> 100,000 county raw vote margins
The number of counties a nominee carries by over 100,000 raw votes can be taken as a rough measure of his or her performance in population centres (although only if compared to temporally proximate nominees). A nominee can net 100,000 votes out of a county by winning it only moderately or even narrowly, but in that case, it would be a very large county. Conversely, a nominee can net 100,000 votes out of a county that casts not much over 100,000 votes by winning it by a very lopsided margin proportionally. (The two smallest counties to have been won by a > 100,000 vote margin this century are Utah County, Utah in 2004 [which cast 149,173 votes] and Marin County, California in 2020 [which cast 155,801 votes].) However, any county that is being won by at least 100,000 raw votes must, by definition, have cast at least 100,000 votes. In 1996, the CQ Almanac set 100,000 registered voters as the threshold for a 'populous beachhead' county. After 2016, 0ptimus and OZY conducted a study of counties that had cast over 100,000 votes in that election. After 2020, 'TheValuesVoter' noted that 'only 2 of the 15 counties that Trump flipped had 100,000 or more total votes cast in the 2020 election.'
Comparing numbers of counties carried by over 100,000 votes across time can be anachronistic, because there are more and more counties that are casting over 100,000 votes. In their analysis of the 2016 election, Salena Zito and Brad Todd classed those counties with a population greater than a million as 'mega-counties', and those with a population between 400,000 and 1,000,000 as 'extra-large'. Of course, number of votes cast is an easier, if imperfect, metric whereby to classify counties, and it so happens that the three 'mega-counties' Trump carried in 2016 (Suffolk, NY, Tarrant, TX, and Maricopa, AZ) were also the only ones that cast over 500,000 votes that year (#4 Pinellas, FL cast 492,403). (In an analysis of how the counties voted in 2020, the Times of India did in fact classify counties by the number of votes they had cast, with the topmost category being those that had cast over 500,000 votes.)
However, Republicans still do not carry very many counties by more than 100,000 votes (and those that they do, they do not tend to carry by very much more than 100,000 votes). In July 2020, OK Dodo noted that 'Montgomery County, Texas was the only county in the entire USA where Donald Trump won by a margin of more than 100,000 votes', an indication not only of Trump's strength in that county but of that county's being unusual in its combination of population and support for Trump.
It appears that the first election in which any nominee won a county by over 100,000 votes was 1896.
1896
William McKinley
Philadelphia County, PA (113,139)
1900
William McKinley
Philadelphia County, PA (115,478)
1904
Theodore Roosevelt
Philadelphia County, PA (178,925)
Cook County, IL (126,086)
1908
William Howard Taft
Philadelphia County, PA (109,953)
1916
Charles Evans Hughes
Philadelphia County, PA (103,363)
(first losing nominee to net over 100,000 votes out of a county)
1920
Warren Harding (6)
Cook County, IL (437,698)
Philadelphia County, PA (217,675)
Brooklyn, NY (173,080)
Wayne County, MI (168,709)
Manhattan, NY (139,764)
Los Angeles County, CA (122,456)
Calvin Coolidge (4)
1928
Herbert Hoover (3)
Al Smith (4)
(first Democrat to net over 100,000 votes out of a county)
1932
Franklin Roosevelt (10)
1936
Franklin Roosevelt (17)
1940
Franklin Roosevelt (11)
1944
Franklin Roosevelt (8)
1948
Harry Truman (6)
Thomas Dewey (1)
Nassau County, NY (113,792)
1952
Dwight Eisenhower (5)
Adlai Stevenson (5)
1956
Dwight Eisenhower (11)
1960
John Kennedy (11)
Lyndon Johnson (29)
Bristol County, MA (107,655)
Hubert Humphrey (11)
Richard Nixon (1)
Orange County, CA (166,036)
1972
Richard Nixon (22)
George McGovern (1)
Manhattan, NY (175,811)
1976
Jimmy Carter (7)
1980
Ronald Reagan (10)
Jimmy Carter (5)
1984
Ronald Reagan (21)
Walter Mondale (7)
1988
George H. W. Bush (8)
Michael Dukakis (13)
(last time to date that the Republican's largest raw vote margin in a single county was bigger than the Democrat's out of any single county)
Bill Clinton (18)
