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These are major counties that voted for Trump twice, that voted for Romney in 2012, and whose last two losing votes prior to 2020 were for Republicans, but that Trump carried more weakly in 2020 than in 2016, and which Trump carried by a smaller margin than Bush carried Salt Lake County, Utah by in 2004 (the largest Bush margin in a major county that Obama carried in 2008). (Bush carried Salt Lake County by 22.03% in 2004.) Had Trump won reelection, these are counties that could potentially have been 'beachhead' counties for the Democratic nominee in 2024. (Their existence also shows that Trump did retain some suburban support in 2020, as Bush did in 2004.) Madison, AL (194,767) ( Huntsville ) 2016: 54.8%-38.5% 2020: 52.8%-44.8% Mobile, AL (183,164) ( Mobile ) 2016: 55.1%-41.8% 2020: 55.2%-43.3% Pinal, AZ (248,874) 2016: 56.2%-37.0% 2020: 57.7%-40.5% ( although Trump's 57.7% was the highest Republican vote share in Pinal since 1972 ) Kern, CA (305,226) ( Bakersfield ) 2016:...

These are the states where George Wallace came in first in at least one county: Alabama Arkansas Florida Georgia Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi Missouri North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas Virginia Outside these states, he came in second in these counties:  Dorchester, MD Kane, UT making these the states in which Wallace came in either first or second (or, put another way, beat at least one of the two major nominees) in at least one county. George Wallace carried one county in Missouri, Pemiscot, with a 37.71% plurality; Pemiscot cast 7,822 votes. In his second-best county in Missouri, New Madrid (which cast 9,496 votes), 31.42%. In Dorchester County, Maryland, which cast 10,114 votes, Wallace received 31.81%. Dorchester was Wallace's best county in Maryland. In Kane County, Utah, which cast 1,135 votes, Wallace received 15.33% to Humphrey's 12.95%, and it was not Wallace's best county in Utah (his best county was Washington County, where he got 15.92%, ...

ALABAMA Barbour Etowah Lee Limestone Macon Madison Marshall Montgomery Russell Shelby ARKANSAS Chicot Crittenden Ouachita FLORIDA Duval (203,979) Gadsden Hamilton Jefferson Lafayette GEORGIA Appling Atkinson Bacon Banks Barrow Bartow Berrien Bibb Bleckley Brooks Bryan Bulloch Burke Butts Camden Carroll Catoosa Charlton Chatham Chattahoochee Chattooga Cherokee Clay Clinch Colquitt Columbia Cook Coweta Crisp Dawson Decatur Dodge Dooly Elbert Evans Forsyth Franklin Glascock Gordon Habersham Hall Hancock Harris Hart Henry Houston Jackson Jeff Davis Jefferson Jenkins Johnson Jones Lamar Laurens Lee Lincoln Lumpkin Macon Madison Marion McDuffie Mitchell Monroe Morgan Murray Muscogee Newton Paulding Peach Pike Polk Seminole Stephens Stewart Sumter Talbot Taliaferro Taylor Telfair Terrell Thomas Tift Toombs Treutlen Troup Twiggs Union Upson Walker Washington Webster White Whitfield Wilcox Wilkes Worth INDIANA Adams Brown Crawford DeKalb Huntington Marion (315,095) Whitley KENTUCKY Adair Crit...

1. Los Angeles (2,411,014) (23.5% of total state vote) 2. San Diego (884,151) (8.6%) 3. Orange (864,576) (8.4%) 4. Santa Clara (523,291) (5.1%) 5. Alameda (462,044) (4.5%) 6. San Bernardino (413,355) (4.0%) 7. Sacramento (407,414) (4.0%) 8. Riverside (391,613) (3.8%) 9. Contra Costa (352,602) (3.4%) 10. San Francisco (290,385) (2.8%) 11. San Mateo (251,532) (2.5%) 12. Ventura (251,194) (2.5%) 13. Fresno (208,393) (2.0%) 14. Sonoma (181,297) (1.8%) 15. Kern (171,391) (1.7%) 16. Santa Barbara (150,745) (1.5%) 17. San Joaquin (145,140) (1.4%) 18. Solano (117,279) (1.1%) 19. Stanislaus (117,007) (1.1%) 20. Marin (116,140) (1.1%) 21. Monterey (108,558) (1.1%) 22. Santa Cruz (103,062) (1.0%) 23. San Luis Obispo (100,500) (0.9794%)

Here, we are including any county (whether in a swing state or not) of which the following characteristics were true: they voted for George W. Bush twice and against Bill Clinton at least once before voting for Obama in 2008, and they cast over 100,000 votes in 2008. Mitt Romney didn't win most of these counties, but how much did he narrow Obama's margin by? (Counties where Romney shrank Obama's margin at least 6% are in bold.) Jefferson, AL (-0.9%) (The minus means that the Democratic margin actually got bigger in 2012) San Diego, CA (2.6%) Riverside, CA (0.7%) Fresno, CA (0.3%) San Luis Obispo, CA (4.3%) Jefferson, CO (4.2%) Arapahoe, CO (3.0%) Larimer, CO (3.9%) Hillsborough, FL (0.4%) DuPage, IL (9.7%) Lake, IL (11.2%) Kane, IL (10.7%) McHenry, IL (14.1%) ( turnover ) Fayette, KY (3.8%) East Baton Rouge, LA (-3.0%) Kent, MI (8.1%) ( turnover ) Douglas, NE (7.7%) ( turnover ) Lancaster, NE (5.3%) ( turnover ) Washoe, NV (9.0%) Hillsborough, NH (2.6%) Rockingham,...

Suffolk County, New York (752,821) Macomb County, Michigan (494,256) Collin County, Texas (490,856) Denton County, Texas (417,964) Lee County, Florida (393,899)* El Paso County, Colorado (378,849) Monmouth County, New Jersey (378,390) Brevard County, Florida (360,764) Polk County, Florida (343,256)** Ocean County, New Jersey (342,746) Volusia County, Florida (307,439) Kern County, California (305,226) Pasco County, Florida (301,970) *Lee County is the largest county Trump carried in which his vote share increased from 2016. **Polk County is the largest county Trump carried in which his margin increased from 2016 (by 0.5%). Counties that Biden flipped, that would have been in Trump's top ten had he held them in 2020, include Maricopa, AZ (2,069,475), Pinellas, FL (559,715), Duval, FL (492,820), Johnson, KS (349,386), and Tarrant, TX (834,697). That said, Trump's two biggest counties voted for Obama in 2012, and in fact also voted for Gore. (Suffolk additionally voted for Kerry.)...

Very few counties changed hands in 2020 compared to previous elections. In Georgia, a turnover state, Trump was the only one to flip a county (the small county of Burke, GA). In Florida, even as Trump expanded his margin by over 2%, only Biden flipped any counties (and he flipped three, all casting over 100,000 votes).  Nationally, the election was close (about as close as 1948 in the popular vote), and yet Trump flipped only 15 counties. All but two cast fewer than 20,000 votes. In contrast, McCain flipped 44 counties in 2008, of which at least four (Washington, PA, Beaver, PA, Fayette, PA, and Pike, KY) cast over 20,000 votes--despite that he was losing nationally by a decisive margin. At the same time, Trump failed to improve very much on his 2016 vote share in many of the counties attracted to Trump's candidacy in 2016. In Luzerne, PA, Macomb, MI, Hillsborough, NH, Niagara, NY, and Suffolk, NY (to take some examples of counties Trump flipped in 2016 after they had voted for Oba...