Bush's weakness in the exurbs, 2004

It is easy to track Bush's weakness in 2004 in the suburban counties that would go on to typify the 'Obama coalition' in 2008. However, even in counties that were to all appearances still powerfully Republican in 2004 and were more 'exurban', Bush--at least in some cases--also softened in 2004 in a somewhat noteworthy way (especially considering that in that election, nationally, he increased his vote share, and Kerry's dipped slightly relative to Gore's). 

These are some counties that held on for McCain and for Trump in 2016 (and, in some cases, for Trump in 2020), in which Bush's vote share declined in 2004 and Kerry's rose:

Collier, FL
2000: Bush 65.6%, Gore 32.5%
2004: Bush 65.0%, Kerry 34.1%

Hamilton, IN
2000: Bush 74.3%, Gore 23.7%
2004: Bush 74.2%, Kerry 25.2%

Delaware, OH
2000: Bush 66.13%, Gore 30.9%
2004: Bush 66.05%, Kerry 33.6%

Rankin, MS
2000: Bush 79.6%, Gore 19.4%
2004: Bush 78.7%, Kerry 20.1%

Lancaster, PA
2000: Bush 66.1%, Gore 31.3%
2004: Bush 65.8%, Kerry 33.6%

Greenville, SC
2000: Bush 66.1%, Gore 31.2%
2004: Bush 66.0%, Kerry 32.8%

Collin, TX
2000: Bush 73.1%, Gore 24.5%
2004: Bush 71.2%, Kerry 28.1%

Williamson, TX
2000: Bush 67.8%, Gore 27.7%
2004: Bush 65.0%, Kerry 33.6%

Hays, TX
2000: Bush 58.8%, Gore 33.2%
2004: Bush 56.5%, Kerry 42.1%

Fort Bend, TX (voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016)
2000: Bush 59.6%, Gore 38.5%
2004: Bush 57.4%, Kerry 42.1%

Chesterfield, VA
2000: Bush 63.0%, Gore 34.8%
2004: Bush 62.6%, Kerry 36.9%

Hamilton (IN), Delaware (OH), and Collin were listed in the 2009 list of 'top 20 conservative-friendly counties'. In 2017, David Jarman identified Fort Bend County, TX as a Republican stronghold whose voting Democratic would normally have indicated to him 'a crushing Democratic victory'.

Some others discernibly trended Democratic in 2004, even though Bush did manage to increase his vote share: in Denton (again, surprisingly in his home state), he improved by just 0.35% whilst Kerry improved by 2.1%.

Lancaster County, Pennsylvania--the largest county to vote Republican in Pennsylvania in 2008, 2016, and 2020--is not usually described as 'exurban', and falling Republican vote shares in it are not generally cited as cause for alarm. However, in 2012, Jeff Geoghan wrote, 'Some boroughs in Central Pennsylvania have assumed an exurbanite flavor à la Camp Hill across the river from Harrisburg or Lititz in the northern half of Lancaster County.' In 2012, Romney reached only 58.5% in Lancaster County, and in 2016, Trump fell below even this, getting 56.3%. Even though he slightly improved in 2020 to 56.9%, this was still below any other Republican nominee this century aside from himself in 2016 and McCain; and Biden became only the second Democrat to break 40% in it since 1964, aside from Obama in '08.

This also happened in one smaller county that Biden flipped in 2020 that had last voted Democratic before the 21st century:

Inyo, CA
2000: Bush 60.3%, Gore 33.9%
2004: Bush 59.1%, Kerry 38.9%

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