Trump breakthrough counties

I realised I haven't made a list of Trump's breakthrough counties. 

In his December 2016 article 'Pssst...Trump: You Won By Running to Clinton's Left', Jud Lounsbury wrote that 'Trump’s “historic victory” came by winning Dem strongholds within what was supposed to be Clinton’s firewall in Rust Belt state[s].' He then detailed a number of counties that had voted Democratic in every election since at least 1992. The least-longstandingly-blue counties he mentioned were Northampton and Luzerne, PA: 

Pennsylvania’s Erie has been Democratic since 1988. Luzerne and Northampton counties have voted Democrat[ic] since 1992. All of these counties moved from blue to red in 2016, costing the Clinton camp approximately the same number of votes as the 66,000 Trump margin of victory statewide.

I would distinguish between counties that have voted Democratic from 1992 on, and those that have voted Democratic from 1988, or any point before that, on. As David Jarman wrote of Kenosha and Trumbull (and, incorrectly, Monroe, MI) in May 2017, 'bastions of organized labor that kept the Democratic faith over the decades, even during their 1980s low-water mark.' As it happens, Kenosha and Trumbull voted Democratic in all three of the elections of the 1980s. (Monroe did so in none of them.) But even 1988 alone was a low-water mark for the Democracy in a way that no subsequent election has been. When Lounsbury is discussing Wisconsin, he seems to admit as much (Luzerne and Northampton are the only counties in his entire discussion that voted Republican in 1988); after noting Kenosha County, he adds:

Add in another nine counties that have been in the Democratic column since Dukakis, if the Clinton camp had been able to keep the map blue, they would have had more than enough votes to secure a victory.

Especially given that there are some counties in Wisconsin that flipped to Trump in 2016 after having voted Democratic just six times in a row (i.e., from 1992 through 2012), this would seem to imply that Lounsbury sees voting consistently Democratic from 1988 on as qualitatively more significant than having done so from 1992 on (even if it was just from 1988 on). (Likewise, when discussing Michigan, he notes three other counties, aside from Saginaw, that voted Democratic from 1988 on [presumably Bay, Gogebic, and Lake], even though there is a county [Isabella] flipped to Trump after having voted Democratic precisely six times in a row, that cast considerably more votes than Lake and Gogebic combined. It is, again, only with Pennsylvania that he resorts to counties that voted for Bush Sr over Dukakis before beginning their Democratic runs.)

It is still meaningful if a county has voted Democratic for five elections in a row (i.e., 1992-2012), but it is also true, as Democrats like to point out, that Democrats won the national popular vote in four of those five elections, and in the exceptional case, lost it by only 2.5%.

So what were the Trump breakthrough counties? (This is referring to the 2016 election only; number of votes cast was in 2016.) (Major party vote shares are given for 2016 and 2020.)

Counties that last voted Republican in or before 1984

Woodruff, AR (1972) (-Trump '20) (2,571) (52.4%-43.5%) (62.3%-34.6%)

Las Animas, CO (1972) (-Trump '20) (6,793) (54.6%-39.0%) (53.8%-43.9%)
Pueblo, CO (1972) (-Biden '20) (78,646) (46.1%-45.6%) (49.6%-47.9%)

Baker, GA (1972) (-Trump '20) (1,440) (53.8%-45.1%) (57.7%-41.9%)
Dooly, GA (1972) (-Trump '20) (3,859) (50.6%-48.5%) (52.6%-46.5%)
Quitman, GA (1972) (-Trump '20) (1,044) (55.1%-44.2%) (54.6%-44.9%)
Twiggs, GA (1972) (-Trump '20) (4,056) (50.1%-48.6%) (53.3%-46.0%)

Alexander, IL (1972) (-Trump '20) (2,820) (53.1%-44.8%) (56.8%-42.6%)
Fulton, IL (1984) (-Trump '20) (15,651) (53.8%-38.8%) (59.0%-38.9%)
Henderson, IL (1984) (-Trump '20) (3,489) (61.3%-32.8%) (65.6%-32.6%)
Knox, IL (1984) (-Trump '20) (22,243) (47.7%-44.8%) (51.8%-46.2%)
Mercer, IL (1984) (-Trump '20) (8,447) (56.4%-36.0%) (60.8%-36.8%)
Putnam, IL (1984) (-Trump '20) (3,086) (56.8%-36.9%) (58.7%-39.4%)

