Bush breakthrough counties

Albert J. Menendez wrote that 'JFK did not have any breakthrough counties where long-time Republican voters switched to his side.' A Bush breakthrough county, then, is a county where long-time Democratic voters switched to his side.

These are all counties that had either voted Democratic in all six of the elections prior to 2000 save (possibly) Reagan's 1984 landslide; or they had voted Democratic in the four straight previous elections (1984, 1988, 1992, 1996). In the former case, it could be said that they had shown a solid Democratic voting tendency over the prior 20 years that was strong enough to withstand Carter's 9.7% national defeat in 1980 and Dukakis' 7.7% national defeat in 1988, but not quite strong enough to withstand Mondale's 18.2% national defeat in 1984 (although some of them did). In the latter case, even though four elections in a row is usually not enough to consider a county having built up a reliable partisan voting reputation, these four elections would have included voting for Mondale in 1984 (as he lost by 18.2% nationally) and for Dukakis in 1988 (as he lost by 7.7% nationally); voting Democratic in the face of these headwinds would (arguably) make up for the relative brevity of the streak. 

In all these cases, a Democrat who was running competitively nationally in 2000 should have been carrying these counties. Mark Stricherz made this argument in his 2007 book Why the Democrats are Blue, using one of the larger counties on the below list, Westmoreland, PA, as well as the state of West Virginia as exemplary:

Consider Westmoreland County in Pennsylvania. Voters there stayed in the Democratic column in every presidential election from 1932 to 1996, except in 1972, and usually the Democrat won with more than 55 percent of the vote. West Virginia is another example. Save the Republican landslide years of 1972 and 1984, voters in this heavily white state went Democratic in every election from 1960 to 1996. But in 2000 and 2004, both Westmoreland County and West Virginia voted for the Republican candidate, George W. Bush.

The number of votes cast in 2000 and 2020 is given, as well as the subsequent voting history. Counties that cast a greater percentage of their state's vote than Marion County, Florida did in 2016 (~ 1.8545571%) are bolded. Counties that had last voted Republican in or before 1972 (or never) are italicised. (In sheer time terms, being the first Republican to carry a county in four or five elections might not seem that impressive.)

ALABAMA
Walker (25,641) (31,170) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Cherokee (7,823) (12,301) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

ARIZONA
Greenlee (2,960) (3,696) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

ARKANSAS
Conway (7,234) (8,685) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

GEORGIA
Greene (5,197) (11,247) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Crawford (3,567) (6,102) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Pulaski (3,346) (4,059) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marion (2,184) (3,624) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

IOWA
Dallas (19,330) (56,022) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Palo Alto (4,823) (4,958) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Davis (3,758) (4,102) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Monroe (3,647) (4,088) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ringgold (2,692) (2,714) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

KENTUCKY
McCracken (26,689) (33,549) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Greenup (14,663) (18,176) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Graves (14,231) (17,019) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marshall (13,761) (17,603) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marion (6,176) (8,928) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Henry (5,473) (5,843) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Magoffin (5,453) (5,447) (-Kerry '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Union (5,368) (6,577) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Webster (5,072) (5,993) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Bath (4,473) (5,627) (-Kerry '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Morgan (4,240) (5,544) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Livingston (4,230) (5,004) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
McLean (4,022) (4,782) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Carroll (3,499) (4,136) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lyon (3,420) (4,228) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Trimble (3,081) (4,320) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Carlisle (2,593) (2,638) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Gallatin (2,459) (3,849) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Wolfe (2,425) (2,979) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Menifee (2,249) (3,102) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hickman (2,124) (2,199) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(McCracken cast 1.73% of Kentucky's vote.)

LOUISIANA
Calcasieu (73,636) (82,663) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ascension (30,844) (62,325) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
St Martin (20,778) (27,038) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jefferson Davis (12,546) (14,840) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
DeSoto (10,596) (14,736) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
East Feliciana (8,099) (10,509) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Allen (8,292) (9,810) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
West Feliciana (4,860) (6,268) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Cameron (4,183) (3,939) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Ascension Parish cast 1.75% of Louisiana's vote.)

