County sweeps

Sometimes, a presidential nominee sweeps all of a state's counties. This generally means that the nominee is winning the state very strongly. In theory, a nominee could be winning all of a state's counties narrowly, but that is unlikely if the state has more than a certain number of counties. (Some examples of states with very few counties being close despite one nominee carrying every county are Hawaii in 1976 and Delaware in 1980.) The authors of 'The Butterfly Did It' analysed Connecticut, Hawaii, Delaware, and Rhode Island separately from other states because 'they have too few counties to analyze separately' (p. 797). For convenience, even though this project is different, we'll treat sweeping the counties of Connecticut, Hawaii, Delaware, or Rhode Island (which have eight, four, three, and five counties, respectively) as irrelevant. 

In addition to strong support, a county sweep of a state also implies breadth of support for the party across a state.

As recently as the 1920s, there were some counties that made no returns in some Western states, and as recently as 1916 there were some idiosyncratic results in the South (such as Bolivar County, MS returning no votes in 1916, after having returned 356 votes in 1912).

1932
Franklin Roosevelt swept the counties of most of the original states of the Confederacy (plus Oklahoma and Arkansas, and minus Georgia), as well as of some Western states.

1936.
This was the last time a Democrat swept the counties of any state outside the South or Northeast aside from Arizona.

1940.

1944.

1948
In 1948, Truman carried every county in Arizona. Thurmond carried every county in Mississippi. This was the fifth time in a row that every county in Arizona had voted Democratic, and the last time the Democratic nominee swept the counties of any state outside the South or Northeast (aside from Hawaii). (For want of a better alternative, I'm using 'tilt blue' as the colour for the few-counties states if a third party swept a state's counties.)

The Republicans swept no state's counties in any of the five elections from 1932-1948. After 1948, neither party has gone more than three elections in a row without sweeping at least one state's counties.

1952
Eisenhower swept the counties of Maine, Vermont, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa; the last time a nominee of either party swept the counties of either of the Dakotas or of Iowa.

1956
Eisenhower swept the counties of Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire (and carried every county in New England save Suffolk, MA), as well as of New Jersey, Maryland, and, somewhat idiosyncratically, Utah.

1960
1960 remains the only election in which neither nominee swept any state's counties (even including the few-counties states).

1964
Lyndon Johnson carried every county in Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey; Barry Goldwater carried every county in Mississippi. This was the first time that the loser of a presidential election had swept the counties of a state since 1928, when Al Smith carried every county in Louisiana and South Carolina. Johnson swept all of New England's counties save Carroll, NH. Apart from Delaware, with its three counties, there was no overlap between the states whose counties LBJ swept in 1964, and those whose counties FDR had swept in 1936.

1968
Discounting the few-counties states, neither Humphrey nor Nixon swept any state's counties. (Nor did George Wallace.) In Kansas and Nebraska, Nixon came close, with Humphrey carrying only one county in each. (The county he carried in Nebraska, Saline County, has since gone on to become a Republican county.)

1972
Nixon swept fifteen states' counties, mostly in the South and Mountain and Plains West.

1976
Carter and Ford each swept the counties of one many-countied state: Carter, those of his home state of Georgia, and Ford, those of Vermont. Even though Vermont was still a traditionally Republican state, this was unusual for a non-landslide-winning Republican; neither Nixon in 1968 or 1960, Dewey in 1948, or even Hughes in 1916 had swept Vermont's counties. Ford did well in Vermont (winning it 54.3%-43.1%), but it was certainly not his best state; this was the first time since 1948 that a nominee had swept a state's counties, but not his best state's counties.

1980
Reagan swept six states' counties, all save New Hampshire in the Mountain or Plains West. Chittenden County, Vermont flipped from Ford to Carter in 1980, as Vermont voted more Democratic than the country (by margin) for the first time since 1964.

1984
Reagan swept eight states' counties in 1984, adding Vermont and Maine to the states in which he did so in 1980.

1988
George H. W. Bush swept four states' counties in 1988: Maine, New Hampshire, Wyoming, and Nevada. Maine was the only one of these in which Reagan had not carried every county in 1980. In Florida, Dukakis carried only one county, Gadsden, in the Panhandle, although he came very close to flipping Broward County. This was the third time in a row that Republicans had swept the counties of Nevada, Wyoming, and New Hampshire. Since Bush did not sweep Utah's counties, it was also (like 1948 and 1976) another instance of a nominee sweeping some state's (or states') counties but not his best state's counties.

1992
Bill Clinton carried every county in Massachusetts and Vermont. Democrats have gone on to win every county in Massachusetts in every subsequent election. This was the first election since 1968 in which the Republican nominee did not sweep all of a state's counties (the first time since 1960 if counting states with few counties).