Boone, IA (1980) (-Trump '20) (14,196) (52.7%-39.0%) (56.7%-41.1%)
Buchanan, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (10,252) (53.8%-38.7%) (59.6%-38.7%)
Cerro Gordo, IA (1980) (-Trump '20) (22,965) (50.6%-42.9%) (52.3%-46.0%)
Chickasaw, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (6,435) (58.2%-35.2%) (65.0%-33.7%)
Clarke, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (4,454) (60.9%-32.9%) (67.3%-31.4%)
Clayton, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (9,129) (58.2%-35.5%) (63.6%-34.8%)
Clinton, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (23,067) (48.9%-43.8%) (54.1%-43.8%)
Des Moines, IA (1972) (-Trump '20) (19,103) (49.9%-43.0%) (53.1%-44.6%)
Dubuque, IA (1956) (-Trump '20) (49,721) (47.2%-46.0%) (50.5%-47.6%)
Floyd, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (8,060) (54.3%-39.4%) (58.9%-39.5%)
Howard, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (4,559) (57.3%-36.8%) (63.1%-35.7%)
Jackson, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (10,310) (56.5%-37.2%) (62.3%-36.2%)
Jones, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (10,133) (56.5%-37.4%) (59.8%-38.3%)
Lee, IA (1980) (-Trump '20) (16,151) (54.5%-38.5%) (58.4%-39.1%)
Mitchell, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (5,417) (58.9%-34.9%) (63.2%-35.3%)
Muscatine, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (19,434) (49.3%-43.1%) (52.4%-45.3%)
Tama, IA (1984) (-Trump '20) (8,752) (56.8%-36.5%) (58.6%-39.5%)
Wapello, IA (1972) (-Trump '20) (15,149) (57.5%-36.9%) (60.9%-37.2%)
Webster, IA (1980) (-Trump '20) (17,430) (57.7%-36.2%) (61.4%-37.1%)
Worth, IA (1980) (-Trump '20) (4,257) (57.6%-35.9%) (61.7%-36.0%)

Elliott, KY (never; first voted in 1872) (-Trump '20) (2,855) (70.1%-25.9%) (75.0%-23.8%)

Bay, MI (1984) (-Trump '20) (52,977) (53.2%-40.6%) (55.0%-43.4%)
Gogebic, MI (1972) (-Trump '20) (7,329) (54.4%-39.6%) (55.6%-43.1%)
Lake, MI (1984) (-Trump '20) (5,328) (59.0%-36.2%) (62.3%-36.1%)
Saginaw, MI (1984) (-Biden '20) (94,320) (48.0%-46.8%) (49.4%-49.1%)

Freeborn, MN (1980) (-Trump '20) (16,051) (54.9%-37.6%) (57.0%-41.0%)
Itasca, MN (1928) (-Trump '20) (23,880) (54.1%-37.8%) (57.4%-40.6%)
Lac qui Parle, MN (1984) (-Trump '20) (3,857) (59.4%-33.8%) (62.6%-35.8%)
Mower, MN (1960) (-Trump '20) (17,725) (49.8%-42.0%) (51.8%-46.0%)
Rice, MN (1972) (-Trump '20) (32,443) (47.6%-44.5%) (48.9%-48.8%)
Swift, MN (1952) (-Trump '20) (4,996) (59.3%-33.8%) (63.9%-34.6%)

Roosevelt, MT (1984) (-Trump '20) (3,648) (49.2%-42.7%) (49.7%-47.6%)

Broome, NY (1984) (-Biden '20) (85,205) (47.6%-45.6%) (50.5%-47.1%)
Niagara, NY (1984) (-Trump '20) (91,801) (56.2%-38.5%) (53.9%-44.2%)

Gates, NC (1972) (-Trump '20) (5,392) (53.3%-44.2%) (56.4%-42.6%)
Richmond, NC (1972) (-Trump '20) (19,328) (53.7%-44.0%) (57.0%-42.2%)
Robeson, NC (1972) (-Trump '20) (40,858) (50.8%-46.5%) (58.9%-40.3%)

Ashtabula, OH (1984) (-Trump '20) (41,180) (56.6%-37.8%) (60.8%-37.3%)
Trumbull, OH (1972) (-Trump '20) (96,676) (50.7%-44.5%) (54.6%-44.0%)

Columbia, OR (1928) (-Trump '20) (26,618) (49.7%-38.2%) (53.2%-42.9%)

Erie, PA (1984) (-Biden '20) (123,679) (48.0%-46.4%) (49.8%-48.8%)

