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Eisenhower '52 - Stevenson '56 Arizona: Yuma Arkansas: Stone California: Amador, Madera, Merced (24,852), Placer, Shasta (20,149), Stanislaus, Yolo Florida: Flagler, Hernando Idaho: Nez Perce Illinois: Gallatin, Union Iowa: Wapello (21,381) Michigan: Alger, Macomb Minnesota: 12 Mississippi: 12, including Hinds (20,278) Missouri: 7, including Clay (27,041) Montana: 5 Nebraska: Saline Nevada: Clark (37,679) North Dakota: Mountrail, Rolette Oklahoma: 6 Oregon: Coos (20,394), Union, Wallowa South Carolina: 4, including Greenville (27,193) South Dakota: 11 Tennessee: Chester Texas: 28 Virginia: Nottoway, Rappahannock Washington: 9, including Clark (39,046) and Cowlitz (24,410) Total: 121 Stanislaus, CA: 54,927  (Hinds, MS, Clark, NV, and Greenville, SC were the most vote-casting counties in their states in 1956.) Stevenson '52 - Eisenhower '56 Alabama: 8 (including Jefferson, Mobile, and Montgomery) Arizona: Gila, Graham Arkansas: 4 (including Pulaski) California: Contra Cos...

FDR '44 - Dewey '48 ( 112 ) Butte, CA Glenn, CA Marin, CA (32,855) Mariposa, CA Mendocino, CA Monterey, CA (34,063) Napa, CA Nevada, CA San Bernardino, CA (95,838) San Diego, CA (205,459) San Joaquin, CA (59,361) San Luis Obispo, CA San Mateo, CA (86,272) Santa Barbara, CA (34,400) Santa Clara, CA (99,502) Stanislaus, CA (38,371) Tehama, CA Tuolumne, CA Kent, DE Broward, FL (19,521) Charlotte, FL Indian River, FL Lake, FL Lee, FL Manatee, FL Martin, FL Orange, FL (25,652) Palm Beach, FL (24,115) Pinellas, FL (44,524) Sarasota, FL Dawson, GA Camas, ID Franklin, ID Scott, IA (34,081) Iberia, LA Sagadahoc, ME Washington, ME Baraga, MI Houghton, MI Keweenaw, MI Ontonagon, MI Schoolcraft, MI Gallatin, MT Lewis and Clark, MT (10,176) Humboldt, NV Nye, NV Storey, NV Sullivan, NH Atlantic, NJ (58,071) Burlington, NJ (42,432) Cumberland, NJ (32,313) Gloucester, NJ (35,765) Clinton, NY Burke, NC Catawba, NC Davidson, NC Henderson, NC Lincoln, NC Divide, ND Eddy, ND Nelson, ND Ramsey, ND...

Three states have been the largest electoral prize: Virginia (1792-1808) New York (1812-1968) California (1972-) Pennsylvania held the spot of the second-largest electoral prize from 1824 to 1948. California and Pennsylvania were tied from 1952 to 1960, and California was clear second from 1964 to 1968. From 1972 to 2000, it was New York, and from 2004 on, it has been Texas. Counting just the states that held the second spot for more than one decade (from 1824 on): Pennsylvania (1824-1948) ... New York (1972-2000) Texas (2004-) Ohio was the third-largest electoral prize from 1844 to 1888, and Illinois, from 1892 to 1948. From 1952 to 1960, because two states were tied for second, there was no third-largest electoral state. From 1964 to 1980, it was Pennsylvania; from 1984 to 2000, Texas; from 2004 to 2008, New York. From 2012 to 2020, New York and Florida were tied for third, and from 2024 on, Florida will be in clear third: Ohio (1844-1888) Illinois (1892-1948) ... Pennsylvania (1964-...

2020 ( Biden 269 , Trump 217 , total 486 ) 2016 ( Trump 198 , Hillary Clinton 182 , total 380 ) 2012 ( Obama 332 , Romney 206 , total 538 ) 2008 ( Obama 338 , McCain 160 , total 498 ) 2004 ( Bush 274 , Kerry 242 , total 516 ) 2000 ( Bush 217 , Gore 223 , total 440 ) 1996 ( Clinton 230 , Dole 32 , total 262 ) 1992 ( Clinton 9 , George H. W. Bush 0 , total 9 ) 1988 ( George H. W. Bush 426 , Dukakis 112 , total 538 ) 1984 ( Reagan 525 , Mondale 3 , total 528 ) 1980 ( Reagan 254 , Carter 15 , total 269 ) 1976 ( Carter 254 , Ford 149 , total 403 ) 1972 ( Nixon 521 , McGovern 17 , total 538 ) 1968 ( Nixon 79 , Humphrey 36 , total 115 ) 1964 ( Johnson 486 , Goldwater 52 , total 538 ) 1960 ( Kennedy 266 , Nixon 220 , total 486 /537) 1956 ( Eisenhower 446 , Stevenson 66 , total 512 /531) 1952 ( Eisenhower 431 , Stevenson 79 , total 510 /531) 1948 ( Truman 219 , Dewey 88 , total 307 /531) 1944 ( Roosevelt 432 , Dewey 99 , total 531 /531) 1940 ( Roosevelt 449 , Willkie 63 , t...