Los Angeles County, CA (646,922)
Cook County, IL (644,233)
Manhattan, NY (331,641)
Philadelphia County, PA (301,576)
Wayne County, MI (281,462)
Brooklyn, NY (277,839)
Alameda County, CA (224,932)
Queens, NY (191,959)
King County, WA (178,064)
San Francisco, CA (175,911)
The Bronx, NY (161,728)
Cuyahoga County, OH (150,362)
Middlesex County, MA (150,291)
Baltimore City, MD (145,028)
Allegheny County, PA (140,969)
Santa Clara County, CA (125,395)
Broward County, FL (111,529)
Orange County, CA (119,683)
1996
Bill Clinton (23)
Cook County, IL (691,732)
Los Angeles County, CA (684,085)
Brooklyn, NY (350,826)
Wayne County, MI (328,580)
Philadelphia County, PA (327,643)
Manhattan, NY (326,292)
Queens, NY (265,275)
Middlesex County, MA (228,264)
The Bronx, NY (217,841)
Alameda County, CA (197,322)
King County, WA (185,035)
Broward County, FL (177,909)
Cuyahoga County, OH (177,587)
San Francisco, CA (164,298)
Santa Clara County, CA (129,348)
Prince George's County, MD (123,915)
Baltimore City, MD (116,974)
Hennepin County, MN (111,239)
Essex County, NJ (110,206)
Dade County, FL (107,815)
Nassau County, NY (106,767)
Suffolk County, MA (105,833)
Orleans Parish, LA (105,144)
Bob Dole (1)
Orange County, CA (119,232)
2000
Al Gore (23)
Los Angeles County, CA (838,575)
Cook County, IL (746,005)
Brooklyn, NY (382,047)
Manhattan, NY (350,383)
Philadelphia County, PA (348,223)
Wayne County, MI (307,393)
Queens, NY (287,539)
Alameda County, CA (223,610)
The Bronx, NY (223,098)
Broward County, FL (209,821)
Middlesex County, MA (205,129)
King County, WA (203,529)
San Francisco, CA (190,082)
Cuyahoga County, OH (167,814)
Prince George's County, MD (166,132)
Santa Clara County, CA (143,740)
Baltimore City, MD (131,615)
Essex County, NJ (118,663)
Nassau County, NY (117,028)
Palm Beach County, FL (116,790)
Suffolk County, MA (110,447)
Montgomery County, MD (107,873)
Multnomah County, OR (104,764)
2004
John Kerry (28)
Cook County, IL (842,319)
Los Angeles County, CA (831,511)
Manhattan, NY (419,360)
Philadelphia County, PA (412,106)
Brooklyn, NY (347,824)
Wayne County, MI (342,297)
Alameda County, CA (291,674)
King County, WA (279,335)
Queens, NY (267,881)
San Francisco, CA (242,417)
Cuyahoga County, OH (226,880)
The Bronx, NY (227,293)
Broward County, FL (209,199)
Prince George's County, MD (205,000)
Middlesex County, MA (203,047)
Multnomah County, OR (161,146)
Baltimore City, MD (138,792)
Montgomery County, MD (137,602)
Hennepin County, MN (128,708)
Suffolk County, MA (127,669)
DeKalb County, GA (127,217)
Essex County, NJ (120,487)
Milwaukee County, WI (117,366)
Palm Beach County, FL (115,999)
San Mateo County, CA (114,607)
Orleans Parish, LA (109,763)
Contra Costa County, CA (106,646)
George W. Bush (6)
Orange County, CA (222,593)
Maricopa County, AZ (174,606)
Tarrant County, TX (142,176)
Utah County, UT (110,912)
Harris County, TX (108,858)
Collin County, TX (105,500)
Barack Obama (49)
Los Angeles County, CA (1,339,428)
Cook County, IL (1,141,288)
Manhattan, NY (482,220)
Philadelphia County, PA (478,759)
Brooklyn, NY (451,653)
Wayne County, MI (440,503)
King County, WA (388,514)
Alameda County, CA (369,551)
Queens, NY (325,471)
The Bronx, NY (296,578)
Prince George's County, MD (293,563)
Santa Clara County, CA (272,202)
San Francisco, CA (269,928)
Cuyahoga County, OH (258,340)
Broward County, FL (254,911)
Middlesex County, MA (218,718)
Multnomah County, OR (204,525)
Montgomery County, MD (195,836)
Hennepin County, MN (189,904)
DeKalb County, GA (189,013)
Baltimore City, MD (185,704)
Contra Costa County, CA (170,547)
Milwaukee County, WI (170,374)
Essex County, NJ (166,331)
Suffolk County, MA (149,934)
San Mateo County, CA (147,769)
Denver, CO (142,315)
Fulton County, GA (141,864)
Dade County, FL (139,280)
Palm Beach County, FL (135,234)
Dane County, WI (132,919)
Hartford County, CT (129,737)
Oahu County, HI (126,075)
San Diego County, CA (125,549)
Clark County, NV (123,687)
Travis County, TX (117,036)
Franklin County, OH (116,206)
Westchester County, NY (113,986)
Sonoma County, CA (113,761)
Dallas County, TX (112,989)
St Louis County, MO (111,418)
Shelby County, TN (110,839)
Fairfax County, VA (109,365)
St Louis City, MO (108,263)
Marion County, IN (107,674)