MICHIGAN
Delta (17,316) (21,167) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Alger (4,366) (5,135) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Keweenaw (1,343) (1,557) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

MINNESOTA
Dakota (182,249) (262,259) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)
Anoka (145,619) (211,132) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Washington (107,009) (166,786) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)
Chisago (21,987) (34,570) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Beltrami (17,217) (24,189) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Isanti (14,929) (24,235) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Mille Lacs (10,253) (14,689) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Koochiching (6,879) (6,922) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Kanabec (6,811) (9,242) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jackson (5,438) (5,819) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Clearwater (3,824) (4,708) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Norman (3,641) (3,441) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Red Lake (2,090) (2,196) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

MISSOURI
Dunklin (10,525) (10,419) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ralls (4,542) (5,662) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Howard (4,512) (5,092) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Iron (4,414) (4,592) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Oregon (4,233) (4,739) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Monroe (4,094) (4,483) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Shannon (3,781) (3,906) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Reynolds (3,131) (3,298) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

NORTH CAROLINA
Haywood (22,273) (36,542) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Duplin (14,390) (22,715) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Caswell (8,422) (12,051) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Swain (4,370) (7,068) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jones (3,964) (5,525) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hyde (2,237) (2,492) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

OKLAHOMA
Pittsburg (16,357) (17,924) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Bryan (11,746) (15,976) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
McCurtain (10,482) (11,467) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marshall (4,900) (6,064) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Pushmataha (4,348) (4,739) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Atoka (4,324) (5,389) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Johnston (3,930) (4,251) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Okfuskee (3,788) (4,038) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Love (3,372) (4,076) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jefferson (2,593) (2,385) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Coal (2,362) (2,524) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Harmon (1,205) (933) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

OREGON
Tillamook (12,376) (16,888) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

PENNSYLVANIA
Westmoreland (156,709) (204,697) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Armstrong (27,423) (36,370) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

TEXAS
Travis (301,263) (608,575) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)
Nueces (97,326) (127,322) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Galveston (92,983) (155,060) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Orange (29,654) (35,994) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
San Patricio (18,699) (25,891) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Bastrop (18,308) (36,665) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Navarro (13,890) (19,123) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jasper (11,742) (15,611) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Cass (11,019) (13,927) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Waller (10,858) (22,734) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Fannin (10,340) (15,007) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Caldwell (9,425) (14,973) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Kleberg (9,194) (10,944) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Trump '20)
Shelby (9,005) (10,087) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Milam (8,269) (10,578) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Titus (8,103) (10,541) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Tyler (7,116) (9,660) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Limestone (7,075) (9,095) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Burleson (5,866) (8,609) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Falls (5,715) (6,133) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Nolan (5,312) (5,357) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Trinity (5,297) (6,938) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Red River (5,202) (5,806) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Comanche (5,022) (6,086) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Sabine (4,591) (5,491) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marion (3,930) (4,864) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
San Augustine (3,805) (4,002) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Camp (3,784) (5,060) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Rains (3,333) (6,053) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Haskell (2,927) (2,214) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Swisher (2,501) (2,355) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Crosby (2,002) (1,953) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Baylor (1,984) (1,702) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Delta (1,900) (2,592) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Fisher (1,872) (1,826) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Knox (1,576) (1,456) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hardeman (1,557) (1,580) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Dickens (881) (988) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Stonewall (799) (736) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Cottle (757) (662) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Foard (556) (551) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Kent (536) (462) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Nueces County cast 1.52% of Texas' vote.)

VIRGINIA
Wise (13,310) (16,615) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lee (8,748) (9,946) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

WEST VIRGINIA
Monongalia (27,367) (42,072) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Raleigh (24,061) (33,106) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Wayne (16,241) (16,947) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marshall (13,498) (14,080) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hancock (13,472) (13,800) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Greenbrier (12,808) (15,850) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Randolph (9,542) (12,200) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Nicholas (8,579) (10,630) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Wetzel (6,288) (6,667) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Barbour (6,051) (6,677) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Taylor (5,712) (7,383) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Summers (4,713) (5,585) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Clay (3,582) (3,365) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Pocahontas (3,467) (4,008) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Tucker (3,346) (3,844) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Gilmer (2,740) (2,662) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Calhoun (2,615) (2,971) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

WISCONSIN
St Croix (29,954) (56,707) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Polk (19,762) (26,371) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Burnett (8,151) (10,141) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Forest (4,716) (5,053) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Iron (3,507) (4,010) (-Kerry '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(St Croix cast 1.15% of Wisconsin's vote.)

Bush 2004 breakthrough counties

(numbers of votes cast is in 2004 and 2020)

ALABAMA
Colbert (23,935) (27,886) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Jackson (20,321) (23,636) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lawrence (14,001) (16,031) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Marengo, AL (10,322) (10,900) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)

(Colbert cast 1.27% of Alabama's vote.)

ARKANSAS
Hot Spring (12,065) (12,557) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ashley (8,152) (7,926) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Nevada (3,477) (3,358) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Dallas (3,388) (2,649) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lafayette (3,191) (2,679) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Hot Spring cast 1.14% of Arkansas' vote.)