There were 173 counties in these states that voted for Dewey in 1944 and then voted for Kerry in 2004. Alpine, CA Imperial, CA Lake, CA Mono, CA San Benito, CA Santa Cruz, CA (122,084) Sonoma, CA (220,690) Adams, CO (136,672) Boulder, CO (159,257) Clear Creek, CO Gilpin, CO La Plata, CO Pitkin, CO Saguache, CO San Juan, CO Summit, CO Fairfield, CT (400,967) Middlesex, CT Tolland, CT Alexander, IL Calhoun, IL Champaign, IL Fulton, IL Henderson, IL Jackson, IL Knox, IL Mercer, IL Peoria, IL Putnam, IL Whiteside, IL LaPorte, IN Marion, IN (320,838) Monroe, IN Buchanan, IA Chickasaw, IA Clarke, IA Clayton, IA Clinton, IA Des Moines, IA Fayette, IA Floyd, IA Jackson, IA Jefferson, IA Jones, IA Lee, IA Linn, IA Mitchell, IA Muscatine, IA Story, IA Winneshiek, IA Douglas, KS Carter, KY Magoffin, KY Aroostook, ME Cumberland, ME Franklin, ME Hancock, ME Kennebec, ME Knox, ME Lincoln, ME Oxford, ME Penobscot, ME Somerset, ME Waldo, ME Baltimore County, MD (353,479) Charles, MD Howard, MD...

2020 : California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont ( map ) Even split: Maine 2016 : California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont ( map ) 2012 : California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont ( map ) 2008 : California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin ( map ) (Contrast with 1932) 2004 : Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont ( map ) 2000 : Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont ( map ) 1996 : Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South ...

In 2013, Cook Rhodes observed that Obama in 2012 had gotten a lower share of the vote in 19 states than Dukakis had in 1988.  We can now find the states in which Biden got a lower vote share in 2020 than Dukakis did in 1988 as well. Before we do that, for context, these are the states in which Gore , Kerry , Obama in '08 , and Hillary Clinton got a lower vote share than Dukakis.  Every Democratic nominee in the 21st century got a substantially higher vote share than Dukakis, but Biden in 2020 and Obama in 2012 got particularly comparable vote shares (51.3% and 51.1%, respectively). These are the states where Biden in 2020 got a lower vote share than Dukakis: Alabama ( 39.86% / 36.57% ) Arkansas ( 42.19% / 34.78% ) Idaho ( 36.01% / 33.07% ) Iowa ( 54.71% / 44.89% ) Kansas ( 42.56% / 41.56% ) Kentucky ( 43.88% / 36.15% ) Louisiana ( 44.06% / 39.85% ) Minnesota ( 52.91% / 52.40% ) Missouri ( 47.85% / 41.41% ) Montana ( 46.20% / 40.55% ) Nebraska ( 39.20% / 39.17% ) North Dako...

Sometimes, a presidential nominee sweeps all of a state's counties. This generally means that the nominee is winning the state very strongly. In theory, a nominee could be winning all of a state's counties narrowly, but that is unlikely if the state has more than a certain number of counties. (Some examples of states with very few counties being close despite one nominee carrying every county are Hawaii in 1976 and Delaware in 1980.) The authors of 'The Butterfly Did It' analysed Connecticut, Hawaii, Delaware, and Rhode Island separately from other states because 'they have too few counties to analyze separately' (p. 797). For convenience, even though this project is different, we'll treat sweeping the counties of Connecticut, Hawaii, Delaware, or Rhode Island (which have eight, four, three, and five counties, respectively) as irrelevant.  In addition to strong support, a county sweep of a state also implies breadth of support for the party across a state. ...

In 2012, Michael Barone defined the five states of Tennessee, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and West Virginia as the 'Scots-Irish zone' . In 2008, he named the region differently-- 'Greater Appalachia' --and added in Alabama. The Republican Party has, of course, retained much of its base in the Plains West, the 'American Redoubt' states of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho (plus Utah) (if not the entire Mountain West), Indiana, and the Deep South, but this region has become the heart of the new Republican coalition. It (or states close to it and that have behaved in similar ways) have birthed rising stars in the GOP such as Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley (Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz, whose congressional districts are adjacent to and arguably culturally allied with Greater Appalachia states, could also be included). Despite the region including no large states, in 2020, Tennessee displaced Texas as the Republican Party's biggest presidential vote trove. There...

1. 1932: 35.1% Democratic 2. 1920: 29.3% Republican 3. 1976: 25.3% Democratic 4. 1964: 22.4% Democratic 5. 1960: 15.57% Democratic 6. 1952: 15.33% Republican 7. 1876: 14.8% Democratic 8. 1940: 14.4% Republican 9. 1904: 12.7% Republican 10. 1988: 10.4% Democratic 11. 1908: 10.3% Democratic 12. 2008: 9.7% Democratic 13. 1840: 8.9% Whig 14. 1844: 7.5% Democratic This is counting only pairs of consecutive elections in which the two major parties combined to account for over 94% of the vote in both elections. These are all fourteen swings that were greater than 7%. If we consider a 'landslide' an election in which one nominee wins at least 55% of the popular vote, then landslides and elections following landslides account for the top eleven greatest swings (or all those greater than 10%). Furthermore, every landslide and post-landslide election, of which it is the case that the two major parties combined to account for > 94% of the vote in both the election in quest...