New Castle County, DE (104,160)
Sacramento County, CA (102,923)
Allegheny County, PA (100,806)
Mecklenburg County, NC (100,110)
John McCain (1)
Maricopa County, AZ (144,282)
2012
Barack Obama (39)
Los Angeles County, CA (1,331,570)
Cook County, IL (992,995)
Philadelphia County, PA (492,339)
Brooklyn, NY (479,892)
Manhattan, NY (413,115)
King County, WA (392,304)
Wayne County, MI (382,032)
Alameda County, CA (361,502)
Queens, NY (352,143)
Prince George's County, MD (312,204)
The Bronx, NY (309,244)
Santa Clara County, CA (275,975)
Broward County, FL (264,211)
Cuyahoga County, OH (256,581)
San Francisco, CA (254,647)
Dade County, FL (208,459)
Middlesex County, MA (204,483)
Montgomery County, MD (200,047)
Multnomah County, OR (199,585)
Baltimore City, MD (193,307)
Hennepin County, MN (183,906)
Milwaukee County, WI (177,514)
DeKalb County, GA (173,832)
Essex County, NJ (172,212)
Suffolk County, MA (163,897)
Contra Costa County, CA (154,307)
Denver, CO (148,907)
San Mateo County, CA (133,329)
Dane County, WI (132,427)
Franklin County, OH (130,349)
Fulton County, GA (118,346)
Oahu County, HI (115,830)
Hudson County, NJ (110,739)
Dallas County, TX (109,758)
Fairfax County, VA (108,500)
Palm Beach County, FL (102,253)
Hartford County, CT (101,401)
Clark County, NV (100,883)
Mecklenburg County, NC (100,594)
Mitt Romney (3)
2016
Hillary Clinton (49)
Dade County, FL (290,147)
DeKalb County, GA (199,902)
Donald Trump (1)
Montgomery County, TX (104,479)
2020
Joe Biden (64)
Los Angeles County, CA (1,883,355)
Cook County, IL (1,167,704)
King County, WA (638,143)
Manhattan, NY (517,855)
Brooklyn, NY (500,538)
Alameda County, CA (481,350)
Philadelphia County, PA (471,050)
Santa Clara County, CA (403,355)
Middlesex County, MA (390,240)
San Diego County, CA (364,556)
Queens, NY (356,373)
Prince George's County, MD (342,118)
Wayne County, MI (332,617)
Hennepin County, MN (326,650)
San Francisco, CA (321,739)
Montgomery County, MD (318,347)
Dallas County, TX (291,500)
The Bronx, NY (287,634)
Broward County, FL (285,343)
Multnomah County, OR (284,254)
Travis County, TX (274,523)
Contra Costa County, CA (263,509)
Fairfax County, VA (251,542)
DeKalb County, GA (249,854)
Fulton County, GA (243,904)
Denver, CO (241,675)
Harris County, TX (217,563)
San Mateo County, CA (215,847)
Cuyahoga County, OH (213,477)
Suffolk County, MA (211,909)
Mecklenburg County, NC (198,896)
Franklin County, OH (197,907)
Essex County, NJ (191,345)
Milwaukee County, WI (182,913)
Baltimore City, MD (181,886)
Dane County, WI (181,385)
Sacramento County, CA (181,403)
Westchester County, NY (167,658)
Wake County, NC (167,139)
Orange County, FL (149,616)
Norfolk County, MA (148,018)
Allegheny County, PA (147,846)
Bexar County, TX (139,834)
Sonoma County, CA (138,113)
Orange County, CA (137,511) (53.48%-44.44%)
Ramsey County, MN (134,244)
Montgomery County, PA (134,051)
St Louis County, MO (128,658)
Fairfield County, CT (128,466)
Hartford County, CT (124,344)
Essex County, MA (122,361)
Orleans Parish, LA (121,190)
Boulder County, CO (116,588)
Shelby County, TN (116,290)
Hudson County, NJ (115,754)
Marion County, IN (113,597)
Durham County, NC (112,229)
Baltimore County, MD (112,207)
Washington County, OR (110,867)
Oakland County, MI (108,177)
New Castle County, DE (106,670)
Marin County, CA (103,676)
Oahu County, HI (102,610)
Washtenaw County, MI (100,895)
Donald Trump (2)
Montgomery County, TX: 119,005
Utah County, UT: 116,779
First time the following counties gave any nominee a > 100,000 vote margin: Marin, CA, Boulder, CO, Washtenaw, MI, Montgomery, PA, Washington, OR, Durham, NC, Bexar, TX
First time the following counties gave a Democrat a > 100,000 vote margin: Fairfield, CT, Baltimore County, MD, and Oakland, MI (Fairfield had given a Republican one in 1956, 1972, and 1984; Baltimore County, in 1972; and Oakland, in 1984 and 1988)
Number of Biden > 100,000-vote county margins per state:
California: 11
New York: 5
Maryland, Massachusetts, Texas: 4
Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania: 3
These states: 2
These states: 1
The only counties that gave Hillary Clinton a > 100,000 vote margin, that did not give Biden one, were both in Florida (Dade and Palm Beach).
