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Republican country counties over the last six elections in select states

Here, we track counties that cast at least 10,000 votes and gave the Republican presidential nominee a greater vote share than Reagan in 1984 and greater than every subsequent nominee up to that election (and gave him a greater than 60% vote share) over the last six elections in select states. The last election in which a nominee got a higher vote share than the nominee in question is in parentheses (where practical). ALABAMA 2000 : Cullman, Marshall, St Clair, DeKalb, Blount 2004 : Shelby, Baldwin, Morgan, Etowah, Calhoun, Cullman, Marshall, Walker, Talladega, St Clair, Elmore, Limestone, DeKalb, Blount, Autauga, Tallapoosa, Coffee, Chilton, Covington, Marion, Escambia, Franklin, Pike, Geneva, Winston 2008 : Morgan, Etowah, Lauderdale, Limestone, St Clair, Cullman, Marshall, Walker, Blount, DeKalb, Jackson, Coffee, Chilton, Covington, Lawrence, Marion, Geneva, Franklin, Randolph, Winston 2012 : Baldwin, Morgan, Lauderdale, Limestone, St Clair, Cullman, Marshall, Walker, Blount, DeKalb...

Gore country counties

These are counties in which Al Gore received a higher vote share than Lyndon Johnson in 1964 or any subsequent nominee, and received over 60% of the vote. The last election in which a nominee of either party received a higher vote share than Gore is in parentheses. Greene, AL (1948) Macon, AL (1948)  Apache, AZ (1940) San Francisco, CA (back to 1880) Alameda, CA (1904) Marin, CA (1956) Los Angeles, CA (1936) Cook, IL (1920) Wyandotte, KS (back to 1880) Prince George's, MD (back to 1892) Baltimore City, MD (back to 1892) Essex, NJ (back to 1896) Durham, NC (1948) Orange, NC (1944) The Bronx, NY (ever; first voted in 1916) Brooklyn, NY (back to 1884) Queens, NY (back to 1884) Sioux, ND (1952) Philadelphia, PA (1904) Shannon, SD (1924) Petersburg City, VA (1936) Richmond City, VA (1944) King, WA (1936) --- Apache County, Arizona is unusual in being a Gore country county that has not gone on to be a Democratic country county in any subsequent election.  Bill Clinton was already do...

Bush country counties, 2000

These are counties in which George W. Bush received a higher vote share than Reagan in 1984 or any subsequent nominee, as well as in which Bush's vote share was above 60% (or 3/5), in 2000. (Only counties that cast at least 10,000 votes in 2000 are counted.) This is a somewhat more robust version of what Phillip Reese termed 'Trump country counties' in November 2016--counties where Trump '[beat] [Hillary] Clinton by at least 10 percentage points and earn[ed] a higher share of votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.' The last election in which a nominee of either party had received a higher vote share than Bush in '00 is in parentheses. ALABAMA Blount (1972) Cullman (1972) DeKalb (1972) Marshall (1976) CALIFORNIA Lassen (1940) Madera (1964) Plumas (1964) Shasta (1964) Siskiyou (1964) Tehama (1952) GEORGIA Bartow (1980) Camden (1980) Effingham (1972) Forsyth (1972) Glynn (1972) Hall (1976) Jackson (1976) Walton (1976) IDAHO Bonner (1932) Nez Perce (1964) INDIANA Adam...

Counties flipped in 2020

From Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 Maricopa, AZ (2,076,086 votes cast) Butte, CA (102,042) Inyo, CA (9,481) Chaffee, CO (13,717) Garfield, CO (30,904) Pueblo, CO (88,299) Kent, DE (87,025) Duval, FL (492,820) Pinellas, FL (559,715) Seminole, FL (260,815) Teton, ID (6,362) Kendall, IL (63,974) McLean, IL (87,190) Tippecanoe, IN (71,448) Johnson, KS (347,214) Riley, KS (25,171) Shawnee, KS (85,657) Kennebec, ME (72,615) Frederick, MD (145,615) Kent, MD (10,794) Talbot, MD (22,555) Kent, MI (362,031) Leelanau, MI (16,900) Saginaw, MI (103,483) Blue Earth, MN (36,051) Clay, MN (32,239) Nicollet, MN (19,125) Winona, MN (27,173) Warren, MS (21,053) Blaine, MT (3,118) Carroll, NH (33,297) Hillsborough, NH (231,659) Rockingham, NH (199,342) Sullivan, NH (24,444) Gloucester, NJ (173,453) Morris, NJ (300,917) Broome, NY (93,031) Essex, NY (19,271) Rensselaer, NY (79,409) Saratoga, NY (132,655) Nash, NC (52,271) New Hanover, NC (131,830) Montgomery, OH (269,164) Deschutes, OR (...

Magic Numbers

2000 : 269 votes in Florida ( 0.0003% ) 1876 : 445 votes in South Carolina ( 0.0053% ) 1884 : 575 votes in New York ( 0.0057% ) 1916 : 1,888 votes in California ( 0.0102% ) 1976 : 9,246 votes in Ohio and Hawaii ( 0.0133% ) 1960 : 11,874 votes in Hawaii, New Mexico, Nevada, Illinois, and Missouri ( 0.0173% ) 2020 : 32,507 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nebraska-02 ( 0.0205% ) 2020 : 38,260 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada ( 0.0242% )* 2016 : 38,875 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin ( 0.0284% ) 2004 : 57,787 votes in Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado ( 0.0473% ) 1948 : 29,294 votes in Illinois, Ohio, and California ( 0.0600% ) 1888 : 7,187 votes in New York ( 0.0631% ) 1880 : 7,014 votes in Oregon, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Indiana ( 0.0761% ) 1836 : 1,288 votes in Rhode Island, Louisiana, Connecticut, Mississippi, and Arkansas ( 0.0857% ) 1844 : 2,554 votes in New York ( 0.0945% ) 1848 : 3,198 votes in Delaware, Georgia, and New Jersey ( 0.1110...