1996
Bill Clinton carried every county in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine (and indeed every county in New England except Belknap and Carroll, NH).

2000
In the first election since 1976 in which each nominee swept at least one state's counties, George W. Bush carried every county in Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah, and Gore, every county in Massachusetts.

2004
This time, Bush swept the counties of Utah and Oklahoma, as Bush captured the Gore counties in Oklahoma whilst Kerry captured Thurston County, Nebraska and Teton County, Wyoming.

2008
Obama carried every county in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Massachusetts (and indeed every county in New England save Piscataquis, Maine). McCain carried every county in Oklahoma (which also happened to be the Most Republican State this year, for the first time). No-one losing the national popular vote by more than 5% had swept all of a state's counties since 1964, and nominees had lost the national popular vote by margins comparable to the 2008 margin in 1988, 1992, and 1996.

Despite carrying all of New Hampshire's counties, Obama didn't quite carry the state by double digits (he carried it 54.1%-44.5%); New Hampshire's ten counties are the fewest of any state aside from Connecticut, Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Delaware.

2012
Romney swept the counties of Utah, Oklahoma, and West Virginia; Obama swept the counties of Vermont and Massachusetts. The one county Romney lost in Nebraska, Thurston County, went on to vote Republican in 2016 and 2020, albeit narrowly.

2016
Trump swept the counties of Oklahoma and West Virginia; Hillary Clinton swept the counties of Massachusetts. 

2020
Trump swept the counties of Oklahoma and West Virginia; Biden swept the counties of Massachusetts. Biden became the first Democrat since 1976 to win despite not winning every county in Vermont. This was the fifth time in a row that every county in Oklahoma voted Republican. It was also, of course, the eighth time in a row that every county in Massachusetts voted Democratic. Between 1952 and 1988 (inclusive), neither party had swept any state's counties more than thrice in a row.

This time, both nominees swept the counties of at least one state without sweeping the counties of his best state, as Trump's best state was Wyoming, and Biden's, Vermont.

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We can see some interesting things here. For example, in their best elections, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama each swept the counties of one state in New England other than Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island; for Clinton, it was Maine; for Obama, it was New Hampshire. In 2016, Maine, which had not generally been reckoned a swing state, trended hard towards Trump; New Hampshire was also close (indeed closer) but didn't trend nearly as hard towards Trump. In 2020, Biden won both states safely and won Maine more safely, but the fact that Obama swept all of New Hampshire's counties but not all of Maine's could be a sign that in the long term, New Hampshire might be trending towards being more safely Democratic whereas Maine might not.

There was also a subtle rupture in 2004. In 2000, George W. Bush swept the counties of Utah, Nebraska, and Wyoming; while impressive for a close election, these were all states whose counties Reagan had swept in 1980 and 1984 (Bush Sr had additionally swept Wyoming's counties a third time in 1988). In 2004, Bush swept the counties of Utah and Oklahoma. This was the first time a Republican had swept Oklahoma's counties since 1972; this was not a state that it was terribly typical for a Republican to sweep the counties of. In 2008, McCain swept all of Oklahoma's counties for the second time since 1972 for the GOP, even though it was the only state in which he did so. In 2012, Mitt Romney was able to return to a somewhat more normal Republican pattern by sweeping Utah's counties (and nearly swept Nebraska's), but he also not only swept Oklahoma's once again, but also swept West Virginia's, which even Nixon had not swept the counties of. In fact, before 2012, no nominee of either party had ever swept West Virginia's counties. In 2016, Trump held onto every county in West Virginia and Oklahoma but lost two counties in Utah, thereby sweeping the counties only of states where it had been atypical for Republicans to sweep the counties in the past. Both of these states are in 'Greater Appalachia', whereas none of the states whose counties Bush had swept in 2000 (Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah) is. 

And although it had been typical for the Republican Party to sweep the counties of Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah, it appears this will not happen again for the foreseeable future, as Biden carried Douglas County, Nebraska by over 11% (and for the third time in four elections for the Democrats), Summit County, Utah by nearly 20% (and for the third time in four elections for the Democrats), and Teton County, Wyoming with over 2/3 of the vote (and for the fifth straight election for the Democrats). In each state, Biden carried multiple counties. 

