longest county streaks broken by election

For the elections from 1980 through 2020, I counted any county that a nominee carried that had last voted for the nominee's party before 1972 (if a Republican) or 1964 (if a Democrat), these being the two 'civilizational chaos' elections. 

The only exception is Reagan in 1984, because he won in a landslide, and in fact, I quickly scrapped the idea of doing every election, because it became clear that every landslide-winning nominee was likely to have been the first of his party to have carried a number of counties in a long time. However, I do include the counties that Reagan carried in 1984 that had last voted Republican at least 64 years prior (this is the longest ago that any county that Robert Wheel mentions as a county in which a longstanding party winning streak in a county could be broken in 2016 had last voted for the party that he said could be breaking said streak that year). If I am not mistaken, there are only three such counties, which in and of itself is a bit of a curiosity (and partly bespeaks the intensity of preceding Republican landslides in 1952, 1956, and 1972 [and the locally landslide-like nature in parts of the South of Goldwater's candidacy in 1964]--but only partly, given the never-Republican counties Bush, McCain, Romney, and Trump carried in the 21st century).

In any case, if a nominee between 1980 and 2020 did not carry any counties that had last voted for his or her party before the last relevant civilizational chaos election, I just pointed out the longest-ago that any of of his or her counties had voted for his or her party, and give some examples (typically it is a landslide year and there are many). 

For elections prior to 1980, I ended up just doing 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960, and 1976. I think we can assume that in 1932, 1936, and 1964, many counties voted Democratic that had not voted Democratic before for a long time, and the same thing for the Republican Party in 1920, 1928, 1964, 1968, and 1972. (It should be noted that Coolidge was the first Republican ever to carry Johnson County, IN, Bracken, Henderson, and Pendleton Counties, KY, Butler, Crawford, and Fairfield Counties, OH, and Anderson, Bandera, Bee, Comanche, Kerr, McMullen, and Val Verde Counties, TX; and the first since 1860 to carry Putnam County, IN. Al Smith also made some breakthroughs in 1928; he was the first Democrat ever to carry Chittenden County, VT, and the first since 1844 to carry Berkshire County, MA.) On the other hand, it's safe to assume that McGovern carried no counties that had last voted Democratic any longer ago than 1964, and that Cox, Davis, Landon, Stevenson, and Humphrey almost certainly had no significant breakthroughs either.

For these elections, I counted counties that had last voted for the nominee's party at least 64 years prior.

2020

Donald Trump

-Zapata County, Texas (last voted Republican in 1920) (3,874)

Joe Biden

-Riley County, Kansas (never voted Democratic, first voted in 1864)
-Johnson County, Kansas (last voted Democratic in 1916)
-Maricopa County, Arizona (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Seminole County, Florida (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Chesterfield County, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Lynchburg City, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948)

2016

Donald Trump

-Elliott County, Kentucky (never voted Republican, first voted in 1872) (2,855)
-Columbia County, Oregon (last voted Republican in 1928) (26,618)
-Grays Harbor County, Washington (last voted Republican in 1928) (28,367)
-Itasca County, Minnesota (last voted Republican in 1928) (23,880)
-Swift County, Minnesota (last voted Republican in 1952) (4,996)
-Pacific County, Washington (last voted Republican in 1952) (10,716)
-Dubuque County, Iowa (last voted Republican in 1956) (49,721)
-Mower County, Minnesota (last voted Republican in 1960) (17,725)

Hillary Clinton

-Orange County, California (last voted Democratic in 1936)

(In 2016, Donald Trump hit all the marks Robert Wheel gave him save Deer Lodge, MT, where he got the highest Republican vote share since 1956. Hillary Clinton hit only one of hers, and several of the counties Wheel listed for her gave Trump larger margins than they gave Romney [both Ogle and Lee, IL, Walworth, WI, and Sarasota, FL]. Given how the election turned out, counties that Robert Wheel may have considered adding in hindsight were Lake and Carlton Counties, Minnesota [which last voted Republican in 1932 and 1928, respectively] and Seminole, FL and Chesterfield, VA [which last voted Democratic in 1948], all of which Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton nearly flipped in 2016.)

