Posts

Showing posts from November, 2021

Third parties in 2020

The Wikipedia article for the 2020 election lists only two minor party candidates: Jo Jorgensen (who got 1.18%) and Howie Hawkins (who got 0.26%). I found this somewhat odd, as, in most elections, there are many more candidates listed. It turns out that most minor candidates did terribly . (That said, Wikipedia has listed candidates doing as terribly as the several candidates just below Howie Hawkins for other elections--but beyond Hawkins there is no obvious cutoff for another seven candidates.) Here is how all the third-party candidates who got at least 0.01% of the national vote did: Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian): 1,865,724 (1.18%) Howie Hawkins (Green): 405,035 (0.26%) Rocky de la Fuente (Alliance): 88,234 (0.06%) Gloria La Riva (PSL): 85,623 (0.05%) Kanye West (Birthday): 70,296 (0.04%) Don Blankenship (Constitution): 60,148 (0.04%) Brock Pierce (independent): 49,700 (0.03%) Brian Carroll (American Solidarity): 39,230 (0.02%) After Carroll, there is a pretty good gap; the next-stro...

Largest Clinton '96 margins in Bush '00 turnover counties

Counties in which Clinton's raw vote margin in 1996 was also over 1,000 votes Arkansas, AR ( 63.00% - 28.52% ) (margin: 34.48%) Prairie, AR ( 61.85% - 28.67% ) (margin: 33.17%) Avoyelles, LA ( 59.0% - 27.0% ) (margin: 32.0%) Red River, LA ( 61.5% - 31.3% ) (margin: 30.2%) St Martin, LA ( 60.2% - 30.4% ) (margin: 29.8%) Howard, AR ( 59.18% - 31.91% ) (margin: 27.27%) Union, KY ( 57.3% - 30.6% ) (margin: 26.7%) Sevier, AR ( 57.69% - 31.16% ) (margin: 26.53%) Allen, LA ( 55.7% - 29.3% ) (margin: 26.4%) DeSoto, LA ( 59.1% - 33.5% ) (margin: 25.6%) Webster, KY ( 55.9% - 30.7% ) (margin: 25.2%) These are all the counties where Clinton's '96 margin was over 25%. They are all in three Southern states : Louisiana (with five), Arkansas (with four), and Kentucky (with two). All of these counties have gone on to vote Republican in 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Nicholas, WV ( 55.9% - 31.0% ) (margin: 24.9%) Yell, AR ( 56.43% - 31.77% ) (margin: 24.66%) Carbon, UT ( 55.0% - 30.9% ) (...

Counties George W. Bush was the first Republican since 1972 to carry in 2004

(Those that voted for Bush by over 10% are in bold) Colbert, AL ( 55.1% - 44.3% ) Jackson, AL ( 56.8% - 42.5% ) Lawrence, AL ( 55.2% - 44.0% ) Hot Spring, AR Huerfano, CO Peach, GA McIntosh, GA Wilkinson, GA Muhlenberg, KY Perry, KY Harlan, KY ( 60.2% - 39.1% ) Letcher, KY Ballard, KY ( 57.2% - 42.1% ) West Baton Rouge, LA Iron, MI Aitkin, MN Mississippi, MO Bladen, NC Tyrrell, NC Hughes, OK ( 57.3% - 42.7% ) Haskell, OK ( 55.3% - 44.7% ) Cambria, PA Lawrence, PA Greene, PA Robertson, TN ( 60.5% - 39.0% ) Franklin, TN Warren, TN Henry, TN ( 55.7% - 43.5% ) Hickman, TN DeKalb, TN Cannon, TN Robertson, TX ( 55.8% - 43.8% ) Newton, TX ( 55.4% - 44.1% ) Morris, TX Frio, TX Russell, VA Caroline, VA Norton City, VA Wyoming, WV ( 57.2% - 42.4% ) Lincoln, WV The number of votes they cast can be found here . They were located in these 16 states , with Al Gore's home state of Tennessee having the most (seven), followed by Kentucky's five. Six states had at least one that vot...