States' Republican and Democratic Voting Streaks

In 2012, Eric Ostermeier compiled a list of the longest Republican Party winning streaks by state. Vermont's streak of voting Republican for 27 elections in a row from 1856 through 1960 was the longest by far; tied for second at the time were seven states that voted Republican 14 times in a row from 1856 through 1908 before voting for Wilson (or Theodore Roosevelt) in the three-way election of 1912. Of those seven, only Maine would have matched Vermont's record if it had somehow managed to squeeze out a plurality for Taft in 1912 (which it didn't come particularly close to doing; it was the only New England state where Taft came in third). New Hampshire would have lasted the second-longest, at 20 elections in a row from 1856 through 1932.

Ostermeier didn't touch on the longest Democratic Party winning streaks by state, except to mention that Vermont's 104-year run was the longest for either party, beating out Georgia and Arkansas for the Democrats. As best I can tell, these are the longest streaks of the Democratic Party carrying states at the presidential level (counting the Democratic Party as beginning in 1828, counting Douglas and not Breckinridge as the regular Democratic nominee in 1860, and counting Greeley as the Democratic nominee in 1872) (bolded states' runs are still active):

1. Georgia: 1868-1960 (24 cycles)

2. Arkansas: 1876-1964 (23 cycles)

3. Alabama: 1876-1944 (18 cycles)
3. Mississippi: 1876-1944 (18 cycles)

5. Louisiana: 1880-1944 (17 cycles)
5. South Carolina: 1880-1944 (17 cycles)

7. Texas: 1872-1924 (14 cycles)

8. North Carolina: 1876-1924 (13 cycles)
8. Virginia: 1876-1924 (13 cycles)

10. Tennessee: 1872-1916 (12 cycles)
10. Florida: 1880-1924 (12 cycles)
10. Minnesota: 1976-2020 (12 cycles)

13. Missouri: 1828-1860 (9 cycles)
13. North Carolina: 1932-1964 (9 cycles)
13. Hawaii: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)
13. Massachusetts: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)
13. New York: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)
13. Oregon: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)
13. Rhode Island: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)
13. Washington: 1988-2020 (9 cycles)

21. Alabama: 1828-1856 (8 cycles)
21. Illinois: 1828-1856 (8 cycles)
21. Virginia: 1828-1856 (8 cycles)
21. Kentucky: 1864-1892 (8 cycles)
21. Missouri: 1872-1900 (8 cycles)
21. California: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Connecticut: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Delaware: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Illinois: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Maine: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Maryland: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. New Jersey: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)
21. Vermont: 1992-2020 (8 cycles)

34. Maryland: 1868-1892 (7 cycles)
34. Wisconsin: 1988-2012 (7 cycles)

36. New Hampshire: 1832-1852 (6 cycles)
36. Arkansas: 1836-1856 (6 cycles)
36. Kentucky: 1900-1920 (6 cycles)
36. Massachusetts: 1928-1948 (6 cycles)
36. Rhode Island: 1928-1948 (6 cycles)
36. Kentucky: 1932-1952 (6 cycles)
36. West Virginia: 1932-1952 (6 cycles)
36. Michigan: 1992-2012 (6 cycles)
36. Pennsylvania: 1992-2012 (6 cycles)

New Hampshire has now voted Democratic five elections straight, and, if it votes Democratic again in 2024, will join a tie with the other states that have voted Democratic six times in a row at some point or another in their histories. For New Mexico, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado, it will take two more Democratic votes (which seems a reasonably safe call in all those cases except Nevada). 

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The longest currently-active partisan state voting streaks are by far the now-14-cycle streaks of voting Republican in every election from 1968 on by nine states in the Plains and Mountain West (which have now matched the 1856-1908 states). 

With the possible exception of Alaska, none of those states seems in any danger of breaking its run in the next several elections. While they are all still far short of Vermont's 27-cycle run, what is perhaps more interesting is that--apart from, for now, the 1856-1908 states--there has never been a group of states that has been so loyally Republican over the same run of that many elections. In fact, outside the solid Democratic South, there has never been a group of states that has been so loyal to either party over the same run of that many elections. (Six states voted Democratic together over the 17 cycles from 1880 through 1944; seven states voted Democratic together over the 13 cycles from 1876 through 1924.) The longest non-Southern Democratic voting streak is Minnesota's 12-cycle streak from 1976 through 2020 (in which it is not joined by any other states). The longest Republican runs, after Vermont, the 1856-1908 states, and the 1968-2020 states, are two states that voted Republican in the 13 consecutive cycles from 1860 through 1908. (One of these two, Minnesota, wasn't a state in 1856.) This means, of course, that nine states voted Republican together over the 13 consecutive cycles from 1860 through 1908. After the 1860-1908 states, however, is Arizona, with its lonely 11-election run of voting Republican from 1952 through 1992--and, now, the states that voted for Carter in 1976 and haven't voted Democratic since.

Together, there are 13 states that have voted Republican together in the 11 straight elections from 1980 through 2020. This kind of partisan loyalty on the part of a group of states over the same run of that many elections has occurred only with the nine 1860-1908 states, seven 1856-1908 states, nine 1968-2020 states (all in favour of the GOP), and various configurations of Southern states (in favour of the Democracy) between 1876 and 1960 (inclusive). (Ten states voted Democratic together in all 12 elections from 1880 through 1924; four of them voted for Hoover in 1928. Just before Tennessee became the first former Confederate state to vote Republican in 1920, these eight states had voted Democratic together over the eleven consecutive cycles from 1876 through 1916.)

What makes this even more striking is that the Republican Party has undergone some fairly bad defeats in the 1980-2020 period (1992, 1996, 2008). In the 1860-1908 period, the Republican Party won most elections, and those it lost, it generally lost narrowly. (Even in 1856, Frémont won where he was on the ballot, in the North.) Of course, the loyally Democratic states in the 1870s-1920s/40s/60s period stuck with that party through a large number of very bad defeats. But they were also all in one region, whereas the current region of Republican loyalty spans a few regions: the South, the Plains West (sometimes considered an extension of the Midwest), and the Mountain West. (It also, for now at least, includes the second-largest state in the country.) Even leaving out Texas, the other 1980-2020 states between them have a total of 40 Congressional districts, which means if they were a single state, it would have 42 electoral votes, give or take.

Of course, it's likely that a group of states loyally Democratic over the same 11 elections will emerge by 2028 (and augment considerably in 2032). It will likely include the fourth-largest and, after 2032, the largest state in the country. But by then, the land of loyal Republicanism will have been loyally Republican for 13 (after 2028)/14 (after 2032) elections in a row. (And the especially loyal core of that group of states will have been loyally Republican for 16/17 elections in a row, approaching or matching the 17 straight cycles through which six Southern states voted Democratic together from 1880 through 1944. Unless the 1968-2020 states undergo a dramatic reduction in number, they should become unprecedented in terms of the number of distinct states voting for a particular party for that many elections in a row together. Four Southern states voted Democratic together over the 18 cycles from 1876 through 1944; and two states--Georgia and Arkansas--voted Democratic together over the 22 cycles from 1876 through 1960, which, I believe, is the longest run of consecutive cycles in which multiple states of any number voted together for a particular party.)