Kent, RI (1984) (-Biden '20) (82,053) (46.7%-46.1%) (52.8%-45.1%)

McCormick, SC (1972) (-Trump '20) (5,216) (50.8%-47.5%) (51.9%-47.2%)

Jefferson, TX (1972) (-Trump '20) (87,618) (48.9%-48.4%) (50.2%-48.6%)

Covington City, VA (1984) (-Trump '20) (2,382) (56.6%-38.4%) (60.7%-37.0%)

Cowlitz, WA (1980) (-Trump '20) (45,692) (51.3%-38.0%) (57.1%-39.7%)
Grays Harbor, WA (1928) (-Trump '20) (28,367) (48.0%-41.0%) (51.7%-45.1%)
Mason, WA (1984) (-Trump '20) (28,073) (47.2%-41.4%) (50.2%-46.3%)
Pacific, WA (1952) (-Trump '20) (10,716) (48.9%-42.1%) (49.4%-48.3%)

Adams, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (10,130) (58.9%-37.0%) (62.3%-36.6%)
Buffalo, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (6,981) (58.0%-36.2%) (61.9%-36.6%)
Crawford, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (7,728) (49.6%-44.2%) (53.1%-45.5%)
Dunn, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (22,106) (52.0%-40.9%) (56.0%-42.1%)
Jackson, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (9,267) (52.9%-41.2%) (56.9%-41.8%)
Kenosha, WI (1972) (-Trump '20) (76,304) (47.2%-46.9%) (50.7%-47.6%)
Pepin, WI (1972) (-Trump '20) (3,735) (59.1%-36.0%) (62.4%-35.9%)
Trempealeau, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (13,687) (53.8%-41.2%) (57.4%-40.9%)
Vernon, WI (1984) (-Trump '20) (14,275) (49.1%-44.6%) (51.6%-46.8%)

Counties that last voted Republican in 1988

Windham, CT (-Trump '20) (50,823) (50.7%-42.9%) (51.1%-46.8%)

Jefferson, FL (-Trump '20) (7,645) (51.1%-46.1%) (52.9%-46.0%)
Monroe, FL (-Trump '20) (42,478) (51.0%-44.1%) (53.4%-45.5%)

Whiteside, IL (-Trump '20) (25,279) (49.3%-43.1%) (53.1%-44.8%)

LaPorte, IN (-Trump '20) (45,203) (49.7%-43.4%) (52.6%-45.4%)

Androscoggin, ME (-Trump '20) (55,601) (50.8%-41.4%) (49.9%-47.0%)
Aroostook, ME (-Trump '20) (35,097) (55.3%-38.1%) (59.0%-39.0%)
Franklin, ME (-Trump '20) (17,085) (48.0%-42.6%) (50.3%-46.4%)
Kennebec, ME (-Biden '20) (68,411) (47.8%-44.3%) (48.6%-48.3%)
Oxford, ME (-Trump '20) (32,405) (52.0%-39.0%) (52.8%-44.1%)
Somerset, ME (-Trump '20) (26,907) * (57.6%-34.9%) (60.4%-37.0%)

Isabella, MI (-Trump '20) (25,392) (48.3%-44.7%) (50.3%-47.7%)

Fillmore, MN (-Trump '20) (11,055) (56.7%-35.0%) (60.1%-37.5%)
Winona, MN (-Biden '20) (26,074) (46.5%-43.6%) (49.1%-48.7%)

Gloucester, NJ (-Biden '20) (141,254) (47.8%-47.3%) (49.986%-48.1%)

Franklin, NY (-Trump '20) (16,640) (48.5%-43.1%) (50.2%-48.0%)
Rensselaer, NY (-Biden '20) (70,892) (47.1%-45.7%) (51.6%-46.0%)
St Lawrence, NY (-Trump '20) (38,761) (50.9%-42.1%) (54.8%-43.1%)

Erie, OH (-Trump '20) (37,862) (51.9%-42.4%) (54.8%-43.3%)
Montgomery, OH (-Biden '20) (259,876) (47.7%-47.0%) (50.2%-47.9%)
Portage, OH (-Trump '20) (76,762) (52.1%-42.2%) (55.4%-43.0%)

Luzerne, PA (-Trump '20) (134,983) (57.9%-38.6%) (56.6%-42.3%)
Northampton, PA (-Biden '20) (143,519) (49.6%-45.8%) (49.6%-48.9%)

Hardeman, TN (-Trump '20) (9,273) (53.1%-45.1%) (57.2%-41.5%)

Grant, WI (-Trump '20) (24,368) (50.7%-41.3%) (55.2%-43.0%)
Lafayette, WI (-Trump '20) (7,662) (51.9%-42.9%) (56.4%-42.6%)
Sauk, WI (-Biden '20) (31,357) (47.2%-46.9%) (50.02%-48.3%)

* Somerset voted for Perot in 1992, although Clinton got a higher vote share than Bush Sr. 