Trump's best margin in a state where there was at least one county that gave Biden a > 100,000 vote margin was Tennessee (23.21%). His best margin in a state where there were at least two was Ohio (8.03%). His best margin in a state where there were at least three was Texas (5.58%).
---
It is possible to win a county by > 100,000 votes without winning it especially strongly in proportional terms. However, unless a county is casting over a million votes--a growing but still rare phenomenon--it is impossible to win a county by over 100,000 votes without also winning it by at least 10%. The instances in which a nominee carried a county by over 100,000 votes without winning it by at least 10% are those in which I listed the percent results in parentheses. (It should be noted that even in these cases, it is still noteworthy for a nominee to carry the county by 100,000 votes, as it means that the nominee is carrying--by whatever margin--a county that is so great a population centre that a > 10% margin is not even required to net that many raw votes out of it. But it doesn't necessarily mean that that county is a stronghold for that nominee's party.)
---
Least vote-casting counties to give a nominee a > 100,000 vote margin
Utah County, Utah, 2004 (149,173) Bush 86.0%-Kerry 11.6%
Marin County, California, 2020 (155,801) Biden 82.3%-Trump 15.8%
St Louis City, Missouri, 2008 (158,858) Obama 83.7%-McCain 15.5%
Orleans Parish, Louisiana, 2016 (165,812) Hillary Clinton 80.8%-Trump 14.7%
Montgomery County, Texas, 2012 (173,113) Romney 79.7%-Obama 19.0%
Utah County, Utah, 2012 (177,713) Romney 88.3%-Obama 9.7%
Orleans Parish, Louisiana, 2020 (177,819) Biden 83.2%-Trump 15.0%
Durham County, North Carolina, 2020 (179,914) Biden 80.4%-Trump 18.0%
Baltimore City, Maryland, 1996 (183,323) Clinton 63.8%-Dole 15.5%
Bristol County, Massachusetts, 1964 (186,636) Johnson 78.7%-Goldwater 21.0%
Orleans Parish, Louisiana, 1996 (189,911) Clinton 76.2%-Dole 20.8%
Baltimore City, Maryland, 2000 (192,404) Gore 82.5%-Bush 14.1%
Orleans Parish, Louisiana, 2004 (197,103) Kerry 77.4%-Bush 21.7%
Hudson County, New Jersey, 2012 (197,504) Obama 77.5%-Romney 21.5%
Suffolk County, Massachusetts, 1996 (199,392) Clinton 73.0%-Dole 19.9%
These are, I believe, all the instances in which a county casting under 200,000 votes has given a nominee a > 100,000-vote margin. (At 200,000 votes cast, a nominee would have to win the county by better than three-to-one to net 100,000 votes out of it.) All of these happened within the last seven elections, perhaps a sign of the growing polarisation of the country's politics. It may also be a reflection of the growing number of counties at various size levels that are able to give nominees > 100,000-vote margins. Be that as it may, Orleans Parish came very close to giving FDR a > 100,000-vote margin in 1936 whilst casting only 118,282 votes (he won it 91.3%-8.7%, netting 97,758 raw votes out of it); and Nixon netted over 100,000 votes out of Oklahoma County in 1972 as it cast just 207,925 votes.
[Edit: This was before I saw that Lyndon Johnson had carried Bristol County, MA by over 100,000 votes in 1964.]
Excluding the last seven elections, the next-smallest (those that cast between 200,000 and 225,000 votes) have been (interestingly, all were carried by Republicans):
Oklahoma County, Oklahoma, 1972 (207,925) Nixon 75.2%-McGovern 22.6%
Suffolk County, New York, 1956 (216,232) Eisenhower 77.6%-Stevenson 22.4%
Tulsa County, Oklahoma, 1984 (218,872) Reagan 72.9%-Mondale 26.6%
In the last seven elections, this category of county has been joined by Suffolk, MA in 2000 (217,000 votes cast, 71.4%-20.5%), Hudson, NJ in 2008 (211,616, 72.8%-26.2%), Washtenaw, MI in 2020 (216,931, 72.4%-25.9%), and Boulder, CO in 2020 (206,111, 77.2%-20.6%)--all on the Democratic side, and the latter two (along with Marin and Durham) newcomers to the list of counties that have ever given any nominee a > 100,000-vote margin.
