Presidential popular votes, 1896-2020

I start in 1896 because it was after 1896 that presidential nominees started not regularly setting intra-party popular vote records. Between 1828 and 1896, only Henry Clay in 1832, Lewis Cass in 1848, Stephen Douglas in 1860, George McClellan in 1864, and Benjamin Harrison in 1892 failed to set a record for most popular votes won by a nominee of their party. Of those five nominees, Clay, Cass, Douglas, and Harrison were running in > 2-party contests, and McClellan was running in an election in which a significant portion of the country, most of which had supported Democrats in previous elections, was not participating. Nominees as unlikely as van Buren in 1836, van Buren in 1840, Scott in 1852, and Hayes in 1876 all succeeded at getting the largest number of popular votes for a nominee of their party. (Cleveland also did so in 1888--he and van Buren were, until 2020, the only ones to do so and still lose re-election.)

Intra-party records are bolded. Inter-party records are bolded and underlined. When a party's vote total has declined relative to the previous election, it is italicised.

1896
William McKinley: 7,112,138
William Jennings Bryan: 6,510,807

1900
William McKinley: 7,228,864
William Jennings Bryan: 6,370,932

1904
Theodore Roosevelt: 7,630,457
Alton Parker: 5,083,880

1908
William Howard Taft: 7,678,395
William Jennings Bryan: 6,408,984

1912
Woodrow Wilson: 6,296,284
William Howard Taft: 3,486,242

1916
Woodrow Wilson: 9,126,868
Charles Evans Hughes: 8,548,728

1920
Warren Harding: 16,144,093
James Cox: 9,139,661

1924
Calvin Coolidge: 15,723,789
John Davis: 8,386,242

(Notice this is, like 1912, an election in which both parties saw their raw vote total decline.)

1928
Herbert Hoover: 21,427,123
Al Smith: 15,015,464

1932
Franklin Roosevelt: 22,821,277
Herbert Hoover: 15,761,254

1936
Franklin Roosevelt: 27,747,636
Alf Landon: 16,679,543

1940
Franklin Roosevelt: 27,313,945
Wendell Willkie: 22,347,744

1944
Franklin Roosevelt: 25,612,916
Thomas Dewey: 22,017,929

1948
Harry Truman: 24,179,347
Thomas Dewey: 21,991,292

1952
Dwight Eiesnhower: 34,075,529
Adlai Stevenson: 27,375,090

1956
Dwight Eisenhower: 35,579,180
Adlai Stevenson: 26,028,028

1960
John Kennedy: 34,220,984
Richard Nixon: 34,108,157

1964
Lyndon Johnson: 43,127,041
Barry Goldwater: 27,175,754

1968
Richard Nixon: 31,783,783
Hubert Humphrey: 31,271,839

1972
Richard Nixon: 47,168,710
George McGovern: 29,173,222

1976
Jimmy Carter: 40,831,881
Gerald Ford: 39,148,634

1980
Ronald Reagan: 43,903,230
Jimmy Carter: 35,480,115

1984
Ronald Reagan: 54,455,472
Walter Mondale: 37,577,352

1988
George H. W. Bush: 48,886,597
Michael Dukakis: 41,809,074

1992
Bill Clinton: 44,909,889
George H. W. Bush: 39,104,550

1996
Bill Clinton: 47,401,185
Bob Dole: 39,197,469

2000
George W. Bush: 50,456,002
Al Gore: 50,999,897

2004
George W. Bush: 62,040,610
John Kerry: 59,028,444

2008
Barack Obama: 69,498,516
John McCain: 59,948,323

2012
Barack Obama: 65,915,795
Mitt Romney: 60,933,504

2016
Donald Trump: 62,984,828
Hillary Clinton: 65,853,514

2020
Joe Biden: 81,268,924
Donald Trump: 74,216,154

---

Another way of visualising this is by listing the nominees who have set new records for most popular votes won:

1920: Warren Harding [16,144,093]
1928: Herbert Hoover [21,427,123]
1932: Franklin Roosevelt [22,821,277]
1936: Franklin Roosevelt [27,747,636]
1952: Dwight Eisenhower [34,075,529]
1956: Dwight Eisenhower [35,579,180]
1964: Lyndon Johnson [43,127,041]
1972: Richard Nixon [47,168,710]
1984: Ronald Reagan [54,455,472]
2004: George W. Bush [62,040,610]
2008: Barack Obama [69,498,516]
2020: Joe Biden [81,268,924]