COLORADO
Huerfano (3,396) (4,406) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

GEORGIA
Peach (8,554) (12,553) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
McIntosh (5,382) (6,696) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Wilkinson (4,518) (4,770) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

ILLINOIS
Franklin (19,352) (18,626) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Gallatin (3,225) (2,674) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

INDIANA
Perry (8,315) (8,722) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

IOWA
Greene (5,113) (5,057) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

KENTUCKY
Boyd (21,777) (21,751) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Henderson (18,701) (20,697) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Muhlenberg (13,479) (14,231) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Perry (11,655) (10,626) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Harlan (11,070) (10,971) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Letcher (9,065) (9,135) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ballard (4,177) (4,225) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Fulton (2,890) (2,426) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Boyd cast 1.21% of Kentucky's vote.)

LOUISIANA
St Landry (36,760) (41,154) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
West Baton Rouge (10,835) (14,097) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Bienville (7,157) (7,050) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

MICHIGAN
Iron (6,511) (6,795) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

MINNESOTA
Aitkin (9,452) (10,025) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

MISSOURI
Boone (76,046) (91,168) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)
Buchanan (37,950) (36,598) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Ray (10,788) (11,649) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
New Madrid (7,907) (7,250) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Pemiscot (6,806) (5,735) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Mississippi (5,298) (4,756) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Buchanan cast 1.39% of Missouri's vote.)

NORTH CAROLINA
Columbus (21,191) (26,446) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Granville (18,601) (31,598) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Bladen (12,313) (17,125) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Martin (10,452) (12,540) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Tyrrell (1,590) (1,817) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

OKLAHOMA
Muskogee (27,709) (25,081) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Okmulgee (15,370) (14,313) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
McIntosh (9,180) (8,335) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Choctaw (5,807) (5,832) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hughes (5,349) (4,857) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Haskell (5,324) (5,014) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Latimer (4,480) (4,249) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

PENNSYLVANIA
Cambria (66,983) (70,574) (-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Mercer (51,564) (57,954) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lawrence (43,442) (46,076) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Greene (15,565) (17,669) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

(Cambria cast 1.16% of Pennsylvania's vote.)

TENNESSEE
Robertson (25,323) (33,717) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Franklin (17,077) (19,132) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Warren (14,400) (16,009) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Henry (13,177) (15,047) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Giles (11,537) (13,203) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Hickman (8,673) (9,832) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
DeKalb (7,173) (8,513) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Cannon (5,481) (6,557) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lewis (5,054) (5,609) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

TEXAS
Cameron (69,156) (114,174) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Biden '20)
Robertson (6,795) (8,099) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Newton (5,700) (6,094) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Morris (5,278) (5,587) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Frio (3,930) (5,279) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-HRC '16-Trump '20)

VIRGINIA
Russell (11,423) (13,386) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Caroline (9,954) (16,288) (-Obama '08-Obama '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Norton City (1,504) (1,601) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

WEST VIRGINIA
Kanawha (87,928) (82,244) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Harrison (30,588) (30,465) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Wyoming (8,718) (8,592) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
Lincoln (8,312) (7,830) (-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)

---

Honourable Mentions

Because of the magnitude of the Republican victories in 1980, 1984, and 1988, it is also worth mentioning counties that voted for Dukakis in 1988 (and for Bill Clinton twice), and that came very close to voting for Carter in 1980 and/or for Mondale in 1984, and that then went on to vote for Bush in 2000. (I wouldn't count counties fitting the above profile but that voted for Gore in 2000 and then for Bush in 2004, since Bush had already flipped more staunchly Democratic counties in 2000.) I will (somewhat arbitrarily) use 1%--or 2% and 100 raw votes--as a cutoff for 'very close'.

Coos, OR (29,379) (37,075) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.2%/55 votes in 1984
Warren, IA (19,653) (31,039) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.7%/106 votes in 1984
Barron, WI (19,904) (25,346) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.8%/137 votes in 1980
Tazewell, VA (16,344) (20,134) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.1%/18 votes in 1980
Kossuth, IA (8,878) (9,090) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.3%/34 votes in 1984
Nobles, MN (8,872) (8,715) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by < 0.1%/3 votes in 1980
Washburn, WI (8,045) (10,378) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.3%/21 votes in 1980
Carbon, UT (7,384) (9,369) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.1%/3 votes in 1980 and by 0.4%/36 votes in 1984
Murray, MN (4,753) (4,896) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.7%/39 votes in 1984
Lewis, MO (4,484) (4,609) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.8%/36 votes in 1980
Skamania, WA (4,249) (7,312) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 1.4%/43 votes in 1980
Decatur, IA (3,709) (3,804) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.1%/6 votes in 1984
Moody, SD (2,735) (3,206) (-Bush '04-Obama '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 1.5%/47 votes in 1984
Mitchell, TX (2,574) (2,579) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 0.3%/9 votes in 1980
Greer, OK (2,152) (1,973) (-Bush '04-McCain '08-Romney '12-Trump '16-Trump '20)
-voted for Reagan by 1.4%/43 votes in 1980