2012

Mitt Romney

-Jackson County, Tennessee (last voted Republican in 1920) (4,184)
-Houston County, Tennessee (last voted Republican in 1928) (3,027)

Barack Obama 

-Warren County, Mississippi (last voted Democratic in 1960) (21,391)

2008

John McCain 

-Stewart County, Tennessee (never voted Republican or Whig [going back to 1836]) (5,507)
-Floyd County, Kentucky (never voted Republican, last voted for major opposition party in 1848 [Whig]) (15,659)
-Knott County, Kentucky (never voted Republican, first voted in 1884) (5,611)
-Breathitt County, Kentucky (last voted Republican in 1908) (5,030)
-Perry County, Tennessee (last voted Republican in 1920) (3,000)
-Logan County, West Virginia (last voted Republican in 1928) (11,685)

Barack Obama

-Carroll County, Illinois (never voted Democratic, first voted in 1840)
-Boone County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1844)
-DuPage County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-Kane County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-Kendall County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-McHenry County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-Carroll County, New Hampshire (last voted Democratic in 1912)
-Waupaca County, Wisconsin (last voted Democratic in 1936) (25,511)
-Harrisonburg City, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1940) (14,675)
-Gallatin County, Montana (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Staunton City, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1944) (11,015)
-Teton County, Idaho (last voted Democratic in 1948) (4,658)
-Henrico County, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948) (154,966)
-Jefferson County, Alabama (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Hopewell City, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1952) (9,524)
-Oktibbeha County, Mississippi (last voted Democratic in 1956) (18,792)

2004

George W. Bush

Counties that last voted Republican in 1972:

Jackson, AL; Lawrence, AL; Hot Spring, AR; Huerfano, CO; McIntosh, GA; Peach, GA; Wilkinson, GA; Ballard, KY; Harlan, KY; Letcher, KY; Muhlenberg, KY; Perry, KY; West Baton Rouge, LA; Iron, MI; Aitkin, MN; Mississippi, MO; Bladen, NC; Tyrrell, NC; Haskell, OK; Hughes, OK; Cambria, PA; Greene, PA; Lawrence, PA; Cannon, TN; DeKalb, TN; Franklin, TN; Henry, TN; Hickman, TN; Robertson, TN; Warren, TN; Frio, TX; Morris, TX; Newton, TX; Robertson, TX; Caroline, VA; Norton City, VA; Russell, VA; Lincoln, WV; Wyoming, WV.

(Looking just at the counties that later Republican nominees have carried that had last voted Republican before 1972, it seems that Bush didn't come profoundly close to carrying a county that had last voted Republican before 1972 in his re-election bid. He came closest in Perry, TN, which he lost by 1.8%/57 raw votes. The next-closest was actually outside the South and in a state where he flipped no counties in 2004, Columbia County, Oregon, which he lost by 2.8%, followed by Stewart, TN, which he lost by 3.3%. In none did he come within less than 1%, however, and several of McCain's streak-breaker counties voted for Kerry by double digits.)

John Kerry

-Alpine County, California (last voted Democratic in 1936) (701)
-Mono County, California (last voted Democratic in 1940) (5,338)
-Albemarle County, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948) (43,726)
-Danville City, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948) (19,112)

2000

George W. Bush

-Morgan County, Kentucky (never voted Republican or Whig [going back to 1836]) (4,240)
-Wolfe County, Kentucky (never voted Republican, first voted in 1868) (2,425)
-Greenlee County, Arizona (never voted Republican; first voted in 1912) (2,960)
-Red Lake County, Minnesota (last voted Republican in 1920) (2,090)
-Menifee County, Kentucky (last voted Republican in 1928) (2,249)
-Cottle County, Texas (last voted Republican in 1928) (757)
-West Feliciana Parish, Louisiana (last voted Republican in 1964) (4,860)

Al Gore

-Orange County, Florida (last voted Democratic in 1944) 

1996

Bob Dole

Counties that last voted Republican in 1984: Clearwater, ID; Lewis, ID; Ellis, KS; Owen, KY; Robertson, KY; Lewis and Clark, MT; Greene, NC; Aurora, SD; Spink, SD; Briscoe, TX; Clay, TX; Concho, TX; Franklin, TX; Hardin, TX; McCulloch, TX; Montague, TX; Polk, TX; San Jacinto, TX; Throckmorton, TX.

