of the party of the candidacy in question, are particularly noteworthy. Now--meaning, in the last three elections (with none of Romney, Hillary Clinton, or Trump in 2020 being the first loser of his or her party that any particular state had voted for)--it is perhaps not that significant, as there are only five states that have never voted for a loser of one or the other party. 2008 is the last election in which a nominee became the first of his or her party to carry a particular state despite losing the national election, and looks likely to remain either the last or second-to-last for the foreseeable future (with the last that could happen in the foreseeable future being, perhaps, a losing Democrat carrying Arizona). 

With that in mind, Kerry in 2004 was noteworthy in that every state he carried had voted for at least one previous losing Democrat (although in New Hampshire's case, the last one was Cass). Dole in 1996 was the fifth-to-last losing nominee not to have been the first loser of his party that any of his states had voted for, followed by Dukakis in 1988 (although, again, two of Dukakis' states' last losing Democratic vote had been for Cass, and one, for Seymour), Mondale in 1984, Carter in 1980, McGovern in 1972, Stevenson in both 1956 and 1952, Dewey in 1944, Willkie in 1940, Landon in 1936, Hoover in 1932, Davis in 1924, Cox in 1920, and Parker in 1904 (the longer ago such a candidacy, the more noteworthy, of course). 

There were initially two Gore-only-Dem-loser states (one voted for Kerry in the immediately following election). There was only ever one Ford-only-GOP-loser state, New Mexico.

Humphrey initially had four Humphrey-only-Dem-loser states. Now, one of them was Hawaii, and 1968 was the first opportunity it had to vote for a losing Democrat, and it did so again in 1980 (the second opportunity it had to do so, and the first apart from the 1972 disaster). The other three were somewhat significant, though. Minnesota would (like Hawaii) next vote for a losing Democrat in 1980; Pennsylvania and Maine would not until 2000. To date, Pennsylvania has voted for only three losing Democrats (although, to be fair, it has voted for only five losing Republicans). 

In addition to Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, and Oklahoma, the relatively young state of Arizona was also initially a Nixon '60-only-GOP-loser state--which lasted only until 1964, of course. If not for Utah's flukish Taft vote in 1912, Utah would also have been a Nixon-only-GOP-loser state (if only until 1976).

There was only ever one Dewey '48-only-GOP-loser state, Maryland.

Initially, there were four Hughes-only-GOP-loser states--two Upper Southern states and two Northern border states. Delaware's status as a Hughes-only-GOP-loser state would last only until 1932; Indiana's, only until 1940. New Jersey's would last until 1948, although this meant its only earlier opportunities to vote for a Republican loser were in 1932, 1936, 1940, and 1944 (in which the Republican lost by between 7.5% and over 24.3%). West Virginia's would last until 2008.