All the Romney Must-Win Counties

As discussed here, in 2012, Mitt Romney was expected to win back a series of counties that had a number of features in common. Amongst other things, they had in common that they had cast over 100,000 votes in 2008, and had voted for George W. Bush twice and against Bill Clinton at least once. They were also all in swing states, but there were a number of other 'beachhead' counties that had a similar electoral history, but were not paid as much attention because they were in solid red or solid blue states. These are all the counties across the nation that cast at least 100,000 votes in 2008 and voted for Bush twice and against Bill Clinton at least once before flipping to Obama in 2008, along with the number of votes they cast in 2012, their 2004 and 2008 margins, and how they went on to vote in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Counties that were frequently mentioned as 'Romney must-win counties' during the 2012 campaign are italicised.

San Diego, CA (1,193,949) (52.45%-46.33%) (53.95%-43.79%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Harris, TX (1,188,585) (54.75%-44.56%) (50.45%-48.82%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Dallas, TX (711,612) (50.35%-48.95%) (57.15%-41.89%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Riverside, CA (663,116) (57.83%-41.04%) (50.21%-47.90%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Hillsborough, FL (543,429) (53.01%-46.23%) (53.05%-45.94%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Wake, NC (486,427) (50.83%-48.71%) (56.73%-42.28%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Hamilton, OH (418,894) (52.50%-47.09%) (52.98%-46.00%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
DuPage, IL (401,081) (54.39%-44.75%) (54.72%-43.93%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Salt Lake, UT (384,174) (59.57%-37.54%) (48.17%-48.09%) (Romney-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Jefferson, CO (311,052) (51.8%-46.6%) (53.6%-44.6%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Jefferson, AL (304,523) (54.2%-45.2%) (52.2%-47.1%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Kent, MI (294,206) (58.9%-40.2%) (49.3%-48.8%) (Romney-Trump-Biden)
Lake, IL (287,493) (50.5%-48.8%) (59.1%-39.5%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Arapahoe, CO (285,516) (51.4%-47.5%) (55.7%-42.8%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Fresno, CA (259,697) (57.38%-41.68%) (49.99%-47.91%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Chester, PA (252,576) (52.0%-47.5%) (54.0%-44.8%) (Romney-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Douglas, NE (223,927) (58.3%-40.2%) (51.5%-46.9%) (Romney-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Hillsborough, NH (205,667) (51.0%-48.2%) (51.2%-47.5%) (Obama-Trump-Biden)
East Baton Rouge, LA (198,171) (54.4%-44.8%) (50.5%-48.3%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Washoe, NV (187,855) (51.3%-47.1%) (55.3%-42.6%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Kane, IL (181,725) (55.0%-44.1%) (55.2%-43.4%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Prince William, VA (180,195) (52.8%-46.4%) (57.5%-41.6%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Larimer, CO (180,180) (51.8%-46.6%) (54.0%-44.3%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Forsyth, NC (174,469) (54.1%-45.5%) (54.8%-44.4%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Berks, PA (170,676) (53.0%-46.4%) (53.8%-44.6%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)
Rockingham, NH (170,423) (51.7%-47.5%) (49.9%-48.8%) (Romney-Trump-Biden)
Henrico, VA (162,241) (53.8%-45.6%) (55.7%-43.5%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Charleston, SC (161,707) (51.6%-46.8%) (53.6%-45.2%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Loudoun, VA (160,060) (55.7%-43.6%) (53.7%-45.4%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Somerset, NJ (143,180) (51.7%-47.4%) (52.4%-46.3%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Orange, NY (140,628) (54.7%-43.8%) (51.5%-47.4%) (Obama-Trump-Trump)
McHenry, IL (134,237) (59.7%-39.3%) (51.8%-46.4%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)
Brown, WI (128,928) (54.5%-44.6%) (53.9%-44.8%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)
Lancaster, NE (127,355) (56.0%-42.4%) (51.6%-46.6%) (Romney-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
San Luis Obispo, CA (125,966) (52.7%-45.5%) (51.2%-45.9%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Fayette, KY (125,866) (52.9%-46.2%) (51.7%-46.9%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Dauphin, PA (124,301) (53.9%-45.6%) (53.9%-44.9%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Dutchess, NY (123,705) (51.2%-47.0%) (53.7%-45.1%) (Obama-Hillary Clinton-Biden)
Marion, OR (120,376) (53.9%-44.5%) (49.6%-47.4%) (Romney-Trump-Biden)
Lake, OH (118,665) (51.05%-48.47%) (49.45%-48.62%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)
Chesapeake City, VA (110,425) (57.1%-42.3%) (50.2%-48.9%) (Obama-Trump-Biden)
Saratoga, NY (105,510) (52.6%-45.6%) (50.9%-47.5%) (Obama-Trump-Biden)
Jackson, OR (96,972) (55.3%-43.4%) (48.6%-48.5%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)
Sangamon, IL (94,297) (58.6%-40.5%) (51.3%-46.9%) (Romney-Trump-Trump)

In all, there were 44 counties that fit the electoral profile of a 'Romney must-win county'. 

