1936 turnover counties casting between 10,000 and 100,000 votes

  1. Philadelphia, PA (892,750) (1.96% of nat'l vote)
  2. Erie, NY (342,208) (0.75% of nat'l vote)
  3. Essex, NJ (319,441) (0.70% of nat'l vote)
  4. Essex, MA (222,999) (0.49% of nat'l vote)
  5. Worcester, MA (210,764) (0.46% of nat'l vote)
  6. Monroe, NY (210,523) (0.46% of nat'l vote)
  7. Bergen, NJ (181,878) (0.40% of nat'l vote)
  8. Hartford, CT (176,318) (0.39% of nat'l vote)
  9. Fairfield, CT (163,263) (0.36% of nat'l vote)
  10. Franklin, OH (158,047) (0.35% of nat'l vote)
  11. Union, NJ (132,097) (0.29% of nat'l vote)
  12. Camden, NJ (123,742) 
  13. Stark, OH (96,612) (0.21% of nat'l vote)
  14. Mahoning, OH (90,858) (0.1990% of nat'l vote)
  15. New Castle, DE (85,766)
  16. Kent, MI (85,304)
  17. Dauphin, PA (83,500)
  18. Polk, IA (79,460)
  19. Mercer, NJ (77,534)
  20. Rensselaer, NY (68,621) (0.15% of nat'l vote)
  21. Atlantic, NJ (64,688)
  22. Schenectady, NY (59,407)
  23. Winnebago, IL (53,989)
  24. Blair, PA (52,597)
  25. Trumbull, OH (50,329)
  26. Bucks, PA (48,895)
  27. New London, CT (47,703)
  28. Burlington, NJ (45,159)
  29. Lancaster, NE (44,106)
  30. Shawnee, KS (42,888)
  31. Lorain, OH (42,656)
  32. Clark, OH (42,540)
  33. Scioto, OH (40,380)
  34. Mercer, PA (40,311)
  35. Columbiana, OH (40,198)
  36. Lycoming, PA (38,280)
  37. Lawrence, PA (38,090)
  38. Kalamazoo, MI (37,380)
  39. York, ME (37,070)
  40. Gloucester, NJ (36,622)
  41. McDowell, WV (35,481)
  42. Cumberland, NJ (35,292)
  43. Riverside, CA (34,107)
  44. Cumberland, PA (34,021)
  45. Rock, WI (33,729)
  46. Delaware, IN (33,527)
  47. Muskingum, OH (32,573)
  48. Rockland, NY (32,090)
  49. Somerset, NJ (31,887)
  50. Black Hawk, IA (31,681)
  51. Allegany, MD (31,203)
  52. Hampshire, MA (30,906)
  53. Armstrong, PA (30,434)
  54. Elkhart, IN (30,371) (0.0665% of nat'l vote)
  55. Ashtabula, OH (30,010)
  56. Franklin, PA (29,413)
  57. Montgomery, NY (29,139)
  58. Knox, IL (29,124) (0.064% of nat'l vote)
  59. El Paso, CO (27,537)
  60. Lebanon, PA (27,476)
  61. Tippecanoe, IN (26,122) (0.057% of nat'l vote)
  62. Carbon, PA (25,811)
  63. Miami, OH (25,286)
  64. Wood, OH (24,778) (0.054% of nat'l vote)
  65. Middlesex, CT (23,578)
  66. Athens, OH (22,922)
  67. Seneca, OH (22,259) (0.049% of nat'l vote)
  68. Centre, PA (21,814)
  69. Lake, OH (21,707)
  70. Washington, OH (21,354) (0.047% of nat'l vote)
  71. Houghton, MI (21,206)
  72. Jackson, IL (20,546)
  73. Franklin, NY (20,478)
  74. Livingston, IL (20,334)
  75. Bureau, IL (20,322)
  76. Lawrence, OH (20,066)
  77. Marquette, MI (19,844)
  78. Henry, IN (19,420)
  79. Salem, NJ (19,402)
  80. Newport, RI (19,361)
  81. Harlan, KY (18,570)
  82. Hunterdon, NJ (18,409) (0.0403% of nat'l vote)
  83. Otter Tail, MN (18,110) (0.0397% of nat'l vote)
  84. Cape May, NJ (17,952)
  85. Clarion, PA (17,189)
  86. Greene, OH (16,712)
  87. Van Buren, MI (16,655)
  88. Knox, OH (16,641)
  89. Leavenworth, KS (16,601)
  90. Mifflin, PA (16,525)
  91. McDonough, IL (16,012)
  92. Franklin, MO (15,920)
  93. Perry, OH (15,785)
  94. Larimer, CO (15,221)
  95. Kosciusko, IN (15,179)
  96. Medina, OH (15,058)
  97. Clinton, PA (14,969)
  98. Lafayette, MO (14,861)
  99. Washington, ME (14,495)
  100. Carroll, MD (13,957)
  101. St Joseph, MI (13,809)
  102. Champaign, OH (13,719)
  103. Story, IA (13,588)
  104. Williams, OH (13,302)
  105. Tolland, CT (13,129) (0.029% of nat'l vote)
  106. Butler, MO (12,631) (0.028% of nat'l vote)
  107. Warren, IL (12,465)
  108. Lawrence, MO (12,439)
  109. Adams, OH (11,770)
  110. Barry, MO (11,699)
  111. Perry, PA (11,600)
  112. Rush, IN (11,500) (0.0252% of nat'l vote)
  113. Neosho, KS (11,428) (0.02504% of nat'l vote)