---

Bush's twenty largest breakthrough counties in 2000 in order of size:

1. Travis, TX (301,263)
2. Dakota, MN (182,249)
3. Westmoreland, PA (156,709) [3.19% of Pennsylvania total]
4. Anoka, MN (145,619) [5.97% of Minnesota total]
5. Washington, MN (107,009)
6. Nueces, TX (97,326) [1.52% of Texas total]
7. Galveston, TX (92,983)
8. Calcasieu, LA (73,636) [4.17% of Louisiana total]
9. Ascension, LA (30,844)
10. St Croix, WI (29,954) [1.15% of Wisconsin total]
11. Orange, TX (29,654)
12. Armstrong, PA (27,423)
13. Monongalia, WV (27,367)
14. McCracken, KY (26,689) [1.73% of Kentucky total]
15. Walker, AL (25,641)
16. Raleigh, WV (24,061) [3.71% of West Virginia total]
17. Haywood, NC (22,273) [0.77% of North Carolina total]
18. Chisago, MN (21,987)
19. St Martin, LA (20,778)
20. Polk, WI (19,762)

---

Chuck Todd gave Trump some 'credit' for outperforming his 2016 margin in 2020 in Columbus County, NC (which had given Carter his third largest raw vote margin in North Carolina in 1976, ahead of Orange, Buncombe, and Durham). But it was George W. Bush who was the first Republican to carry Columbus County (in 2004) since 1984 (and the second since 1972). Westmoreland County was another Bush breakthrough county that received some attention in the Trump years. In 2018, Margaret Power wrote an article focussed on Westmoreland County's relationship with Trump. In it, she asks, 'When and why Westmoreland County switched from a Democratic Party bastion to a Republican stronghold.' However, she does not mention George W. Bush (the nominee at the top of the Republican ticket when the party actually did make the switch she mentions) once, except in her factual recounting of the county's voting record: 

In 1932 Westmoreland County voted Democrat in the presidential elections, according to records in the Westmoreland County Court House, and continued doing so until the 2000 George W. Bush vs. Al Gore election, albeit at a declining rate and with the exception of the 1972 election of Richard Nixon, who captured a majority of votes there.

In her more analytic section, she does reference Reagan, pointing out that Reagan's 'fallacy about poor people...and welfare' 'resonates particularly well in Westmoreland County', even though Westmoreland County voted for Carter in 1980 and for Mondale in 1984. There is no mention of Bush.

When, in 2012, Nate Cohn wrote that

Throughout the Bush years, Orange County, FL, Franklin County, Ohio, and Bucks County, PA ascended to national preeminence as the closest counties in the closest states in the 2000 election. In 2008, the diverse and well-educated new coalition counties, like Arapahoe, CO, Fairfax, VA, Wake, NC stole the show.

There is a non-parallelism between the counties he names as having become pre-eminent in the Bush years, and the counties he names as having become pre-eminent in the Obama years. The latter were historically red counties that were critical to Obama's success in 2008. The former were then-historically red counties that Bush should have won in 2000, and that it was, or should have been, surprising that he didn't win. In other words, they would have had a similar relationship to Bush as Fort Bend, TX, Cobb, GA, and Orange, CA had to Trump, as described by David Jarman in May 2017:

If you’d told me before the 2016 election that the Democratic candidate was going to finally win Orange County, California (the most legendary Republican stronghold of all), as well as Fort Bend County, Texas, and Cobb County, Georgia (the suburbs that gave us Tom DeLay and Newt Gingrich, respectively), it would have been safe to assume that would be part of a crushing Democratic victory, something on the order of LBJ vs. Goldwater.

On the other hand, if you’d told me that the Republican candidate was going to win places like Kenosha County, Wisconsin, Trumbull County, Ohio, or Monroe County, Michigan (bastions of organized labor that kept the Democratic faith over the decades, even during their 1980s low-water mark), that would have sounded like a catastrophic Dem wipeout, probably wore than Walter Mondale’s benchmark of futility.

But if you’d told me that both things would happen in the same election, if I hadn’t slowly and cautiously backed out of the room, I might have assumed you were talking about a distant future election, one that exaggerated trends we were only starting to see...

Except that Jarman also gives three counties that Trump surprisingly won. (Or two counties--Monroe, MI is an odd inclusion, as discussed here, but there are any number of more apropos counties Jarman could have picked to round out his second threesome, such as Saginaw, MI, Erie, PA, Niagara, NY, or Jefferson, TX.)

In other words, there was a lack of appreciation of Bush's breakthrough counties, especially compared to Trump's breakthrough counties.