---
As OK Dodo pointed out, Trump may have carried just one county by over 100,000 votes in 2016, which was indeed, as he or she implied, an unusual accomplishment for a winning presidential nominee--it was the fewest of any winning nominee since Nixon also carried just one county by over 100,000 votes in 1968.
However, Bush's three > 100,000-vote county margins in 2000, and even his six in 2004, were also historically unusual, at least when compared with his Democratic rivals in those elections. In 1948, 1968, and 1976, the numbers of counties the Democratic and Republican nominees carried by over 100,000 votes were separated by no more than ten. (In 1960, Nixon carried no counties by over 100,000 votes [whereas Kennedy carried 11], and furthermore, his largest county raw vote margin [out of Bergen, NJ] was smaller than Willkie's out of Westchester in 1940 or Dewey's out of Nassau in 1944, so something odd does seem to have been going on there.) In 2000, Bush carried three counties by over 100,000 votes--on its own, not unusual; the same number Ford carried in 1976. But at the same time, Gore carried 23, twenty more than him, and matching Bill Clinton in 1996 for the second-most counties carried by over 100,000 votes by any nominee in history (and setting the outright record for the most counties carried by over 100,000 votes by any losing nominee):
1. Lyndon Johnson, 1964 (29)
2. Al Gore, 2000 (23)
2. Bill Clinton, 1996 (23)
4. Richard Nixon, 1972 (22)
5. Ronald Reagan, 1984 (21)
6. Bill Clinton, 1992 (18)
7. Franklin Roosevelt, 1936 (17)
8. Michael Dukakis, 1988 (13)
9. Hubert Humphrey, 1968 (11)
9. John Kennedy, 1960 (11)
9. Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (11)
9. Franklin Roosevelt, 1940 (11)
In 2004, Bush carried six counties by over 100,000 votes--a marked improvement, although in Collin County, Texas (one of the three additions), his vote share fell nearly two points relative to 2000, and Kerry improved by over 3.5% over Gore, so increased turnout seems to have been the explanation. (In the other two additions--Maricopa and Utah County, UT--Bush expanded his margin impressively.) Six is more than any of Dewey in 1948, Nixon in 1960, Nixon in 1968, or Ford in 1976 (and would have been the most for any losing Republican, if Bush had lost, a distinction that instead is shared by Ford and Romney)--although it was still fewer than the number of counties carried by Kennedy, Humphrey, or Carter in 1976 by over 100,000 votes (and the same as the number carried by Truman in 1948). It was also fewer than the number carried by Mondale.
Meanwhile, Kerry carried 28--tying Lyndon Johnson in 1964 for the all-time record for most counties carried by a nominee by over 100,000 votes:
1. John Kerry, 2004 (28)
1. Lyndon Johnson, 1968 (29)
3. Al Gore, 2000 (23)
3. Bill Clinton, 1996 (23)
5. Richard Nixon, 1972 (22)
6. Ronald Reagan, 1984 (21)
7. Bill Clinton, 1992 (18)
8. Franklin Roosevelt, 1936 (17)
9. Michael Dukakis, 1988 (13)
10. Hubert Humphrey, 1968 (11)
10. John Kennedy, 1960 (11)
10. Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (11)
10. Franklin Roosevelt, 1940 (11)
No nominee had ever tied the record for the most counties carried by over 100,000 votes, and lost. (This would happen again in 2016.) This might not be that noteworthy if the number of counties Bush was carrying by such a raw vote margin was at all comparable, but it wasn't. [Edit: Lyndon Johnson actually won 29 counties by at least 100,000 votes; and Obama actually carried 50 counties by at least 100,000 votes, instead of 49 (the number Hillary Clinton carried in 2016).]