Bill Clinton

-Porter County, Indiana (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-Tyler County, West Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1912)
-Grundy County, Illinois (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Waushara County, Wisconsin (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Allamakee County, Iowa (last voted Democratic in 1936)
-Butler County, Iowa (last voted Democratic in 1936)
-Lincoln Parish, Louisiana (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Osceola County, Florida (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Martin County, Minnesota (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Prince Edward County, Virginia (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Montgomery County, Alabama (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Richland Parish, Louisiana (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Hinds County, Mississippi (last voted Democratic in 1956)
-East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana (last voted Democratic in 1960)
-Dorchester County, Maryland (last voted Democratic in 1960)

1992

George H. W. Bush

Counties that last voted Republican in 1984: (by definition, all the Dukakis '88-Bush Sr '92 counties)

Bill Clinton

-Whiteside, IL (never voted Democratic, first voted in 1840)
-Union, TN (never voted Democratic, first voted in 1868)
-DeKalb, IL (last voted Democratic in 1852)
-Johnson, KY (last voted Democratic in 1856/1860 [Breckinridge])
-Johnson, IL (last voted Democratic in 1860)
-Pope, IL (last voted Democratic in 1860)
-Hickory, MO (last voted Democratic in 1860)
-Warren, MO (last voted Democratic in 1860)
-Macon, TN (last voted Democratic in 1880)
-Bureau, IL (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-McDonough, IL (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Warren, IL (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Benton, MO (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Morgan, MO (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Kingsbury, SD (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Pickett, TN (last voted Democratic in 1932)
-Sibley, MN (last voted Democratic in 1936)
-Whitman, WA (last voted Democratic in 1936)
-Montgomery, VA (last voted Democratic in 1940)
-Teton, WY (last voted Democratic in 1940)
-San Diego, CA (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Palm Beach, FL (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Caddo, LA (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Claiborne, LA (last voted Democratic in 1944)
-Coconino, AZ (last voted Democratic in 1948)
-Caldwell, LA (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Morehouse, LA (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Webster, LA (last voted Democratic in 1952)
-Franklin, LA (last voted Democratic in 1956)
-Iberia, LA (last voted Democratic in 1960)

1988

George H. W. Bush

Counties that last voted Republican in 1972: (all the Mondale '84-Bush Sr '88 counties)

Michael Dukakis

Counties that last voted Democratic in 1964: Sonoma, CA; Boulder, CO; Saguache, CO; Latah, ID; Hancock, IL; Henderson, IL; Henry, IL; Knox, IL; LaSalle, IL; Mercer, IL; Putnam, IL; Vermilion, IL; Adair, Black Hawk, Buchanan, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Cedar, Cherokee, Clay, Clayton, Clinton, Delaware, Emmet, Fayette, Franklin, etc., IA; Nantucket, MA; Saginaw, MI; Cook, MN; Lewis and Clark, MT; Missoula, MT; Rosebud, MT; Dakota and Thurston, NE; Broome and Montgomery, NY...

(The basic point is that there were no particularly long county voting streaks broken by either nominee in 1988. There was at least one county that had last voted Democratic before 1964 where Dukakis came tantalisingly close to winning: he lost Whitman County, Washington by just 1.8% or 277 votes.)

1984

Ronald Reagan

-Carroll County, KY (never voted Republican, last voted for major opposition party [Whig] in 1848)
-Monroe County, MO (never voted Republican, last voted for major opposition party [Whig/American/CUP] in 1852/1856/1860)
-Lewis County, TN (last voted Republican in 1920)

Walter Mondale

Counties that last voted Democratic in 1964: Marin, CA; Tompkins, NY.

1980

Ronald Reagan

-Plumas, CA (last voted Republican in 1920)
-Mahnomen, MN (last voted Republican in 1920)
-Shasta, CA (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Big Stone, MN (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Grant, MN (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Lincoln, MN (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Traverse, MN (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Coos, OR (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Aurora, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Brule, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Buffalo, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Charles Mix, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Day, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Roberts, SD (last voted Republican in 1952)
-Sierra, CA (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Carroll, IA (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Essex, MA (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Norfolk, MA (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Worcester, MA (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Lac qui Parle, MN (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Stearns, MN (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Lucas, OH (last voted Republican in 1956)
-Kandiyohi, MN (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Nobles, MN (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Pope, MN (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Brown, SD (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Marshall, SD (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Miner, SD (last voted Republican in 1960)
-Stevens, MN (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Athens, OH (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Bon Homme, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Davison, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Deuel, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Edmunds, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Hanson, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-McCook, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Moody, SD (last voted Republicanin 1968)
-Sanborn, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Union, SD (last voted Republican in 1968)
-Rusk, WI (last voted Republicanin 1968)

Jimmy Carter

-Franklin, MS (last voted Democratic in 1956)
-Grenada, MS (last voted Democratic in 1956)
-Marion, MS (last voted Democratic in 1956)
-Yazoo, MS (last voted Democratic in 1956)

1976

Gerald Ford

Counties that last voted Republican in 1968: Washtenaw, MI; Clay, SD; Pitkin, CO. 