In Oklahoma and West Virginia, the counties Gore and Kerry had hung onto were not the counties in the states that have been trending Democratic more recently. These were states where, as of when Republicans began sweeping their counties, Democrats' appeal (such as it was) was almost entirely rural. This was especially so in Oklahoma; in 2020, Biden came within less than 1.2% of taking Oklahoma County, and broke 40% in two other counties, Tulsa and Cleveland (which happen to be the state's three largest counties); in 2000, Gore, the last Democrat to date to carry any counties in Oklahoma, carried nine counties in the state, but none of Oklahoma, Tulsa, or Cleveland Counties. Likewise, Biden came within less than 1.3% of flipping Monongalia County, West Virginia in 2020; both Gore and Kerry carried counties in West Virginia in 2000 and 2004, but neither carried Monongalia County. Nor did either of them carry Biden's second-best county in the state, Jefferson County (next-door to Loudoun County, Virginia). 

(That said, the very last Democrat, to date, to carry any counties in West Virginia was Obama in 2008, and not only did he carry Monongalia, but it was, for the first time ever, the Democrats' biggest vote trove in the state. Unlike Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties, both of which last voted Democratic in or before 1964, Monongalia County was also traditionally Democratic, counting as a 'Bush breakthrough county' in 2000.)

In Wyoming, conversely, the last Democrat to carry any counties (as of 2000) had been Bill Clinton in 1996, who carried, along with the more traditionally Democratic Sweetwater County, the hitherto typically Republican ski resort county of Teton County (home to Jackson Hole). In 2000, Bush's 52.3% majority in the county was the weakest of any Republican's (apart from Bush Sr in 1992 and Dole in 1996, who had lost it) since 1940 (which was, at the time, the third-to-last time it had voted Democratic). It took more time for Utah to become a state where Democrats had a firm hold on at least one county, but when they did, again, one of them was a county Bill Clinton had carried in 1996: the ski resort county of Summit (which was one of three counties in the state he carried that year, the other two being the more traditionally Democratic counties of Tooele and Carbon). So in both Utah and Wyoming, there was a 'new coalition' base of support that had been prepared by Bill Clinton, whereas there wasn't in Oklahoma (nor in West Virginia, to the degree that, despite being a traditionally Democratic county at the time, Monongalia was far from Clinton's best county in the state in 1996; indeed, he got a lower vote share in the county than he did statewide [and did even worse in Jefferson County, a swing county at the time]). 

The same wasn't quite true in Nebraska (where Clinton never carried either Douglas or Lancaster County--in 1996, he carried Thurston, Dakota, and Saline, the last of which was traditionally the most Democratic-leaning county in the state); and, indeed, the only thing stopping Nebraska being a Republican county sweep in 2004 and 2012 was not a 'new coalition' county, but the somewhat erratic Thurston County. But, for whatever reason, Democrats captured the 'new coalition' areas of Nebraska more quickly than they did in West Virginia and Oklahoma.

In another 'Greater Appalachia' state, Kentucky, Bill Clinton carried two counties that before 1992/96 had been traditionally Republican: Fayette and Jefferson. Clearly, in order to carry the state, he had relied on combining this with strength in rural areas of Kentucky, but these two counties went on to be the only counties Democrats carried in the state in 2016 and 2020. 

That said, how close Biden came to flipping Oklahoma County and Monongalia County indicates that the days of Republicans' sweeping the counties of any state might soon be over. We are finding out that every state has pockets of 'Blue America' in them. Even if they were to come to an end in 2024, however, the five-election run of Republicans' sweeping Oklahoma's counties, in particular, has already been impressive.

Democrats' run of taking every county in Massachusetts doesn't seem likely to come to an end anytime soon. The closest a Republican has come to taking any of Massachusetts' counties since 1988 is Romney in 2012, who lost Plymouth County by 4.2%. In 2020, Trump lost every county in the state by double digits. In 2016, Trump got the highest vote share this century in a number of mid-size or large Northeastern counties, and this was true even in Massachusetts, where he got the highest vote share this century of any Republican in Hampden and Bristol Counties. He even improved on his 2016 vote shares in both of these counties in 2020. Even so, his vote shares in them in 2020 stood at just 40.0% and 42.9%, respectively--nowhere near carrying them. Massachusetts has relatively few counties--14--but this is as many as Vermont, where Republicans have managed to establish an enclave of Republicanism in what is now the bluest state in the country, in Essex County. And Massachusetts is both geographically small and largely consumed by a large metro area, but the same is true of Connecticut (where Trump carried two counties in defeat in 2020).

Prior to 1992, the last time anyone had swept Massachusetts' counties was 1964, and before that, 1924 and 1920 (both Coolidge and Harding managed to win Suffolk County). So it had not been particularly typical for all of Massachusetts' counties to vote together. (In the more distant past, it had been, inasmuch as Republicans had many near-sweeps of the state's counties prior to 1920 that were thwarted only by Democrats' carriage of Suffolk County, and did succeed in sweeping the state's counties a few times.) In 1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, and 1988, both parties carried multiple counties in the state (even with favourite sons heading the Democratic ticket in 1960 and 1988).