  114. Branch, MI (11,375)
  115. Morgan, IN (11,328)
  116. Page, IA (11,323)
  117. Dickinson, KS (11,283)
  118. Huron, MI (11,207)
  119. Marshall, KS (11,190)
  120. Jo Daviess, IL (10,950)
  121. Union, OH (10,950)
  122. Montcalm, MI (10,925)
  123. San Miguel, NM (10,906)
  124. Mason, WV (10,782)
  125. Carroll, MO (10,605)
  126. Fillmore, MN (10,404)
  127. Chippewa, MI (10,398)
  128. Roane, WV (10,341)
  129. Fulton, OH (10,224)
  130. Jefferson, IN (10,207)
  131. Grundy, IL (10,185)
  132. Decatur, IN (10,107)
  133. Howell, MO (10,064)
  134. Harrison, OH (10,045)
  135. Cass, IA (9,962)
  136. Mineral, WV (9,859)
  137. Harvey, KS (9,841)
  138. Clinton, MI (9,823)
  139. Orange, IN (9,692)
  140. Livingston, MI (9,563)
  141. Miami, KS (9,291)
  142. Iron, MI (9,130)
  143. Washington, IA (9,118)
  144. Polk, MO (9,048)
  145. Delaware, IA (9,046)
  146. Floyd, IA (9,031)
  147. Fulton, IN (9,004)
  148. Somerset, MD (8,958)
  149. Washington, IL (8,868)
  150. Harrison, MO (8,852)
  151. Grundy, MO (8,763)
  152. Union, IA (8,699)
  153. Wilson, KS (8,687)
  154. Richland, WI (8,686)
  155. Isabella, MI (8,658)
  156. Otoe, NE (8,634)
  157. Osage, KS (8,486)
  158. York, NE (8,415)
  159. Ford, IL (8,410)
  160. Montgomery, IA (8,382)
  161. Noble, OH (8,319)
  162. Henry, IA (8,271)
  163. Morrow, OH (8,252)
  164. Rice, KS (8,245)
  165. Washington, KS (8,192)
  166. Wright, MO (8,174) 
  167. Jackson, WV (8,172)
  168. Guthrie, IA (8,170)
  169. Webster, MO (8,102)
  170. Sullivan, MO (8,025)
  171. Laclede, MO (7,977)
  172. Jefferson, IA (7,941)
  173. Bond, IL (7,836)
  174. Carter, KY (7,810)
  175. Andrew, MO (7,693)
  176. Madison, IA (7,609)
  177. Steuben, IN (7,545)
  178. Taylor, IA (7,545)
  179. Benton, OR (7,423)
  180. Pott., KS (7,398)
  181. Brookings, SD (7,302)
  182. Carver, MN (7,292)
  183. Wexford, MI (7,109)
  184. Miller, MO (7,086)
  185. Alpena, MI (7,076)
  186. Clay, KS (6,987)
  187. Jackson, KS (6,959)
  188. Montgomery, MO (6,937)
  189. Jefferson, KS (6,841)
  190. Jennings, IN (6,823)
  191. Caldwell, MO (6,813)
  192. Adair, IA (6,763)
  193. Jasper, IN (6,721)
  194. St Clair, MO (6,684) 
  195. Antelope, NE (6,672)
  196. Jewell, KS (6,641)
  197. Perry, MO (6,606)
  198. Linn, KS (6,587)
  199. Coffey, KS (6,578)
  200. Turner, SD (6,526)
  201. Christian, MO (6,501) 
  202. Holt, MO (6,499)
  203. Morgan, CO (6,481)
  204. Moniteau, MO (6,466)
  205. Van Buren, IA (6,422)
  206. Waushara, WI (6,421)
  207. Grayson, VA (6,352)
  208. Anderson, KS (6,318)
  209. Valencia, NM (6,291)
  210. Smith, KS (6,156)
  211. Adair, KY (6,050)
  212. LaGrange, IN (6,042)
  213. Shenandoah, VA (6,028)
  214. Lincoln, SD (6,026)
  215. Cedar, MO (6,012) 
  216. Lake, SD (6,009)
  217. Ringgold, IA (5,995)
  218. Crawford, MO (5,961)
  219. Bollinger, MO (5,869) 
  220. Hutchinson, SD (5,801) (0.0127% of nat'l vote)
  221. Dade, MO (5,669) (0.0124% of nat'l vote)
  222. Grayson, KY (5,603)
  223. Morgan, MO (5,596)
  224. Estill, KY (5,590)
  225. Morris, KS (5,575)
  226. DeKalb, MO (5,570)
  227. Taylor, KY (5,491)
  228. Wayne, KY (5,480)
  229. Hamilton, NE (5,449)
  230. Furnas, NE (5,424)
  231. Newton, IN (5,408)
  232. Bradley, TN (5,376) 
  233. Carroll, VA (5,368)
  234. Phillips, KS (5,358)
  235. Benton, MO (5,346)
  236. Charles, MD (5,284)
  237. Adams, IA (5,268)
  238. Big Horn, WY (5,236)
  239. Henderson, IL (5,220)
  240. Norton, KS (5,160)
  241. Magoffin, KY (5,137)
  242. Kingsbury, SD (5,076)
  243. Wabaunsee, KS (5,059)
  244. Warren, IN (5,045)
  245. Socorro, NM (5,023)
  246. Stark, IL (4,958)
  247. Wythe, VA (4,878)
  248. Dallas, MO (4,828) 
  249. Stone, MO (4,745)
  250. Mercer, MO (4,605)
  251. Chautauqua, KS (4,599)

