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Philadelphia, PA (892,750) (1.96% of nat'l vote) Erie, NY (342,208) (0.75% of nat'l vote) Essex, NJ (319,441) (0.70% of nat'l vote) Essex, MA (222,999) (0.49% of nat'l vote) Worcester, MA (210,764) (0.46% of nat'l vote) Monroe, NY (210,523) (0.46% of nat'l vote) Bergen, NJ (181,878) (0.40% of nat'l vote) Hartford, CT (176,318) (0.39% of nat'l vote) Fairfield, CT (163,263) (0.36% of nat'l vote) Franklin, OH (158,047) (0.35% of nat'l vote) Union, NJ (132,097) (0.29% of nat'l vote) Camden, NJ (123,742)   Stark, OH (96,612) (0.21% of nat'l vote) Mahoning, OH (90,858) (0.1990% of nat'l vote) New Castle, DE (85,766) Kent, MI (85,304) Dauphin, PA (83,500) Polk, IA (79,460) Mercer, NJ (77,534) Rensselaer, NY (68,621) (0.15% of nat'l vote) Atlantic, NJ (64,688) Schenectady, NY (59,407) Winnebago, IL (53,989) Blair, PA (52,597) Trumbull, OH (50,329) Bucks, PA (48,895) New London, CT (47,703) Burlington, NJ ...

1908 Parker '04 - Taft '08 (anti-trend): 61 in 14 states . 1. Baltimore City, MD (103,423) 2. Suffolk, MA (95,539) 3. Hudson, NJ (85,796) 4. Jefferson, KY (54,700) Roosevelt '04 - Bryan '08 : 219 in 24 states . 1. Denver, CO (65,707) 2. Jackson, MO (59,760) 3. Montgomery, OH (42,615) 4. York, PA (30,771) 5. Douglas, NE (30,713) 6. Northampton, PA (23,145) 7. Allen, IN (22,513) 8. Vigo, IN (22,342) 9. Buchanan, MO (18,513) 10. Wyandotte, KS (18,259) 11. Madison, IN (17,204) 12. Lancaster, NE (16,453) 13. Adams, IL (16,314) 14. Pueblo, CO (15,937) 15. Kenton, KY (15,777) 16. Licking, OH (15,166) 17. Tuscarawas, OH (14,205) 18. Allen, OH (13,557) 19. Richland, OH (12,326) 20. Dubuque, IA (11,855) 21. Macoupin, IL (11,664) 22. Boulder, CO (11,629) 23. Darke, OH (11,623) 24. Washington, OH (11,607) 25. Seneca, OH (11,512) 26. Hancock, OH (10,781) 27. Cass, IN (10,344) 28. Wayne, OH (10,084) Data missing for Texas, but in 1916, only Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Tarrant Countie...

Roosevelt '04 - Bryan '08 Arkansas: 8 California: 4 Colorado: 25 (including Denver) Georgia: 2 Idaho: 3 Illinois: 16 Indiana: 28 Iowa: 11 Kansas: 9 Kentucky: 4 Maryland: 3 Minnesota: 4 Missouri: 11 (including Jackson) Montana: 5 Nebraska: 45 Nevada: 6 Ohio: 15 Pennsylvania: 5 South Dakota: 2 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 6 (including El Paso) Virginia: 2 West Virginia: 1 Wisconsin: 3 Parker '04 - Taft '08   Alabama: 5 Arkansas: 5 Florida: 1 Georgia: 16 Kentucky: 3 (including Jefferson) Maryland: 2 (including Baltimore City) Massachusetts: Suffolk Missouri: 1 New Jersey: Hudson North Carolina: 16 Tennessee: 1 Texas: 4 Virginia: 2 West Virginia: 3  --- Bryan '00 - Roosevelt '04 Alabama: 1 Arkansas: 9 California: 15 Colorado: 32 Georgia: 6 Idaho: 12 Illinois: 24 Indiana: 22 Iowa: 6 Kansas: 22 Kentucky: 2 (including Kenton) Maine: 1 Michigan: 1 Minnesota: 4 Missouri: 26 Montana: 11 Nebraska: 35 Nevada: 14 North Carolina: 2 Ohio: 11 Oregon: 5 Pennsylvania: 7 South Dakota: 7 Te...