As well as the longest stretches of elections over which parties have failed to set new intra-party records:

1856: James Buchanan [1,836,072]
1860: Stephen Douglas [1,380,202]
1864: George McClellan [1,812,807]
1868: Horatio Seymour [2,706,829]

1896: William Jennings Bryan [6,509,052]
1900: William Jennings Bryan [6,370,932]
1904: Alton Parker [5,083,880]
1908: William Jennings Bryan [6,408,984]
1912: Woodrow Wilson [6,296,284]
1916: Woodrow Wilson [9,126,868]

1928: Herbert Hoover [21,427,123]
1932: Herbert Hoover [15,761,254]
1936: Alf Landon [16,679,543]
1940: Wendell Willkie [22,347,744]

(This was the first time it had taken the Republican Party more than two elections to set a new intra-party vote total record.) 

1936: Franklin Roosevelt [27,747,636]
1940: Franklin Roosevelt [27,313,945]
1944: Franklin Roosevelt [25,612,916]
1948: Harry Truman [24,179,347]
1952: Adlai Stevenson [27,375,090]
1956: Adlai Stevenson [26,028,028]
1960: John Kennedy [34,220,984]

(Of course, within this period, the Democrats held the overall record for most popular votes won until 1952.)

1940: Wendell Willkie [22,347,744]
1944: Thomas Dewey [22,017,929]
1948: Thomas Dewey [21,991,292]
1952: Dwight Eisenhower [34,075,529]

1956: Dwight Eisenhower [35,579,180]
1960: Richard Nixon [34,108,157]
1964: Barry Goldwater [27,175,754]
1968: Richard Nixon [31,783,783]
1972: Richard Nixon [47,168,710]

1964: Lyndon Johnson [43,127,041]
1968: Hubert Humphrey [31,271,839]
1972: George McGovern [29,173,222]
1976: Jimmy Carter [40,831,881]
1980: Jimmy Carter [35,480,115]
1984: Walter Mondale [37,577,352]
1988: Michael Dukakis [41,809,074]
1992: Bill Clinton [44,909,889]

1984: Ronald Reagan [54,455,472]
1988: George H. W. Bush [48,886,597]
1992: George H. W. Bush [39,104,550]
1996: Bob Dole [39,197,469]
2000: George W. Bush [50,456,002]
2004: George W. Bush [62,040,610] 

The longest a party has gone without besting its own intra-party vote total record is 1964-1992, for the Democrats; for the Republicans, the longest was 1984-2004 (but during this entire time, the GOP held the overall vote total record). The longest a party has gone without holding the overall vote total record is 1972-2008 (36 years), for the Democrats, followed by 1896-1916 (20 years), for the Democrats, and 1932-1952 (20 years), for the Republicans. (The Republicans will tie their intra-party record for length of time without holding the overall popular vote record if they do not re-obtain it by 2028, but would have to go until 2044 without re-obtaining it to match the longest the Democrats have gone without holding it.)

The most nominees of a single party who have set the overall vote total record, without any nominees of the other party doing so, is three--Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984, and Bush in 2004.

Now, some of this might be seen as down to the vagaries of population growth. But turnout plays a large role as well. Turnout, and not just indices related to those who did vote, is an important index of party strength, as indicated by the Congressional Quarterly in its article on the '96 election:

[T]empering the results for both parties was the clear display of voter uninterest. Turnout plummeted to below 50 percent of the voting age population for the first time in a presidential election year since women were extended the right to vote in the early 1920s. Altogether, the total of votes cast was 10 million below the total cast four years earlier.

 

If turnout in 1996 had been the same as it was in 2004 (56.7%), but everyone's vote shares remained the same, then Bill Clinton--even with his plurality 49.24% vote share--would have narrowly broken Reagan's popular vote record, with 54,856,720 votes. 

Conversely, even though it had been 20 years since the overall popular vote total record had been set as of 2004 (the longest a popular vote total record has ever stood), there was nothing inevitable about Bush's breaking this record in 2004. If turnout had stayed as it was in 2000, he would have--his 50.7% would have been good for 56,291,429 votes. However, if turnout had dipped back down to 49.0% (the same as in 1996), and Bush had gotten 50.7% of that, he would have received 53,872,567 votes--just below Reagan's '84 number.