These counties were located in these 26 states, with particular concentrations in Iowa (20), Wisconsin (12), Minnesota (8), Illinois (7), and Maine (6) (and a curious relative concentration in Washington State [4]). The 27 that specifically voted Democratic from 1992-2012 were located in these 13 states.

27 Trump breakthrough counties cast at least 0.025% of the national vote in 2016:

Montgomery, OH (259,876) (-Biden '20)
Northampton, PA (143,519) (-Biden '20)
Luzerne, PA (134,983) (-Trump '20)
Erie, PA (123,679) (-Biden '20)
Trumbull, OH (96,676) (-Trump '20)
Saginaw, MI (94,320) (-Biden '20)
Niagara, NY (91,801) (-Trump '20)
Jefferson, TX (87,618) (-Trump '20)
Broome, NY (85,205) (-Biden '20)
Kent, RI (82,053) (-Biden '20)
Pueblo, CO (78,646) (-Biden '20)
Portage, OH (76,762) (-Trump '20)
Kenosha, WI (76,304) (-Trump '20)
Rensselaer, NY (70,892) (-Biden '20)
Kennebec, ME (68,411) (-Biden '20)
Androscoggin, ME (55,601) (-Trump '20)
Bay, MI (52,977) (-Trump '20)
Windham, CT (50,823) (-Trump '20)
Dubuque, IA (49,721) (-Trump '20)
Cowlitz, WA (45,692) (-Trump '20)
LaPorte, IN (45,203) (-Trump '20)
Monroe, FL (42,478) (-Trump '20)
Ashtabula, OH (41,180) (-Trump '20)
Robeson, NC (40,858) (-Trump '20)
St Lawrence, NY (38,761) (-Trump '20)
Erie, OH (37,862) (-Trump '20)
Aroostook, ME (35,097) (-Trump '20)

Of these 27, six voted Democratic in all three elections of the 1980s (as Jarman mentioned Kenosha and Trumbull having done):

Trumbull, OH (96,676) (-Trump '20)
Jefferson, TX (87,618) (-Trump '20)
Pueblo, CO (78,646) (-Biden '20)
Kenosha, WI (76,304) (-Trump '20)
Dubuque, IA (49,721) (-Trump '20)
Robeson, NC (40,858) (-Trump '20)

(Followed by Rice, MN.)

14 voted Democratic in every election from (at least) 1988 through 2012 (i.e., the Democratic voting streak Trump broke in them included at least one vote for a badly-losing Democrat):

Erie, PA (123,679) (-Biden '20)
Trumbull, OH (96,676) (-Trump '20)
Saginaw, MI (94,320) (-Biden '20)
Niagara, NY (91,801) (-Trump '20)
Jefferson, TX (87,618) (-Trump '20)
Broome, NY (85,205) (-Biden '20)
Kent, RI (82,053) (-Biden '20)
Pueblo, CO (78,646) (-Biden '20)
Kenosha, WI (76,304) (-Trump '20)
Bay, MI (52,977) (-Trump '20)
Dubuque, IA (49,721) (-Trump '20)
Cowlitz, WA (45,692) (-Trump '20)
Ashtabula, OH (41,180) (-Trump '20)
Robeson, NC (40,858) (-Trump '20)

(Followed, again, by Rice, MN.)

It seems that these counties' likelihood of voting for Trump again was positively correlated with the strength of their previous Democratic loyalty, and negatively correlated with population.

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What (if any) were the counties that voted for Trump in 2016 after having voted Democratic from 1996 through 2012, and 2004 through 2012? (In 2000, only two counties flipped from Dole to Gore, and neither of them voted for Trump.)