There are two Bush breakthrough counties in particular that might have been considered pre-eminint in the Bush years (in a similar way as Kenosha and Trumbull in the Trump years): Westmoreland, PA and Anoka, MN. As we've seen, long before Trump, in 2007, Mark Stricherz was noting the dramatic political transformation Bush had wrought in Westmoreland County. As for Anoka County, it was one of only two Bush (2000) breakthrough counties (along with Westmoreland), outside the state of Texas, casting over 100,000 votes, that has stayed red to the present. Of course, there was no way of knowing that at the time, and there were two other major Bush breakthrough counties in the Twin Cities area that have returned to the Democracy after 2004. However, Anoka does seem to have commanded some disproportionate attention in the Bush years (even before the 2004 election, when it swung towards Bush much more than its two large neighbours). In fact, ahead of the 2004 election, Ron Fournier wrote that 'Anoka County is THE swing county in this swing state.' Similarly, Tom Scheck wrote that Anoka was 'a key swing county in what both Republicans and Democrats see as a key swing state. While Al Gore narrowly won in Minnesota four years ago, George W. Bush narrowly won in Anoka County.' And the Washington Post, in its 'Electoral College Analysis: Minnesota' for 2004, wrote that 

Bush came within two points of winning in 2000, and the key for him is to put together a strong vote in the suburbs of the Twin Cities, capture exurban bellwether Anoka County, and, by playing on the God, gays and guns trilogy, bring in a solid vote in the rural northwest part of the state.

--naming only Anoka County by name. 

In part, this may have been because of Anoka County's unique background. The Washington Post simply calls it 'exurban', but it appears to have had a particular reputation as a Democratic stronghold--and also as a stronghold of the movement that brought Jesse Ventura to the governor's office. (It is worth noting that Anoka voted for Mondale in 1984, whereas Washington and Dakota voted for Reagan--which means that, while the latter two were still historically far more Democratic than the nation prior to 2000, a Democrat had won Minnesota in recent times without them; not so of Anoka. Furthermore, Anoka was easily the Democrats' fourth-largest vote trove in Minnesota, after Ramsey, Hennepin, and St Louis, in 1976, 1980, 1988, and 1992 [and, less easily, in 1996], despite Dakota casting more votes in all those elections.)

For example, Ron Fournier elaborates on Anoka County:

The fourth largest of seven counties in the critical Twin Cities metro area, its voters were instrumental in putting Jesse Ventura in the governor's chair in 1998. Anoka was once a lunch-bucket, blue-collar Democratic stronghold, and if it votes Bush it could help put the state in his 'W' column.

In another article ahead of the 2004 election, The Economist wrote that 

Once a Democratic stronghold, Anoka County became the heart of “Ventura country”: it rallied to Jesse Ventura, the wrestler who became governor in 1998 on a Reform (later to be Independence) Party ticket that offered low taxes and social tolerance.

And in October 2004, Caroline Daniel wrote,

Anoka used to be democrat, blue-collar, suburbs - Garrison Keillor, the radio host, and recent author of Homegrown Democrat, a love letter to liberalism, was born here.

Most of this is in the past tense, and Daniel does note that Anoka 'is home to the headquarters of Medtronic, a $63bn medical products company, has a 30 per cent higher average income and grew at double the rate of the rest of the state.' This may explain why, unlike Westmoreland, Anoka, while it has remained red, has not gotten any redder since 2004. (In 2020, despite Anoka being the biggest county he carried in the state, Trump failed to net even 5,000 votes out of the county.) But Tom Scheck wrote that Charlie Weaver, a former Republican state representative from Anoka County, 'says [Anoka County] voters look for someone who can relate to their working class background'. (And as of February 2018, Anoka County still had no Whole Foods.)

Anoka County could even boast of having sent a Congressperson to Washington who had already in the Bush years become fairly outstanding: Michele Bachmann. 

---

That said, it is true, I think, that the Bush breakthrough counties were less of a kind than the Trump breakthrough counties. Much as Obama's largest county flips in the swing states in 2008 tended to share a family resemblance (hence giving analysts a discrete group of counties to zero in on in 2012 as counties critical for Romney to win), Trump tended to flip at least one of a certain kind of county in almost every swing state he carried in 2016 (as well as in a number of other states). This kind of county was not necessarily Trump's largest county flip in a given state (in fact, it usually wasn't), but he consistently flipped an anomalously large county that had theretofore remained loyally Democratic since at least 1988. These counties generally cast at least 1% of the state's vote (or close to it) in the large states (14+ EVs), and over 2% in the small or mid-sized states. In the large states, most came close to casting 100,000 votes (one cast over this number). In states where Trump also flipped a number of rural counties that had thitherto been loyally Democratic since at least 1988 (in particular, Iowa and Wisconsin), the county in question stood significantly apart from any of these others in terms of number of votes cast:

Pueblo, CO (78,646) (2.83% of CO total) (last GOP vote: 1972) (-Biden '20)
Dubuque, IA (49,721) (3.17% of IA total) (last GOP vote: 1956) (-Trump '20)
Saginaw, MI (94,320) (1.96% of MI total) (last GOP vote: 1984) (-Biden '20)
Niagara, NY (91,801) (1.19% of NY total) (last GOP vote: 1984) (-Trump '20)
Robeson, NC (40,858) (0.86% of NC total) (last GOP vote: 1972) (-Trump '20)
Trumbull, OH (96,676) (1.75% of OH total) (last GOP vote: 1972) (-Trump '20)
Erie, PA (123,679) (2.01% of PA total) (last GOP vote: 1984) (-Biden '20)
Jefferson, TX (87,618) (0.98% of TX total) (last GOP vote: 1972) (-Trump '20)
Kenosha, WI (76,304) (2.56% of WI total) (last GOP vote: 1972) (-Trump '20)

(For some more context on how much of a proportion of a state's vote, or population, a county should cast or constitute in order to be considered significant, John King mentioned in 2016 that Marion County, FL was 'not insignificant; just shy of 2% of the state population'. I can't make out the exact figure on the screen [he later says it's 1.8%]; the county ended up casting 1.85% of Florida's total vote in 2016. The counties on the above list that cast as great a proportion of their state's vote as, or a greater proportion of their state's vote than, Marion did of Florida's, are bolded, although counties casting a smaller proportion of their state's vote were still seen as important.)

In the mega-states of Ohio and Michigan, there was an additional Trump breakthrough county that, while significantly smaller than the largest ones in their states, cast more vote than Robeson (and, in the case of the one in Michigan, still cast just over 1% of the state's total vote):

Bay, MI (52,977) (1.10% of MI total) (last GOP vote: 1984) (-Trump '20)
Ashtabula, OH (41,180) (0.74% of OH total) (last GOP vote: 1984) (-Trump '20)

Even if they weren't enumerated anywhere as such as explicitly as the Romney must-win counties in 2012 (except perhaps by Jud Lounsbury), these counties gave analysts an easily-recognisable group of similar counties across the battleground states (that Trump had flipped in 2016) to focus on in 2020, which they did. (For example, Chuck Todd on Robeson County, Todd on Dubuque County, Bill Hemmer on Kenosha County. After the election, Dave Wasserman singled out Saginaw, MI and Erie, PA as exemplifying Biden's unique ability to reclaim 'Cracker Barrel counties'; and Michael Kruse wrote that 'Over the past four-plus years, Robeson County attracted its fair share of attention as a gauge of rural America’s Trump-torqued shifting political allegiances from Democrat to Republican.') Already on election night 2016, Hemmer was pointing to Trump's performance in Trumbull County, and John King, to Trump's performance in Erie County, PA, to illustrate why Trump was doing unexpectedly well in those states in that election. In a great many states (including most of those he flipped in 2016), Trump could be said to have won the last remaining large(-ish) (but non-'big city') New Deal or belated New Deal county (or counties) with an 'Anglo-American electorate'.

In contrast, Bush's largest breakthrough counties (in 2000) were concentrated in Minnesota and Bush's home state of Texas. Most battleground states (and most states full stop) didn't have one of any particularly great size. Furthermore, most of the very largest Bush breakthrough counties have gone back to being blue, and have done so for reasons that could probably have been foreseen in 2000 (i.e., they would not have seemed, in 2000, to have shared a family resemblance with Anoka and Westmoreland). For example, in arguing that Washington County, MN was the critical county for Minnesota in the 2020 election, Reid Wilson quoted Tim Pawlenty as saying that 'President Trump has already transformed rural politics in his favor, so increasing support from suburban voters will be key to the outcome of the election.' In the summer of 2016, Robert David Sullivan explicitly described the pattern of Bush's appeal in Minnesota as an anomaly relative to his appeal elsewhere:

Many of the new (or renewed) Republican counties were well outside their states’ biggest and fastest-growing population centers, foreshadowing the party’s growing appeal in “left behind” counties...One exception to this rule: Minnesota, where George W. Bush picked up several fast-growing counties near Minneapolis (but not by enough to win the state). 

And little comment is needed on Travis County, Texas, home of Austin, which didn't even wait for the end of the Bush era to return to the Democratic fold.

Once one gets past the large(-ish) Bush breakthrough counties in Minnesota and Texas (and Westmoreland, PA), the counties become too small to really reasonably stand with Anoka and Westmoreland. For example, St Croix County, Wisconsin, which was the tenth-largest Bush breakthrough county nationally in 2000, was described as 'rural' in 2020 by Joe Kelly (along with larger Marathon County):

Trump retained his base of support in the more rural northern and central parts of the state, even gaining more votes this go-round in counties like Marathon, Waupaca and St. Croix.