This was originally a list of the Roosevelt '32-Landon '36 and Hoover '32-Roosevelt '36 counties that cast at least 10,000 votes in 1936. Later, I extended this to all the turnover counties in 1936 that cast at least 0.01% of the national vote in 1936. This way, we could see that, at some point, Roosevelt '32-Landon '36 counties definitely begin to predominate.

And this is not purely a matter of there being no small ('small', here, meaning casting < 0.01% of the national vote in 1936) Hoover '32-Roosevelt '36 counties. Other than the scattering of Hoover-Roosevelt counties one sees above even after Roosevelt-Landon counties begin to predominate, there were a not-insignificant number of Hoover-Roosevelt counties that cast less than 0.01% of the national vote in 1936, such as (but not limited to) Lake, MN; Sweet Grass, MT; and six counties in Utah. 

0.01% = 4564.7699 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

electoral tak

On election night 2020, Chris Stirewalt mentioned , 'we've all seen the presidential map where you can walk from coast to coast on red counties.'  1892 was the first election in which it was possible for a party to win a series of contiguous counties from one coast to the other. Beginning with that election, these are the elections in which one nominee or another won a series of contiguous counties from coast to coast. (It is possible for both nominees to do so, but this has never happened.) If the winner of the election was a different nominee, he or she is named underneath. 1896: William Jennings Bryan (election winner: William McKinley ) 1904: Theodore Roosevelt 1912: Woodrow Wilson 1916: Woodrow Wilson 1920: Warren Harding 1924: Calvin Coolidge 1928: Herbert Hoover 1932: Franklin Roosevelt 1936: Franklin Roosevelt 1940: Franklin Roosevelt 1944: Franklin Roosevelt 1948: Harry Truman 1952: Dwight Eisenhower 1956: Dwight Eisenhower 1960: Richard Nixon (election winner: Jo...
Read more

County flips from 1920 on

In this post, we'll look at the counties that switched from each major party to the other in every election from 1920 on (as well as a few earlier elections). In some cases, there is a source that gives the number of counties, in which case I link to the source. In some cases, I deduce the number of counties that one of the nominees flipped, from the number that the other nominee flipped and from the number of counties each party carried in the previous election (the figures for which are here ). These can be slightly (hopefully only slightly) off for a variety of reasons, so in these cases, the figure is preceded by a tilde. In cases where I count the counties myself, my principal source is the Crystal Ball database linked here (although I correct for any errors I spot, of which there are a non-trivial number; Wikipedia takes precedence but is not practical to use simply to count turnover counties in a given election).  We'll look at the percentages of each party's counti...
Read more

Counties providing each party with their biggest raw-vote margins in the various states (Democrats, Tennessee-Virginia)

TENNESSEE 1880: Lincoln 1884: Lincoln 1888: Shelby 1892: Davidson 1896: Madison 1900: Davidson 1904: Shelby 1908: Davidson 1912: Davidson 1916: Shelby 1920: Shelby 1924: Davidson 1928: Shelby 1932: Shelby 1936: Shelby 1940: Shelby 1944: Shelby 1948: Davidson 1952: Davidson 1956: Davidson 1960: Davidson 1964: Davidson 1968: Shelby 1972: Stewart 1976: Davidson 1980: Davidson 1984: Humphreys 1988: Grundy 1992: Shelby 1996: Shelby 2000: Shelby 2004: Shelby 2008: Shelby 2012: Shelby 2016: Shelby 2020: Shelby TEXAS 1916: Dallas 1920: Dallas 1924: Dallas 1928: Fayette 1932: Harris 1936: Harris 1940: Harris 1944: Harris 1948: Tarrant 1952: Navarro 1956: Bell 1960: Bexar 1964: Harris 1968: Bexar 1972: Duval 1976: Bexar 1980: Jefferson 1984: Jefferson 1988: Hidalgo 1992: Travis 1996: El Paso 2000: El Paso 2004: Travis 2008: Travis 2012: Dallas 2016: Dallas 2020: Dallas UTAH 1896: Salt Lake 1900: Washington 1904: Washington 1908: Washington 1912: Cache 1916: Salt Lake 1920: n/a 1924: n/a 1928: Ca...
Read more