Jimmy Carter

-Fentress, TN (1856/1860 [Breckinridge])
-Fannin, GA (1912)
-Crittenden, KY (1912)
-Loudon, TN (1912)

1960

Richard Nixon

Randolph, AR (never, back to 1836)
Shannon, MO (never, first voted 1844)
Reynolds, MO (never, first voted 1848)
Oregon, MO (never, first voted 1852)
Dyer, TN (never, Whig 1852/American 1856/CUP 1860)
Dunklin, MO (never, CUP 1860)
Marion, AR (1868)
Madison, TN (1868)
Craighead, AR (never, first voted 1872)
Fulton, AR (never, first voted 1872)
Sharp, AR (never, first voted 1872)
Barnwell, SC (1872)
Clay, AR (never, first voted 1876)
Fayette, TN (1884)
Tunica, MS (1888)
Moore, TX (never, first voted 1892)

John Kennedy

Norfolk, MA (1836)
Madison, NC (1876)

(I really can't guarantee full accuracy in this exercise, because I am counting both on a source that has proven somewhat unreliable at times [the Crystal Ball database linked here] and on my accurately reading said source. Here, my accounting is mostly confirmed by Albert J. Menendez, who listed the counties Nixon carried in 1960 that had never voted Republican before. The only ones I missed were ones in Oklahoma, as well as Houston County, Alabama, that had not been around for 64 years as of 1960; as well as one parish in Louisiana, Caldwell Parish, which is mistakenly marked by the Crystal Ball database as having voted Republican in 1956. Scott County, Arkansas, which Menendez says last voted Republican in 1868, is indicated by both the Crystal Ball database and Wikipedia as having voted for Eisenhower in 1956.)

1948

Thomas Dewey

Williamsburg City, VA (1888)
Rockbridge, VA (1900)

Harry Truman

Middlesex, MA (1912)
Oneida, NY (1912)

(I included Rockbridge because of the peculiarity of Virginia's having so many independent cities that are county-equivalents.)

1944

Thomas Dewey

Wells, IN (never, first voted in 1840)

Franklin Roosevelt

Kent, RI (1836)
Keweenaw, MI (1868)

1940

Wendell Willkie

Franklin, IN (never, Whig 1840) 

Franklin Roosevelt

Kennebec, ME (never, back to 1836)
Roane, TN (never, back to 1836)
Essex, VT (1836)

---

One thing that is interesting is that in both 1940 and 1944, both nominees broke long partisan voting streaks in counties that had last voted for their parties a profoundly long time ago (in some cases never), despite neither of those elections being ones in which one would normally expect either nominee to do so. FDR wasn't winning landslides in those two elections, and, at the same time, of course, his Republican rivals were still losing badly (just 12/16 years after the Hoover landslide in 1928). 

In 1948, one might expect Dewey to have broken some long county voting streaks, but, unless I missed some (which I and/or my source may have), he did not. Well, Williamsburg City had last voted Republican 60 years prior--but Williamsburg City cast 849 votes in 1948. That's still more than, say, Cottle County, Texas in 2000, but it was an isolate--the runner-up (Rockbridge County, VA) had last voted Republican in 1900 (and, as I said, it is worth noting that Virginia is highly idiosyncratic in having a number of independent city county-equivalents). These breakthroughs, such as they were, were also in a different state to the counties Willkie in 1940 and Dewey in 1944 had carried for their party for the first time ever, Indiana. In the Gilded Age, Indiana had been the friendliest free-soil Midwestern state for the Democracy, and, although it narrowly voted for Hughes in 1916, it was more Democratic than the nation in both 1920 and 1924. In 1928, it was narrowly more Republican than the nation, and continued to be so in 1932 and 1936.

Given that Truman had a surprising number of county flips in 1948 (especially compared to FDR in 1940 and 1944), one might also have expected Truman to have had some breakthroughs, or at least not been surprised if he had had some, but, at least by Robert Wheel's implied criteria, he had none. 