Voted for Trump in 2016 after voting Democratic 2004-2012

Conejos, CO (-Trump '20) (4,022) (47.6%-44.0%) (52.8%-45.2%)

Fayette, IA (-Trump '20) (9,975) (56.3%-37.0%) (60.3%-37.7%)
Jasper, IA (-Trump '20) (19,034) (55.5%-37.4%) (59.9%-38.3%)
Jefferson, IA (-Trump '20) (8,156) (46.0%-45.5%) (49.6%-48.2%)
Poweshiek, IA (-Trump '20) (9,833) (50.3%-43.8%) (55.8%-42.5%)
Winneshiek, IA (-Trump '20) (11,362) (47.0%-46.2%) (51.7%-46.6%)

Penobscot, ME (-Trump '20) (80,540) (51.7%-40.8%) (52.6%-44.2%)

Beltrami, MN (-Trump '20) (21,564) (50.005%-40.3%) (50.4%-47.2%)
Blue Earth, MN (-Biden '20) (33,593) (46.6%-43.0%) (50.8%-46.4%)
Chippewa, MN (-Trump '20) (6,222) (60.5%-31.8%) (64.3%-33.7%)
Kittson, MN (-Trump '20) (2,385) (56.6%-34.5%) (58.6%-38.1%)
Koochiching, MN (-Trump '20) (6,363) (56.1%-36.2%) (59.7%-38.4%)
Mahnomen, MN (-Trump '20) (2,197) (47.5%-44.5%) (49.6%-48.3%)
Nicollet, MN (-Biden '20) (18,096) (46.6%-43.6%) (50.3%-47.2%)
Norman, MN (-Trump '20) (3,261) (52.1%-38.8%) (56.8%-40.8%)

Thurston, NE (-Trump '20) (2,088) (49.95%-44.0%) (49.6%-47.2%)

Coös, NH (-Trump '20) (15,284) (50.9%-42.0%) (52.1%-46.2%)
Sullivan, NH (-Biden '20) (22,129) (47.6%-45.0%) (50.7%-47.1%)

Benson, ND (-Trump '20) (2,011) (46.2%-41.9%) (55.8%-41.9%)
Steele, ND (-Trump '20) (999) (53.9%-36.1%) (59.9%-36.0%)

Stark, OH (-Trump '20) (176,165) (55.9%-38.7%) (58.4%-39.9%)

Corson, SD (-Trump '20) (1,175) (50.04%-45.5%) (50.4%-48.5%)
Day, SD (-Trump '20) (2,747) (59.2%-35.5%) (63.1%-35.5%)
Roberts, SD (-Trump '20) (3,886) (55.1%-39.6%) (55.8%-42.4%)
Ziebach, SD (-Biden '20) (766) (48.0%-46.0%) (53.1%-44.6%)

Nelson, VA (-Trump '20) (8,318) (49.982%-44.4%) (51.7%-46.5%)

Price, WI (-Trump '20) (7,568) (60.2%-35.2%) (63.1%-35.5%)

These counties are located in 11 states, mostly in the Upper Midwest and Yankee Kingdom.

Voted for Trump in 2016 after voting Democratic 1996-2012

St Lucie, FL (-Trump '20) (140,847) (49.5%-47.1%) (50.4%-48.8%)

Suffolk, NY (-Trump '20) (681,254) (51.5%-44.6%) (49.30%-49.27%)

There are only two of these counties. This seems striking, in contrast with the 27 counties which voted Democratic from 1992 through 2012 and then flipped to Trump. In 2018, David Freedlander distinguished Suffolk County from Trump's (other) breakthroughs, pointing out the characteristics that had likely made it such a staunch bulwark of Republicanism in the Cold War era:

In the wake of the November 2016 elections, an image was formed in the public’s mind of “Trump Country,” those down-and-out places in the Rust Belt where the factory moved to Mexico a decade ago, the only decent jobs could be found at Walmart, and where white working-class voters threw their lot with someone who blamed other people—immigrants, Muslims, Black Lives Matter—for their problems. But it is impossible to talk about the Trump coalition without talking about places like Suffolk, filled with towns and people who have benefitted immensely from the global order that Trump promised to upend.

Conversely, in his spring 2020 article analysing the reasons for Bernie Sanders' failure in the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, Michael Tracey used Isabella County, Michigan (one of the 27 counties that tipped to Trump in 2016 after having voted Democratic precisely six consecutive times, from 1992 on) as illustrative of the 'crater[ing]' of Sanders' 'rural support' in 2020 compared to 2016:

Take, for instance, Isabella County, Michigan, where Sanders scored his highest margin of victory in the state against Hillary Clinton. Located in Michigan’s rural interior, Sanders won 66% of the vote there in 2016. In 2020, not only did he lose the county to Biden, his raw vote total declined by around 15% — even as voter turnout statewide increased by 32% compared to 2016.