---
These are the counties that have been carried by over 100,000 votes on multiple occasions by the Republican Party (excluding Los Angeles and Cook Counties) (italicised nominees lost their elections):
Maricopa County, Arizona
Richard Nixon, 1972 (69.29%-26.95%)
Gerald Ford, 1976 (61.66%-34.53%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (64.97%-24.60%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (71.98%-27.06%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (64.90%-33.89%)
George W. Bush, 2004 (56.86%-42.25%)
John McCain, 2008 (54.43%-43.91%)
Mitt Romney, 2012 (54.30%-43.61%)
Orange County, California
Richard Nixon, 1968 (63.14%-29.85%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (68.27%-26.93%)
Gerald Ford, 1976 (62.16%-35.33%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (67.90%-22.65%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (74.70%-24.27%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (67.75%-31.09%)
George H. W. Bush, 1992 (43.87%-31.56%)
Bob Dole, 1996 (51.67%-37.88%)
George W. Bush, 2000 (55.75%-40.36%)
George W. Bush, 2004 (59.68%-38.98%)
San Diego County, California
Richard Nixon, 1972 (61.82%-34.34%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (60.81%-27.26%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (65.30%-33.41%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (60.19%-38.34%)
Fairfield County, Connecticut
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (70.19%-29.81%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (64.00%-34.34%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (65.78%-33.81%)
Pinellas County, Florida
Richard Nixon, 1972 (69.83%-30.02%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (65.16%-34.82%)
DuPage County, Illinois
Richard Nixon, 1972 (75.02%-24.83%)
Gerald Ford, 1976 (68.77%-28.34%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (64.02%-24.23%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (75.66%-23.79%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (69.39%-30.02%)
Oakland County, Michigan
Richard Nixon, 1972 (63.78%-34.16%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (66.71%-32.76%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (61.27%-37.78%)
Wayne County, Michigan
Warren Harding, 1920 (74.75%-17.55%)
Calvin Coolidge, 1924 (80.11%-11.86%)
Herbert Hoover, 1928 (62.30%-36.80%)
St Louis County, Missouri
Richard Nixon, 1972 (62.16%-37.84%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (63.99%-36.01%)
Bergen County, New Jersey
Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 (69.22%-30.37%)
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (75.22%-24.30%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (65.34%-33.68%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (63.22%-36.50%)
Nassau County, New York
Thomas Dewey, 1948 (69.48%-26.58%)
Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 (69.87%-29.75%)
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (69.08%-30.92%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (63.31%-36.48%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (55.97%-34.83%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (61.83%-37.96%)
Suffolk County, New York
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (77.64%-22.36%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (70.34%-29.44%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (57.00%-33.35%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (66.03%-33.72%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (60.51%-38.73%)
Westchester County, New York
Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 (67.38%-32.21%)
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (72.17%-27.83%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (62.83%-36.90%)
Queens, New York
Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 (57.11%-41.98%)
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (59.39%-40.61%)
Hamilton County, Ohio
Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 (66.11%-33.89%)
Richard Nixon, 1972 (65.65%-32.67%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (63.34%-36.10%)
Franklin County, Ohio
Richard Nixon, 1972 (63.74%-34.09%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (64.12%-33.68%)
Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania
William McKinley, 1896 (72.06%-25.86%)
William McKinley, 1900 (73.93%-24.77%)
Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 (80.85%-17.32%)
William Howard Taft, 1908 (69.09%-28.09%)
Charles Evans Hughes, 1916 (66.81%-31.25%)
Warren Harding, 1920 (73.43%-21.50%)
Calvin Coolidge, 1924 (77.73%-12.13%)
Herbert Hoover, 1928 (59.99%-39.48%)
Harris County, Texas
Richard Nixon, 1972 (62.56%-36.94%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (57.87%-38.06%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (61.46%-38.31%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (57.02%-42.12%)
George W. Bush, 2000 (54.28%-42.91%)
George W. Bush, 2004 (54.75%-44.56%)
Dallas County, Texas
Richard Nixon, 1972 (69.53%-29.55%)
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (59.18%-36.75%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (66.41%-33.35%)
George H. W. Bush, 1988 (58.38%-40.91%)
Tarrant County, Texas
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (67.25%-32.57%)
George W. Bush, 2000 (60.74%-36.78%)
George W. Bush, 2004 (62.39%-37.01%)
Montgomery County, Texas
Mitt Romney, 2012 (79.5%-19.0%)
Donald Trump, 2016 (73.0%-22.3%)
Donald Trump, 2020 (71.2%-27.4%)
Salt Lake County, Utah
Ronald Reagan, 1980 (67.00%-23.13%)
Ronald Reagan, 1984 (69.28%-29.63%)
Utah County, Utah
George W. Bush, 2004 (86.0%-11.6%)
Mitt Romney, 2012 (88.3%-9.7%)
Donald Trump, 2020 (66.7%-26.3%)
Unsurprisingly, the county that has been carried by Republicans by over 100,000 votes the most times is Orange, CA (10), with Philadelphia County and Maricopa County tied for second at eight each, and Nassau and Harris Counties tied for fourth at six each. (Furthermore, the ten times for Orange County were consecutive, which wasn't the case for either Philadelphia or Maricopa County--the second-most consecutive elections in which a county has given Republicans > 100,000-vote margins is a tie between Maricopa and DuPage, at five each [from 1972 to 1988].) A bit surprisingly, though, Maricopa and Philadelphia Counties are tied for the most number of distinct Republican nominees who won those counties by over 100,000 votes (seven each), with Orange, CA in clear third at six, and DuPage, Nassau, Suffolk, and Harris each having given four separate GOP nominees a > 100,000-vote margin.