Davis '24 - Hoover '28 Alabama: 22 (including Jefferson) Arizona: Gila  Arkansas: 7 Colorado: 2 Delaware: Kent Florida: 37 (including Hillsborough, Duval, and Dade) Georgia: 18 Illinois: 9 Indiana: 14 Kentucky: 38 Maryland: 10 (including Baltimore County) Mississippi: 3 Missouri: 28 Nebraska: 1 Nevada: 1 New Mexico: 10 North Carolina: 42 (including Mecklenburg, Forsyth, Guilford, and Buncombe) Ohio: 6 Oklahoma: 37 Pennsylvania: 4 Tennessee: 6 (including Davidson) Texas: 126 (including Dallas, Harris, and Tarrant) Virginia: 54 (including Richmond City) West Virginia: 14 Total: 491 Coolidge '24 - Smith '28 California: San Francisco  Colorado: 8 Connecticut: New Haven Idaho: Fremont Illinois: 7 Iowa: 4 Kansas: Ellis Louisiana: Assumption Massachusetts: 4 Minnesota: 3 Missouri: 3 Montana: 2 Nebraska: 6 Nevada: 2 New Hampshire: Hillsborough New York: 9 North Dakota: 5 Pennsylvania: 3 (including Lackawanna) Rhode Island: 2 South Dakota: 1 Texas: Guadalupe, Kinney  Utah: 2 Ver...

Cox '20 - Coolidge '24 Florida: Pinellas  Indiana: 4 Kentucky: 5 Maryland: Cecil Michigan: Manistee Missouri: 1 New Mexico: 1 North Carolina: 1  Ohio: 3 Texas: 10 Total: 28 Harding '20 - Davis '24 Alabama: 3 Arizona: Gila, Santa Cruz Arkansas: 8  Colorado: La Plata, Montezuma Florida: Broward, Osceola Georgia: 14 Illinois: 9 Indiana: 11 Kentucky: 3 Louisiana: 13 Maryland: 5 Missouri: 19 Nebraska: 5 Nevada: Ormsby New Jersey: Hudson New Mexico: 3 North Carolina: 8 Ohio: 3 Oklahoma: 24 Pennsylvania: Fulton Tennessee: 10 Texas: 15  Virginia: 13 West Virginia: 11 Total: 185 Cox '20 - La Follette '24 Montana: Mineral  Nevada: Clark Total: 2 Harding '20 - La Follette '24   California: 14 Colorado: Dolores Idaho: 10 Illinois: Clinton Iowa: 7 Minnesota: 40 Montana: 18 Nebraska: 8 Nevada: 7 North Dakota: 32 South Dakota: 18 Texas: Gillespie Washington: 5 Wisconsin: 61 Wyoming: Sweetwater Total: 224

Arkansas: Benton, Madison California: Imperial, Inyo, Mono, San Benito, Sutter Colorado: Alamosa, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Mineral, Ouray, Pitkin, Summit, Teller Connecticut: Fairfield, Tolland Delaware: Sussex Georgia: Pickens Idaho: Boundary, Butte, Cassia, Latah, Lemhi, Minidoka, Owyhee, Valley, Washington Illinois: Alexander, Coles, Effingham, LaSalle, Moultrie, Peoria, Saline, Schuyler, Shelby, Wabash, White, Williamson Indiana: Bartholomew, Cass, Crawford, Dearborn, Gibson, Hancock, Harrison, Howard, Jackson, Jay, Ohio, Posey, Putnam, Shelby, Vermillion, Washington, Wells Iowa: Carroll, Dallas, Emmet, Fremont Kansas: Cherokee, Crawford, Sedgwick Kentucky: Bell, Breckinridge, Fleming, Garrard, Lawrence, Magoffin, Washington Maine: Kennebec Maryland: Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Calvert, Caroline, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, St Mary's, Somerset, Washington, Worcester Michigan: Menominee, Presque Isle Minnesota: Murray, Wilkin Missouri: Cass, Cole, Greene, Knox, Maco...

In 2020, red counties in which Joe Biden's vote share was lower than Hillary Clinton's were relatively rare. (There were a conspicuous number of large blue counties [and some small blue counties] where the Democratic vote share went down in 2020, as alluded to here ; these include Los Angeles and Santa Clara Counties, CA; Broward, Dade, Palm Beach, and Osceola Counties, FL; Lake County, IN; Hudson County, NJ; The Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, and Rockland County, NY; Philadelphia County, PA; and Cameron, El Paso, and Hidalgo Counties, TX. Some smaller ones include Imperial, CA; Jasper, SC; Santa Cruz, AZ; and of course, most, although not all, of the counties Trump flipped in 2020.) Of course, much of this could be attributed to the shrinkage of the third-party vote in 2020, and indeed, was. As Savannah Guthrie summarises Chuck Todd's half-stated implications on election night, 'You're saying if there was a third-party vote that drew votes from Clinton in 201...