 

The Bush-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump counties actually had a variety of profiles. There were 27 of these--as many as there were counties that flipped to Trump in 2016 after having voted Democratic in precisely six consecutive elections. Of these 27, all save three (Thurston, NE and Corson and Ziebach, SD) had voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Thurston, Corson, and Ziebach had all voted for Michael Dukakis and then switched to George H. W. Bush in 1992 (before all voting for Bill Clinton in 1996). So by 2004, voting Democratic was not a completely alien habit to any of them. Three of them--Beltrami, Koochiching, and Norman, MN--had been Bush breakthrough counties in 2000 that Kerry had reclaimed in 2004.

However, 20 of the 27 counties voted for Dukakis, and seven did not. This means that 17 of the 27 counties voted Democratic in every election from 1988 through 2012 save 2000. One of these--Blue Earth, MN--was cited by Eugene Puryear as an example of a county that it wasn't logical Biden would have won back 'without winning additional white workers, especially those lower down on the income scale'. (The other examples he gave were Erie, PA, Saginaw, MI, and Hillsborough, NH; Blue Earth narrowly beat out Rice, MN to be the biggest Kerry-Trump '16 county in the state, perhaps explaining the mention.)

The seven that did not vote for Dukakis were: Jefferson, IA, Penobscot, ME, Nicollet, MN, Coös, NH, Sullivan, NH, Stark, OH, and Nelson, VA. Of these seven, it would be fair to say that two of them--Coös, NH and Nelson, VA--had a broadly Democratic voting tendency prior to the 21st century, despite not voting for Dukakis in 1988. Nelson--the only Bush-Kerry-Obama-Obama-Trump county in the South--voted Democratic in every election from 1872 through 1964, for George Wallace in 1968, and then voted for Jimmy Carter in both 1976 and 1980. Coös voted Democratic in every election from 1932 through 1976 save 1952, 1956, and 1972. (In 2020, Biden became the first Democrat ever to carry New Hampshire without carrying Coös County.)

However, the other five--Jefferson, IA, Penobscot, ME, Nicollet, MN, Sullivan, NH, and Stark, OH--had been broadly Republican before their two votes for Bill Clinton. All five voted for Ford in 1976. Penobscot voted for Humphrey in 1968 (an election in which Edmund Muskie appears to have had an unusually strong favourite-son appeal; this was only Penobscot's second ever Democratic vote, after 1964, since 1852), and Nicollet voted for Truman in 1948, but aside from these two instances, these counties all voted for every close-election Republican in the Cold War era: Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1960, Nixon in 1968, and Ford in 1976. 2004 was Stark County's first vote for a losing Democrat since 1888, Jefferson (IA)'s and Sullivan (NH)'s first vote for a losing Democrat since 1848, and Nicollet's first (and, thus far, last) ever vote for a losing Democrat. 

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Like Bush in 2004, Trump also had additional breakthrough counties in his re-election effort, although not as many. These counties last voted Republican no more recently than 1988 before voting for Trump in 2020 (number of votes cast is in 2020):

Scotland, NC (1984) (14,775) (52.6%-44.9%) (50.6%-48.6%)

Lorain, OH (1984) (157,768) (47.6%-47.5%) (50.4%-48.0%)
Mahoning, OH (1972) (119,190) (49.5%-46.2%) (50.3%-48.4%)

Clarendon, SC (1972) (16,733) (50.2%-48.0%) (49.97%-49.3%)
Dillon, SC (1988) (13,101) (49.9%-48.2%) (50.2%-49.1%)

Jim Wells, TX (1972) (13,669) (54.1%-43.8%) (54.5%-44.8%)
La Salle, TX (1972) (2,406) (54.8%-42.4%) (55.5%-43.7%)
Zapata, TX (1920) (3,874) (65.7%-32.8%) (52.5%-47.1%)

Only one of these counties (Dillon, SC) had last voted Republican precisely in 1988. None had last voted Republican in 1992.

In addition, Trump reclaimed two further Bush breakthrough counties that had reverted to the Democracy in the interim:

Frio, TX (2004/2000/1984/1972) (5,279) (55.6%-42.2%) (53.5%-45.9%)
Kleberg, TX (2004/1972) (10,944) (49.2%-45.6%) (50.3%-48.6%)