Calcasieu Parish, LA--Bush's eighth-largest 2000 breakthrough county, and over twice as large as the ninth-largest--is a possibility; and apparently, it did catch at least one person's eye in the Bush years; in 2004, the Louisiana Democratic Party state chairman Mike Skinner 'said that if Kerry carries Calcasieu Parish, on the border with Texas, he will carry the state'. But Calcasieu is less of a kind with Anoka and Westmoreland than, say, Trumbull and Kenosha are with one another. And its geographic oddity, relative to Westmoreland and Anoka, may well have drawn attention to the lack of any such large counties in other Frost Belt/Midwestern swing states, such as Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. (Conversely, in Trump's case, there were counties of a similar profile in every Frost Belt swing state he carried in 2016--although not, perhaps, in Minnesota [Rice County, the largest Trump breakthrough county in the state, did cast a little over 1% of the state's vote, but cast fewer than 40,000 votes and in general seems to have received very little attention, with this local 2016 story characterising it simply as exemplary of 'rural America'].)

In fact, Calcasieu Parish does share a similar profile with two other Bush breakthrough counties--McCracken, KY and Nueces, TX (and Robeson, NC, a rare decently-sized Trump breakthrough county in the South)--as having played a significant role in Carter's Southern victories in 1976 (when Carter nearly swept the region but, unlike in the old Solid South days, with minimal or no help from many of the region's large metropolitan counties). McCracken (the largest county in the Jackson Purchase, which Lon Carter Barton described in 1992 as having been known as the 'Gibraltar of Democracy' and as having 'remained strongly Democratic into the 1990s') gave Carter his biggest raw vote margin in Kentucky in 1976, as he won the state despite losing Jefferson, Fayette, and Kenton Counties. Calcasieu gave Carter his second-largest raw vote margin in Louisiana, behind much-larger Orleans Parish (which Carter won by a much weaker proportional and raw-vote margin than Democrats in the Solid South period), as Carter won the state despite losing Jefferson, East Baton Rouge, and Caddo Parishes. And Nueces County gave Carter his second-largest raw vote margin in Texas (behind the significantly-larger then-swing county of Bexar) as he won the state despite losing Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant Counties. (And Robeson gave Carter his largest raw vote margin in North Carolina as he carried the state despite losing Wake County, and carrying each of Mecklenburg, Guilford, and Forsyth by less than 2%.)

(In addition, Colbert County, Alabama gave Carter his largest raw vote margin in Alabama in 1980, when he came within 1.30% of carrying the state despite losing Jefferson and Montgomery Counties, the largest and third-largest counties in the state [and both currently Democratic strongholds]. In Carter's best raw vote margin county in Alabama in 1976 [when he also lost Jefferson and Montgomery Counties], Etowah, Bush was the first Republican to win a majority in 2000 since 1972, but it had given very narrow pluralities to Reagan in 1984 and George H. W. Bush in 1988.)

But in this sense, Calcasieu would help underscore the phenomenon of Bush becoming the first Republican to sweep the South 'in a competitive race', which, for one thing, would have been distinct from what Anoka and Westmoreland were illustrating, and, for another, had--justifiably or not--come to seem unsurprising and even a bare minimum for Bush by election day 2000. Bill Clinton carried Louisiana and Kentucky twice, but by election day, their going for Bush had become a foregone conclusion. When Kentucky was a poll-closing call for Bush, Bill Schneider said, 'Clinton carried it by the narrowest margin of any state he carried in 1996, so if George Bush was going to win, he had to take Kentucky'--but he was nonchalant when, later that evening, Nevada (Clinton's second-closest state in 1996, and only trivially less close than Kentucky that year) was too close to call. 

There may be good reason that the lack of surprise at Bush sweeping the trans-Potomac South (aside perhaps from West Virginia) was unjustified. In 2019, Karl Rove mentioned that part of Bush's 2000 strategy was to win 'four historically Democrat[ic] border states that had voted for Clinton-Gore twice: Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.' As late as a few days after election day, 2012, Nate Cohn was describing Kentucky as having been merely 'lean-Republican':

In the Electoral College system, turning "lean Republican" states like Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Missouri into "solid Republican" states just doesn't matter.

And on election night, Peter Jennings describes Louisiana as 'probably the most contested state in the South in this cycle' (he means, presumably, aside from Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, and West Virginia).