Orange, CA and Maricopa are tied for the most losing Republican nominees they have given a > 100,000-vote margin, at least for now, at three each. However, the only other counties that have given losing Republicans > 100,000-vote margins even so much as twice, both did so in 2020 (Utah, UT and Montgomery, TX).
There is overlap between Eisenhower and Nixon (e.g., Nassau, NY), between Nixon and Reagan (e.g., Oakland, MI), between Reagan and George W. Bush (e.g., Tarrant, TX), and--after 2020--even between George W. Bush and Trump (Utah, UT). The counties that losing postwar Republican nominees have carried by over 100,000 votes have also been carried by at least one victorious nominee of their party as well (e.g., Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan all carried Nassau, NY by over 100,000 votes [along with Dewey]; Nixon, Reagan, and George H. W. Bush all carried DuPage, IL by over 100,000 votes [along with Ford]; George W. Bush carried Utah, UT by over 100,000 votes [along with Romney and Trump in 2020]; and Trump in 2016 carried Montgomery, TX by over 100,000 votes [along with Romney]. [The cases of Orange, CA and Maricopa, AZ are fairly self-evident.])
There is even fairly ample overlap between Eisenhower and Reagan, and one instance of overlap between Eisenhower and George H. W. Bush (Suffolk, NY)--although there is none between Eisenhower and George W. Bush.
However, apart from Cook and LA Counties, none of the counties that gave Republicans > 100,000-vote margins prior to the New Deal, ever gave any Republican a > 100,000-vote margin after the New Deal. In fact, after 1928, Wayne County, MI never voted Republican again, and after 1932, Philadelphia County never voted Republican again (meaning, amongst other things, they both voted for McGovern).
Here are some of the largest raw-vote margins Republicans have won out of formerly Republican counties that have since either turned blue or permanently less red, but never gave a Republican a > 100,000-vote margin (the counties are coloured by how they voted in 2020):
Riverside, CA: 93,667 (Bush 2004) (57.83%-41.04%)
Ventura, CA: 84,833 (Reagan 1984) (68.67%-30.19%)
Waukesha, WI: 84,019 (Romney 2012) (66.8%-32.3%)
El Paso, CO: 83,713 (Bush 2004) (66.74%-32.1%)
Jefferson, LA: 82,814 (Reagan 1984) (74.7%-24.8%)
Essex, NJ: 81,906 (Eisenhower 1956) (60.5%-37.7%)
Montgomery, PA: 81,703 (Nixon 1972) (64.31%-34.06%)
Denton, TX: 81,545 (Bush 2004) (69.95%-29.47%)
Delaware, PA: 81,270 (Nixon 1972) (63.9%-34.3%)
Gwinnett, GA: 78,737 (Bush 2004) (65.66%-33.44%)
Union, NJ: 78,688 (Eisenhower 1956) (67.6%-31.2%)
Norfolk, MA: 76,091 (Eisenhower 1956) (66.4%-33.329%)
Fairfax, VA: 75,886 (Reagan 1984) (62.88%-36.83%)
Orange, FL: 73,316 (Reagan 1984) (71.39%-28.51%)
Hillsborough, FL: 71,696 (Reagan 1984) (64.67%-35.31%)
Kent, MI: 71,179 (Reagan 1984) (67.0%-32.3%)
Jefferson, CO: 70,796 (Reagan 1984) (68.9%-29.7%)
Palm Beach, FL: 70,720 (Reagan 1984) (61.67%-38.32%)
Cobb, GA: 69,015 (Bush 2004) (61.9%-37.1%)
Arapahoe, CO: 67,665 (Reagan 1984) (71.9%-26.7%)
Lake, IL: 64,454 (Reagan 1984) (68.4%-31.1%)
Johnson, KS: 63,968 (Reagan 1984) (72.4%-27.0%)
Santa Clara, CA: 62,053 (Reagan 1980) (48.02%-35.01%)
Jefferson, KY: 54,293 (Nixon 1972) (60.4%-37.4%)
Douglas, NE: 53,697 (Reagan 1984) (65.3%-34.2%)
Chester, PA: 53,351 (Reagan 1984) (70.1%-29.6%)
Hamilton, IN: 51,549 (Bush 2004) (74.2%-25.2%)
Forsyth, GA: 51,337 (Romney 2012) (80.5%-17.8%)