The ones that were commonly referenced as 'Romney must-win counties' during the 2012 campaign had some other features in common. Leaving aside Hillsborough, NH, which cast over a quarter of New Hampshire's total vote in 2008, they voted for Obama in 2008 by at least 6.98%. (After his 3.7% margin in Hillsborough, NH, Obama's second-smallest margin in any of the commonly referenced 'Romney must-win counties' was 6.983%, in Hamilton, OH.) In states where there was only one 'Romney must-win county', it was the largest county in the state to flip to Obama in 2008, and in states where there were multiple 'Romney must-win counties', one of them was the largest county in the state to flip to Obama in 2008.

Furthermore, although I have been using a cutoff of 100,000 votes cast in 2008, the smallest county actually commonly referenced as a 'Romney must-win county' was Loudoun, VA, which cast 139,459 votes in 2008 (followed by Henrico, VA at 154,966 votes cast).

(That said, in a post-election article, Nate Cohn mentioned how Obama had held a number of counties that had been described as 'Romney must-win counties'--Jefferson, CO, Chester, PA, Loudoun, VA, and Wake, NC--but added in Somerset, NJ, whose '08 margin for Obama [6.1%] was under Hamilton, OH's. It also cast less vote than Loudoun, VA in 2012, although not in 2008 [when it cast 151,430 votes].)

This might explain the omission of a number of the above counties from standard lists of Romney must-win counties. Kent County, Michigan voted for Obama by just 0.5% in 2008, and furthermore was not the largest county in Michigan to flip from Bush in '04 to Obama in '08 (that was Macomb, which had voted for Gore in 2000). Rockingham, NH voted for Obama by just 1.1%. Brown County, Wisconsin was the largest county in its state to flip to Obama in 2008, and voted for him by 9.1%, but it cast just 124,744 votes in 2008, substantially fewer than Loudoun (which was already something of an outlier in terms of size amongst the Romney must-win counties). 

Still, Brown is perhaps the county whose omission is hardest to explain. A clue probably lies in how Nate Cohn described Jefferson, Chester, Loudoun, Wake, and Somerset in the aforementioned post-election article: 

Obama also preserved many of his gains in affluent and well-educated suburban counties where many believed that Romney would perform well. Republicans won Jefferson, CO, Chester, PA, Loudon, VA, Wake, NC, and Somerset, NJ, in every presidential election from 1968 through 2004, but Obama carried all of them with the exception of Chester County, where Obama’s performance was still better than any other Democrat since Johnson.

One analyst who did include Brown County as a critical county for the 2012 election, Grace Wyler, described it in a way such as to make it obvious why it didn't fit in with these other counties, despite its ostensibly similar profile:

The blue-collar county is 90% white, with a median household income of $52,553, just above the national average. About 25% of voters have college degrees.

The same probably holds for why Nate Cohn and other analysts who, after the election, celebrated Obama's ability to hold affluent, highly-educated suburban counties didn't mention Hillsborough, NH (even though, unlike in the case of Brown County, Obama retained this county in 2012). After the 2020 election, Eugene Puryear cited Hillsborough, NH as an example of a county that it was not 'logical that Biden could win back...without winning additional white workers, especially those lower down on the income scale.' And on election night 2016, John King referenced 'Donald Trump's appeal to blue-collar voters in gritty Manchester, New Hampshire' (the largest city in Hillsborough). (Hillsborough--unlike any of the other Romney must-win counties--had also voted for Humphrey in 1968, which alone already ruled it out for consideration by Nate Cohn.)

It bespeaks the degree to which analysts largely zeroed in on counties with a family resemblance as the ones Romney had to win in 2012, that every 'Romney must-win county'--except for Hillsborough, NH (but including the one Romney managed to win back, Chester, PA)--voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. (Brown County, Wisconsin, however, did not.) Hillsborough, NH was likely included simply because, insofar as New Hampshire was a swing state, it was implausible that Romney should win it without carrying this county. 

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Of all 44 counties that cast over 100,000 votes in 2008 and that voted against Bill Clinton at least once, for George W. Bush twice, and for Obama in 2008, Romney carried just 13. Six of the 13 were ones in which Obama had won just a plurality in 2008 (Salt Lake, Kent [MI], Rockingham [NH], Marion [OR], Lake [OH], and Jackson [OR])--although Romney didn't even manage to flip every such county that had voted for Obama with just a plurality in 2008 (losing Fresno, CA). He also failed to win back a number of other counties that, while they gave Obama a majority in 2008, voted for him by a smaller margin than had Hillsborough, NH (let alone Hamilton, OH), such as Harris, TX (which he lost by 71 votes--but it had already been close in 2008), Riverside, CA, East Baton Rouge, LA, Chesapeake City, VA, and Saratoga, NY. 