Typically, elections in which presidents are successfully re-elected see turnout fall. This was true of the re-elections of Jackson, Lincoln, Grant, McKinley, Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama (and of the elections-to-terms-in-own-right of Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman, and Lyndon Johnson). The only successful re-elections in which turnout has risen have been Wilson's, FDR's (in 1936 and 1940), Reagan's, and Bush's. If turnout had dropped in 2004 from 51.2% to 49.0%, that actually would have been on the low side of turnout drops for successful re-elections (even though it would also have been one of the lowest turnouts ever):

Andrew Jackson, 1832: -2.2%
Abraham Lincoln, 1864: -7.4%
Ulysses Grant, 1872: -6.8%
William McKinley, 1900: -6.1%
Theodore Roosevelt, 1904: -8.0%
Woodrow Wilson, 1916: +2.8%
Calvin Coolidge, 1924: -0.3%
Franklin Roosevelt, 1936: +4.1%
Franklin Roosevelt, 1940: +1.5%
Franklin Roosevelt, 1944: -6.6%
Harry Truman, 1948: -2.9%
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956: -2.7%
Lyndon Johnson, 1964: -0.9%
Richard Nixon, 1972: -5.7%
Ronald Reagan, 1984: +0.7%
Bill Clinton, 1996: -6.2%
George W. Bush, 2004: +5.5%
Barack Obama, 2012: -3.4%

Instead, Bush set a record for the biggest increase in turnout for a successfully re-elected president. 

As for the Democratic inability to set a new intra-party vote total record between 1964 and 1992, Republicans did so twice in the same period (1972 and 1984). In 1988, furthermore, Bush Sr got more votes than Nixon in 1972, even though he got fewer votes than Reagan in 1984. Reagan in 1980 [getting a bare majority of the national popular vote] and Bush Sr in 1988 both managed to get more votes than Lyndon Johnson got in 1964.

There have also been seven cases in which a party's total number of popular votes at the presidential level has fallen two (or more) elections in a row:

1896: William Jennings Bryan [6,509,052]
1900: William Jennings Bryan [6,370,932]
1904: Alton Parker [5,083,880]

1936: Franklin Roosevelt [27,747,636]
1940: Franklin Roosevelt [27,313,945]
1944: Franklin Roosevelt [25,612,916]
1948: Harry Truman [24,179,347]

1940: Wendell Willkie [22,347,744]
1944: Thomas Dewey [22,017,929]
1948: Thomas Dewey [21,991,292]

1956: Dwight Eisenhower [35,579,180]
1960: Richard Nixon [34,108,157]
1964: Barry Goldwater [27,175,754]

1964: Lyndon Johnson [43,127,041]
1968: Hubert Humphrey [31,271,839]
1972: George McGovern [29,173,222]

1984: Ronald Reagan [54,455,472]
1988: George H. W. Bush [48,886,597]
1992: George H. W. Bush [39,104,550]

2008: Barack Obama [69,498,516]
2012: Barack Obama [65,915,795]
2016: Hillary Clinton [65,853,514] 

In none of these cases (but one) has the third nominee--the second in a row to get a lower absolute number of votes for his or her party--won the general election. The exception is FDR in 1944 and Truman in 1948, who were both running against nominees who themselves were also getting a smaller number of absolute raw votes than the prior nominee of their party. 

Since the 19th Amendment, most nominees setting overall vote total records have been landslide winners. (In fact, if one uses the 55% criterion, every landslide winner since the 19th Amendment has also set an overall vote total record--but not if one counts any of 1924, 1980, or 1988 as a 'landslide'.) The exceptions are Bush in 2004, Obama in 2008, and Biden in 2020. In two of these cases--2004 and 2020--both nominees got more votes than any previous presidential nominee of either party. This wasn't the case in any of 1928, 1932, 1936, 1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, or 1984. (It was, barely, true in 1920, the first election after the 19th Amendment.) In 2008, John McCain got the most votes of any presidential nominee of any party save two: Obama in 2008, and Bush in 2004. He managed to get more votes than Kerry in 2004 (and easily got more than Gore in 2000). In contrast, on the all-time list, after the 1928 election, Al Smith was at #4 (behind Hoover '28, Harding, and Coolidge); Hoover after the 1932 election, at #4 (behind FDR '32, Hoover '28, and Harding); Landon after the 1936 election, at #4 (behind FDR '36, FDR '32, and Hoover '28); Goldwater in 1964, at #8 (behind LBJ '64, Eisenhower '56, Kennedy '60, Nixon '60, Eisenhower '52, FDR '36, Stevenson '52, and FDR '40); McGovern in 1972, at #9 (behind Nixon '72, LBJ '64, Eisenhower '56, Kennedy '60, Nixon '60, Eisenhower '52, Nixon '68, and Humphrey '68); and Mondale in 1984, at #7 (behind Reagan '84, Nixon '72, Reagan '80, Johnson '64, Carter '76, and Ford '76). The only comparable case was 1952, when Stevenson got more votes than any previous nominee of either party save FDR in 1936. However, that was following three elections of the Democratic vote total sliding, whereas 2008 followed a Republican setting the overall vote total record. 