Knox, TN: 50,308 (Romney 2012) (63.6%-34.4%)
Anne Arundel, MD: 46,606 (Reagan 1984) (66.0%-33.4%)
Williamson, TN: 44,708 (Romney 2012) (72.6%-26.1%)
Henrico, VA: 44,116 (Nixon 1972) (84.9%-13.6%)
Mecklenburg, NC: 43,816 (Nixon 1972) (68.52%-29.80%)
Douglas, CO: 43,303 (Romney 2012) (62.1%-36.4%)
Chesterfield, VA: 41,157 (Reagan 1984) (79.8%-19.97%)
Placer, CA: 40,396 (Bush 2004) (62.6%-36.3%)
Williamson, TX: 40,167 (Bush 2004) (65.0%-33.6%)
East Baton Rouge, LA: 39,031 (Reagan 1984) (62.4%-37.0%)
Ada, ID: 38,276 (Reagan 1984) (72.4%-26.2%)
Santa Barbara, CA: 38,071 (Reagan 1984) (62.7%-36.0%)
Bernalillo, NM: 36,905 (Reagan 1984) (60.1%-38.9%)
Guilford, NC: 35,581 (Nixon 1972) (69.5%-29.2%)
Wake, NC: 34,001 (Nixon 1972) (70.32%-28.23%)
Pima, AZ: 32,245 (Reagan 1984) (56.90%-42.09%)
Caddo, LA: 32,039 (Goldwater 1964) (80.6%-19.4%)
Washington, OR: 31,275 (Reagan 1984) (62.8%-36.9%)
Washoe, NV: 28,097 (Reagan 1984) (67.7%-30.0%)
Ingham, MI: 27,888 (Eisenhower 1956) (66.8%-33.1%)
Delaware, OH: 26,095 (Bush 2004) (66.05%-33.62%)
Fort Bend, TX: 25,998 (Bush 2000) (59.6%-38.5%)
Larimer, CO: 25,987 (Reagan 1984) (66.65%-31.9%)
Forsyth, NC: 25,487 (Nixon 1972) (67.7%-30.5%)
Charleston, SC: 24,298 (Reagan 1984) (63.8%-35.0%)
Fayette, KY: 23,032 (Reagan 1984) (63.6%-35.4%)
Chatham, GA: 22,513 (Nixon 1972) (71.0%-29.0%)
Lancaster, NE: 20,683 (Hoover 1928) (75.2%-24.2%)
Prince William, VA: 20,456 (HW Bush 1988) (66.698%-32.3%)
Frederick, MD: 20,431 (Bush 2004) (59.6%-39.3%)
Washtenaw, MI: 19,797 (Eisenhower 1956) (66.9%-32.9%)
Montgomery, MD: 19,424 (Eisenhower 1952) (62.37%-37.03%)
Monterey, CA: 18,366 (Reagan 1980) (54.6%-33.5%)
Sonoma, CA: 17,930 (Eisenhower 1952) (66.1%-32.8%)
Marin, CA: 16,491 (Eisenhower 1956) (65.9%-33.8%)
Arlington, VA: 13,529 (Nixon 1972) (59.4%-39.0%)
Loudoun, VA: 13,111 (Bush 2004) (55.7%-43.6%)
Santa Cruz, CA: 12,817 (Eisenhower 1952) (67.1%-31.8%)
Boulder, CO: 12,276 (Reagan 1980) (46.7%-32.6%)
Gallatin, MT: 8,824 (Bush 2000) (58.8%-31.2%)
Nevada, CA: 8,611 (Reagan 1984) (62.4%-35.3%)
(In Cherokee County, Georgia, Trump's 2020 raw vote margin [56,806] is the largest ever won by a Republican.)
Most of those in which Romney holds the record for the largest Republican raw vote margin (Waukesha, Forsyth [GA], Williamson [TN], Douglas [CO]) are likely examples of what Michael Barone had in mind as 'edge counties' in 2001. Forsyth and Douglas are counties he explicitly cites as examples thereof. The third, Collin County, Texas, is one in which Bush in 2004 holds the record for the record-high Republican raw vote margin (and netted over 100,000 votes in the process). Romney, by far, holds the most of these records of any loser, but Bush in '04 was only narrowly winning nationally, in contrast to the holders of most of these records--landslide winners such as Eisenhower in 1952, Eisenhower in 1956, Nixon in 1972, and Reagan in 1984.
Of the Romney must-win counties, Reagan in 1984 holds the record in Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer, CO; Hillsborough, FL; Washoe, NV; and Chester, PA. Nixon in 1972 holds the record in Wake and Forsyth, NC; Hamilton, OH (the only one to actually ever have given a Republican a > 100,000-vote margin); and Henrico, VA. Rounding out the list, Bush Sr in '88 holds the record in Prince William, VA; and Bush in '04 holds the record in Loudoun, VA. (Reagan in '84 holds the record in Hillsborough, NH.)
Comments
Post a Comment