What's more, Dewey, in 1948, carried all of Kennebec, ME, Roane, TN, Essex, VT, Kent, RI, and Keweenaw, MI (flipping the last three in the process); and Truman carried Wells, IN (flipping it in the process--and becoming the second-to-last Democrat, behind just LBJ, ever to carry it).

1948 was in contrast to another close election just 12 years later, 1960, in this regard. Nixon was the first Republican in a very long time to carry a significant number of counties, and Kennedy was the first Democrat to do so in two, one of which was quite large and had provided Alf Landon with his biggest raw vote margin of any county just 24 years prior.

All of Carter's streak-breaking counties in 1976, and all but one in 1980, voted for Trump in 2020. The exception, Yazoo County, MS, voted Republican in 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, and 2004.

From 1980 on, however, every non-incumbent major-party nominee has carried a county that last voted for his party before the last relevant 'civilisational chaos' election, and that has gone on to vote for that nominee's party in every subsequent election. For Reagan in 1980, these were Shasta County, CA, Sierra County, CA, Edmunds, SD, McCook, SD. For Clinton in 1992, Palm Beach and Coconino. For Bush in 2000, Morgan (KY), Greenlee, Cottle, and West Feliciana. For Gore in 2000, Orange, FL. For Kerry in 2004, all of Albemarle, Danville, Mono, and Alpine. For Obama in 2008, DuPage, IL, kane, IL, Harrisonburg, VA, Staunton, VA, Henrico, VA, Jefferson, AL, Oktibbeha, MS, and Hopewlel, VA. For McCain, every one of his streak-breaker counties (and indeed all the anti-trend counties in 2008 save Benton, MS). For Romney, both Stewart and Houston, TN. Orange County, CA voted for Biden in 2020 by the safe margin of 9% (safer than Kerry's 800-vote win in Orange's name-mate in Florida in '04, certainly). And Trump retained all his 2016 streak-breakers in 2020, a better record than Bush in 2004, although in Pacific, WA, he won by a painfully narrow margin (1.1%, or 159 votes), and with only a plurality (49.4%), putting in doubt the security of its long-term redness. 

There have been four exceptions: Mondale in 1984, Bush Sr in 1988, Dukakis in 1988, and Dole in 1996. In 1988, neither nominee had any particularly streak-breaking counties. In 2000, both did, at least by some standards (Orange, FL had last voted Democratic less than 64 years prior at the time). 

In fact, Clinton in 1996 carried some pre-civilisational-chaos-election counties and turned them permanently blue in his re-election campaign: Hinds, MS and Montgomery, AL. (I don't know if Reagan did in 1984 or not, because I didn't collect those counties for his re-election, but none of Carroll, KY, Lewis, TN, or Monroe, MO stayed permanently red after 1984.) Obama carried one pre-civilisational-chaos-election county in his re-election campaign (Warren, MS), but it turned back red for at least one election (2016). Bush carried no counties in 2004 that had last voted Republican prior to 1972. If Zapata County stays permanently red, Trump will, even in defeat, have accomplished something that no president has in his re-election campaign since Bill Clinton.

Every president from Bill Clinton on has also been the first ever of his party to have carried a county in his initial election (which was not the case of Kennedy, Carter, or Reagan). The only remaining 'never-Republican' counties are two counties founded in the early 20th century in Texas' Rio Grande Valley: Brooks and Jim Hogg. (Starr and Duval Counties, TX and Northampton County, NC have longer streaks of never having voted Republican, although, since they are older, they have voted Republican.) Trump lost both in 2020, although he closed the gap dramatically in both, making it plausible that the next Republican president will not break this run. There seem to be few remaining plausible opportunities for the next Democratic president to carry 'never-Democratic' counties, even though there are more of them. 

In any case, every election this century appears to have been 'weird' for both parties, and more so because counties are sticking so steadfastly with their new allegiances. (In fact, ignoring how loyal they had been to their previous party orientation, anti-trend counties in general have been unusually loyal to their new party lately--as mentioned above, every Kerry-McCain county save one voted for Romney and Trump twice; every Romney-Hillary county went on to vote for Biden save Kenedy, TX; both Dole-Gore counties have been loyally Democratic ever since. [An exception is the McCain-Obama counties, all of which voted for Trump in 2016 and most of which voted for him again in 2020--perhaps not coincidentally, these were not open-election anti-trend counties.] In contrast, every Mondale-Bush Sr '88 county went on, at a minimum, to vote for Bill Clinton in 1992.)