Another curiosity about 2008 is that Obama became the first president to set an all-time vote total record in his initial election, to get successfully re-elected but fail to break his own record whilst doing so. Back in 1996, Democrats such as Henry Cisneros were pointing up the significance of re-election as opposed to election:

To be elected president is a tremendous thing, it's a great honour. To be re-elected is an affirmation of a vision. It's not on the basis of promises or predictions or faith or hope, but on the basis of achievements and a record. 

Not only that, but Obama became the first president re-elected, or elected to a term in his own right, to fail to set at least an intra-party vote total record (whether he had done so in his initial election or not), since FDR and Truman in the 1940s. (All but Clinton had set an all-time vote total record in their re-elections: Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, and George W. Bush.) 

Right now, the top ten popular votes of all time are:

1. Joe Biden, 2020 [81,268,924]
2. Donald Trump, 2020 [74,216,154]
3. Barack Obama, 2008 [69,498,516]
4. Barack Obama, 2012 [65,915,795]
5. Hillary Clinton, 2016 [65,853,514]
6. Donald Trump, 2016 [62,984,828]
7. George W. Bush, 2004 [62,040,610]
8. Mitt Romney, 2012 [60,933,504]
9. John McCain, 2008 [59,948,323]
10. John Kerry, 2004 [59,028,444]

As of 2013 (when Rhodes Cook wrote 'Democrats and the White House: From Losing to Winning'), the top ten would have been:

1. Barack Obama, 2008 [69,498,516]
2. Barack Obama, 2012 [65,915,795]
3. George W. Bush, 2004 [62,040,610]
4. Mitt Romney, 2012 [60,933,504]
5. John McCain, 2008 [59,948,323]
6. John Kerry, 2004 [59,028,444]
7. Ronald Reagan, 1984 [54,455,472]
8. Al Gore, 2000 [50,999,897]
9. George W. Bush, 2000 [50,456,002]
10. George H. W. Bush, 1988 [48,886,597]

As of October 1988 (when Theo Lippman, Jr. wrote 'When Democrats Lost America'), these were the top ten:

1. Ronald Reagan, 1984 [54,455,472]
2. Richard Nixon, 1972 [47,168,710]
3. Ronald Reagan, 1980 [43,903,230]
4. Lyndon Johnson, 1964 [43,127,041]
5. Jimmy Carter, 1976 [40,831,881]
6. Gerald Ford, 1976 [39,148,634]
7. Walter Mondale, 1984 [37,577,352]
8. Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 [35,579,180]
9. Jimmy Carter, 1980 [35,480,115]
10. John Kennedy, 1960 [34,220,984]

After the 2004 election, in the wake of which Jeff Greenfield observed that 'the nature of the Republican Party as the plausible permanent governing majority of the United States has been reaffirmed tonight in a very dramatic way', these were the top ten:

1. George W. Bush, 2004 [62,040,610]
2. John Kerry, 2004 [59,028,444]
3. Ronald Reagan, 1984 [54,455,472]
4. Al Gore, 2000 [50,999,897]
5. George W. Bush, 2000 [50,456,002]
6. George H. W. Bush, 1988 [48,886,597]
7. Bill Clinton, 1996 [47,401,185]
8. Richard Nixon, 1972 [47,168,710]
9. Bill Clinton, 1992 [44,909,889]
10. Ronald Reagan, 1980 [43,903,230]

One striking feature about the top ten right now is that they are all from the last five elections. (And every nominee from the last five elections is represented in the top ten.) As of 2013, missing from the previous five elections were both Bill Clinton and Bob Dole in 1996 (supplanted by two Republicans: Bush Sr in 1988, and Reagan in 1984). As of October 1988, missing from the previous five elections were Nixon in 1968, Humphrey in 1968, and McGovern in 1972--both nominees from the three-way 1968 election, and one additional lone Democrat. They were supplanted by two Democrats (Johnson in '64 and Kennedy in '60) and one Republican (Eisenhower in '56). After the '04 election, the losers of the 1988, 1992 and 1996 elections (two Republicans, one Democrat) were all missing from the previous ten elections, and were supplanted by three Republicans (Reagan in 1984, Reagan in 1980, and Nixon in 1972).