Of the 44 counties, 24 voted against Bill Clinton both times. Twelve voted for Bush Sr in 1992 but not for Dole in 1996 (Hillsborough [FL], Lake [IL], Hillsborough [NH], East Baton Rouge, Rockingham [NH], Orange [NY], Brown [WI], Fayette [KY], Dutchess, Marion [OR], Lake [OH], and Saratoga). Eight voted for Dole in 1996 but not for Bush Sr in 1992 (San Diego, Riverside, Wake [about whose voting history Cohn was slightly mistaken], Fresno, Larimer, San Luis Obispo, Jackson [OR], and Sangamon). Of the 24 that voted against Bill Clinton twice, a further four voted for either George Wallace in 1968 and/or Jimmy Carter in 1976. Jefferson, AL voted for Wallace in '68; Forsyth, NC and Charleston, SC voted for Carter in '76; and Chesapeake City, VA voted for both. Only the remaining 20 had the pristine GOP voting record from 1968 through 2004 that Cohn mentioned.

The 44 counties were located in these states, with Illinois having the most (five), followed by California and Virginia at four each. Florida had one (albeit one of the larger ones on the list), relatively few for such a large state, which might explain why Pinellas, FL (a Republican stronghold from 1948 through 1988 that voted for Obama in '08 by 8.2% after having voted for Gore in 2000 and for Bush in 2004) was often listed as an additional Romney must-win county in the state.

If we count the 'swing states' in 2012 as the states (less Indiana) mentioned in Karl Rove's '3-2-1 strategy' (either as the 3, the 2, or the states that could be the '1 of anything else'), there was at least one oft-cited 'Romney must-win county' in all of them save New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The cases of Michigan and Wisconsin have already been discussed; Michigan was a rare case of a large state in which the largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county was not a traditionally Republican county. Furthermore, the margin in Michigan had been unusually large (16.4%). Ed Sarpolus essentially said that the 'Romney must-win county' in Michigan was Oakland County, a county that had voted to re-elect George H. W. Bush in 1992 (and before that had voted Republican in every election from 1968 on), but had voted for both Gore and Kerry. In Iowa and New Mexico, the largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county had not voted for Bush twice and against Clinton at least once (and, in these small states, the largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county didn't even cast 100,000 votes). The largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county in New Mexico was Sandoval, which cast 58,630 votes in 2008--respectable for such a small state--and had last voted for a loser of either party in 1968. The largest county in the state to have voted for Bush twice and against Clinton at least once before flipping to Obama was Los Alamos County, which cast 10,876 votes in 2008 (still somewhat respectable for such a small state--this represented 1.31% of the state's total vote that year). However, analysts were probably aware that in all likelihood Romney had to win Sandoval to have any hope of winning the state.

In Iowa, the largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county, Warren, cast 24,912 votes, and had voted Dukakis-Clinton-Clinton-Bush-Bush. (It also voted for Obama in 2008 by just 0.6%, and with just a plurality.) The two largest counties that had flipped to Obama in '08 after having voted for Bush twice and against Clinton at least once, Delaware and Iowa Counties, had erratically switched from Dukakis in '88 to Bush Sr in '92. (They also both cast fewer than 10,000 votes.) Again, here, analysts were likely aware that to have any hope of winning the state, Romney would have to carry some traditionally Democratic rural areas. (It's worth noting that New Mexico, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin--and New Hampshire--were the only 2012 swing states in which Obama had carried a majority of the counties in 2008. Probably, there was an intuition that Romney would simply have to reverse this and make these states ones in which he was carrying a majority of the counties, like in most states, in order to win.)

Finally, in Oregon--a true battleground state in 2000, a 'longer-list' battleground state in 2004, and a state in which Republicans had at one point hoped to 'mount an effective challenge' in 2012 (but which Rove did not mention in his '3-2-1' strategy)--Romney flipped both of the counties on the above list of 44 (Marion and Jackson) (although Obama won both in 2008 with just pluralities). However, the largest Bush '04-Obama '08 county in the state was Clackamas, which cast 191,878 votes and voted for Obama in '08 by 10.4%; it had been loyally Republican from 1948 through 1988, but then voted for Bill Clinton twice and then George W. Bush twice. Romney narrowed the margin but failed to flip it, and again, realistically (although Republicans appear to have given up on Oregon ahead of election day that year), Romney would almost certainly have had to flip Clackamas to carry the state.