Of course, there was no doubt about how Texas would go in 2000, but it's worth noting that, as late as 1996, Bill Clinton did still hope to carry Texas. And there is very little mention of Nueces County, at least that I've been able to find, in the Bush era, but it has in common with Westmoreland, PA, Anoka, MN, and Calcasieu, LA that it had given Democrats raw-vote margins greater than 1/6 of 0.1% of the national vote on multiple occasions in the postwar period. (It was in Bush's home state, of course, but Obama's favourite-son status in Illinois didn't stop John Patterson giving him 'credit' for flipping historically red DuPage County in 2008, nor did Trump's favourite-son status in New York stop David Freedlander giving him 'credit' for flipping by-then somewhat-historically-blue Suffolk County in 2016.)

---

Mark Stricherz essentially uses the state of West Virginia and Westmoreland County to make the point, vis-à-vis Bush, that Jarman uses Trumbull and Kenosha Counties to make vis-à-vis Trump. This might indicate a clue as to the different emphases of Bush's and Trump's incursions into traditionally Democratic territory. Bush's appears to have been more rural. Trump's appears to have been more focussed on relatively populated industrial centres. The Democrats' 'white rural problem' and their 'Rust Belt problem' are related (Bush did, after all, flip Westmoreland and Anoka in 2000, and Macomb and Cambria in 2004), but are not the same thing, and the former arguably dates back to 2000. 

A transformation of rural politics doesn't lend itself as much to the identification of specific discrete counties. On election night 2000, Hal Bruno did point out the 'surprise' that  

up here in the northwest [of Wisconsin], which normally is Democratic territory, up there, George Bush is doing better than anyone ever expected he would do. 

St Croix County was the largest, but by no means the sole or even dominant, Bush breakthrough county in that part of Wisconsin in 2000. (Neighbouring Polk County made the top twenty list of Bush's 2000 breakthrough counties.)

Another county that caught the attention of some political scientists in the Bush years was Elko County, NV--not a Bush breakthrough county, but a Bush country county (a county in which he got over 60% of the vote and a better vote share than Reagan in 1984 or any subsequent nominee--in this case, in both 2000 and 2004). In 2007, Robert D. Loevy et al. noted that Elko was the 'one other county' outside the Reno area that 'produces significant vote margins for the Republican Party', further noting that Bush's 8,888-vote margin in the county in '04 was 'the highest Republican vote margin for any county in Nevada in [2004]'. However, the county cast only 14,180 votes in 2000, and only 15,309 in 2004, so, hardly a candidate as an epitome of a new national coalition (although it did happen to account for a non-trivial percentage of the vote in a surprisingly competitive state).

It might have made more sense to identify particular intra-state regions that had tended to be strongly Democratic (such as the Jackson Purchase, Imperial Calcasieu, Missouri's Lead Belt, Boonslick Country, and Lincoln Hills, and, as with Hal Bruno, northwest Wisconsin). West Virginia is something of a 'region-state', a state that, if it were part of another state (as it once was), could well be seen as a distinct region within that state (perhaps known as 'West Augusta').

Concomitantly, another thing that might have done more to drive home Bush's transformation of the electoral map is simply a visual comparison of the acreage coloured in the different parties' colours in 2000 compared with prior elections. In 2016, both Bill Hemmer and Steve Kornacki drew attention to simply the difference in the sheer acreage of Wisconsin and Michigan that was coloured in blue in 2016 vs. in 2012 (Hemmer in Michigan, Hemmer in Wisconsin, Kornacki in Michigan, Kornacki in Wisconsin, John King in Wisconsin).

In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried eight counties in Michigan vs. Obama's 20 in 2012 (or 40% as many), and 12 in Wisconsin vs. Obama's 35 in 2012 (or 34.3% as many). Of course, a comparison between 2000 and 1996 might not be that impressive given that it was widely acknowledged ahead of time that Dole had lost badly and that Bush would run well ahead of him, whether he won or not (although, on the other hand, comparing county maps between 2016 and 2012 might be an implicit admission that 2012 was, in fact, a close election--or else comparing with 2012 would not be that meaningful).

What might have been more meaningful in 2000 might have been a comparison with 1988, which at the time was only three elections prior. ('Dukakis states' was also a common reference around the time of the 2000 election.) Gore carried significantly fewer counties than Dukakis in a number of states in 2000: he carried 40.5% as many counties as Dukakis in Kentucky, 38.8% as many counties as Dukakis in Missouri, 18.6% as many in Iowa, and 37.0% as many in Minnesota--all, except for Kentucky, smaller proportions than the proportion of Obama '12 counties in Michigan that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 (and Gore's proportion in Kentucky is only slightly larger). Even in West Virginia (where Gore carried 41.9% as many counties as Dukakis) and Louisiana (where Gore carried 58.3% as many counties as Dukakis) might have made an impact (especially considering that Dukakis, unlike Clinton in '96 or Obama in '12, was losing, and fairly badly).