---

These are the turnout levels in elections from 1972 (the first election after the 26th Amendment) on:

1972: 55.2%
1976: 53.5%
1980: 52.6%
1984: 53.3%
1988: 50.2%
1992: 55.2%
1996: 49.0%
2000: 51.2%
2004: 56.7%
2008: 58.2%
2012: 54.9%
2016: 55.7%
2020: 66.2% (?)

If ordered by size, they are:

2020: 66.2% (?)
2008: 58.2%
2004: 56.7%
2016: 55.7%
1972 (tie): 55.2%
1992 (tie): 55.2%
2012: 54.9%
1976: 53.5%
1984: 53.3%
1980: 52.6%
2000: 51.2%
1988: 50.2%
1996: 49.0%

(As of Nov. 7, 2021, Wikipedia marks the turnout for 2020 as 'estimated', and the source it uses [which is non-official and was last updated in December 2020] actually lists the turnout as 66.8%. At this point, I'm not sure when, if ever, an official turnout figure for 2020 will be available.)

The turnouts in the five consecutive elections prior to the 26th Amendment were all above 60%.

Proportionally relative to the prior election, the turnout rise in 2004 was 10.74%. (That is, the actual rise between 2000 and 2004--5.5%--was itself 10.74% of the 2000 turnout of 51.2%.) By the same token, the proportional rise in turnout in 1992 was 9.96%, and in 2020 (using the 66.2% figure), was 18.85%. These were, by far, the three biggest rises in turnout since the 26th Amendment. Until 2020, 2004 had seen the sharpest rise in turnout since 1952. It is still the sharpest rise in turnout for a successfully re-elected president (the proportional rise in turnout in 1936 having been 8.17%). 

If the 66.2% figure for 2020 is correct, the proportional rise in turnout in 2020 was slightly less than that in 1952 (19.43%). If it was, instead, 66.8%, however, then the proportional rise in turnout in 2020 would, at 19.93%, edge the rise in 1952 (just barely) as the largest proportional rise in turnout ever, leaving aside the very early elections of 1828 and 1840.

The 2000 election is a noteworthy outlier amongst the elections of the 21st century, in that its turnout was quite low. The four top spots in the list of elections from 1972 on, ordered by turnout percentage, are occupied by four of the last five elections, and the other missing election (2012) is not far behind. But 2000 is the third-lowest. That said, there was some thought ahead of the 2000 election that the turnout could even decline relative to 1996. In May 2000, newswise wrote:

In the 1996 presidential election, voter turnout plummeted to its lowest point since 1924. Now, a University of Arkansas researcher predicts that the year 2000 election may drop even lower.

The researcher (Todd Shields) identified several elements driving turnout lower over the previous several decades, including, perhaps most importantly for explaining the subsequent apparent permanent rise in turnout, 'blandness':

Following a trend of moderation, platforms have begun to blend, personalities have begun to blur, and recent elections have presented voters with a very bland choice, Shields said. Simply, candidates rarely stand out or speak up in a manner that motivates people to vote.

"There appears to be less and less difference between Republican and Democratic candidates. Many groups in the electorate feel like they don't have a choice, so they don't make a choice," Shields added. "It takes a controversial or charismatic candidate to drive people to the polls. If people feel a strong opinion about a candidate, they'll also feel compelled to express that opinion by voting."

Other factors included confidence in the economy, lack of outreach to non-voters, and the 'nearly continuous controversy' that had afflicted most presidents from Nixon on. (In light of the last five elections, the last factor seems least likely to be explanatory.)

Interestingly, though, although 2016's turnout was high within the context of elections since the 26th Amendment, it saw only a small rise in turnout relative to the previous election, 2012 (proportionally, a rise of 1.46%). In this, it was similar to 2000 (although the proportional rise in turnout in 2000 was bigger, at 4.49%--in fact, it remains the fourth-biggest since the 26th Amendment, ahead of the 2.65% proportional rise in 2008). 

Similar to Todd Shields, Mary H. Cooper also wrote in October 2000 that 'fewer than half of all eligible Americans are expected to vote on Nov. 7.'