Bellwether Counties, 2000-2020

(The percentages are how the counties voted in the 2016 election.)

October 2000

Bush
Logan, AR (72.54%-21.65%)
Van Buren, AR (73.33%-21.11%)
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Lincoln, MO (72.3%-22.2%)
Eddy, NM (66.9%-25.6%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)

Gore
New Castle, DE (62.0%-32.5%)
Socorro, NM (48.2%-38.1%)

October 2004

Bush
Garland, AR (63.93%-30.17%)
Logan, AR (72.54%-21.65%)
Madison, AR (72.04%-23.21%)
Marion, AR (75.08%-20.18%)
Van Buren, AR (73.33%-21.11%)
Washington, AR (50.67%-40.76%)

Fayette, IL (77.31%-19.08%)
Greene, IL (74.64%-21.70%)
Hamilton, IL (77.33%-19.34%)
Hardin, IL (77.35%-19.65%)
Marion, IL (70.00%-25.79%)
Mason, IL (62.94%-31.24%)
Massac, IL (72.98%-23.46%)
Moultrie, IL (71.65%-23.82%)
Shelby, IL (74.48%-20.71%)
Union, IL (67.81%-28.13%)
White, IL (77.36%-19.37%)

Crawford, IN (65.0%-28.5%)
Gibson, IN (71.6%-24.0%)
Jefferson, IN (62.6%-31.7%)
Knox, IN (71.4%-24.3%)
Posey, IN (67.4%-28.2%)
Spencer, IN (65.9%-28.7%)
Starke, IN (68.3%-26.7%)
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Warrick, IN (63.8%-30.4%)

Henry, IA (61.5%-30.9%)
Van Buren, IA (71.0%-23.7%)

Atchison, KS (61.6%-30.3%)

Lawrence, KY (79.7%-17.3%)

Cass, MN (62.4%-30.9%)
Hubbard, MN (63.1%-29.8%)
Todd, MN (70.8%-23.2%)

Bates, MO (74.2%-20.0%)
Caldwell, MO (75.0%-19.4%)
Carroll, MO (79.8%-17.1%)
Crawford, MO (77.9%-18.4%)
Daviess, MO (74.0%-19.5%)
Henry, MO (71.4%-23.8%)
Lincoln, MO (72.3%-22.2%)
Livingston, MO (76.0%-19.7%)
Macon, MO (76.0%-20.3%)
Madison, MO (77.1%-18.9%)
Ripley, MO (81.9%-15.0%)
St Clair, MO (75.6%-20.2%)
Schuyler, MO (77.7%-18.3%)
Scotland, MO (77.5%-18.6%)
Sullivan, MO (75.8%-21.2%)
Vernon, MO (76.0%-19.9%)
Wayne, MO (80.8%-16.5%)

Eddy, NM (66.9%-25.6%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)

Buncombe, NC (54.3%-40.1%)

Hocking, OH (65.7%-29.2%)
Lawrence, OH (69.8%-26.0%)
Meigs, OH (72.8%-22.5%)
Ottawa, OH (56.5%-37.0%)
Perry, OH (67.7%-27.4%)
Scioto, OH (66.3%-29.5%)
Vinton, OH (70.1%-24.4%)

Sequoyah, OK (75.4%-21.2%)

Jerauld, SD (67.0%-27.3%)

Anderson, TN (64.3%-30.2%)
Carroll, TN (74.7%-22.4%)
Lawrence, TN (79.3%-18.0%)
Morgan, TN (81.2%-15.7%)
Roane, TN (73.3%-22.3%)

Westmoreland, VA (51.9%-44.7%)

Cabell, WV (59.1%-34.1%)
Lewis, WV (76.0%-19.4%)
Monroe, WV (75.9%-19.0%)
Pleasants, WV (74.2%-19.5%)
Roane, WV (71.1%-23.0%)

Juneau, WI (60.8%-34.7%)
Oconto, WI (66.0%-29.4%)
Sawyer, WI (56.8%-38.3%)

Kerry
Guilford, NC (58.0%-38.1%)

October 2008

Obama
Mason, IL (62.94%-31.24%)
Spencer, IN (65.9%-28.7%)
Starke, IN (68.3%-26.7%)
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)
Buncombe, NC (54.3%-40.1%)
Ottawa, OH (56.5%-37.0%)
Westmoreland, VA (51.9%-44.7%)
Juneau, WI (60.8%-34.7%)
Oconto, WI (66.0%-29.4%)
Sawyer, WI (56.8%-38.3%)

McCain
Navajo, AZ (51.1%-40.9%)

Garland, AR (63.93%-30.17%)
Logan, AR (72.54%-21.65%)
Madison, AR (72.04%-23.21%)
Marion, AR (75.08%-20.18%)
Van Buren, AR (73.33%-21.11%)
Washington, AR (50.67%-40.76%)

Fayette, IL (77.31%-19.08%)
Greene, IL (74.64%-21.70%)
Hamilton, IL (77.33%-19.34%)
Hardin, IL (77.35%-19.65%)
Marion, IL (70.00%-25.79%)
Massac, IL (72.98%-23.46%)
Moultrie, IL (71.65%-23.82%)
Shelby, IL (74.48%-20.71%)
Union, IL (67.81%-28.13%)
White, IL (77.36%-19.37%)

Crawford, IN (65.0%-28.5%)
Gibson, IN (71.6%-24.0%)
Jefferson, IN (62.6%-31.7%)
Knox, IN (71.4%-24.3%)
Posey, IN (67.4%-28.2%)
Warrick, IN (63.8%-30.4%)

Henry, IA (61.5%-30.9%)
Van Buren, IA (71.0%-23.7%)

Atchison, KS (61.6%-30.3%)

Lawrence, KY (79.7%-17.3%)

Cass, MN (62.4%-30.9%)
Hubbard, MN (63.1%-29.8%)
Todd, MN (70.8%-23.2%)

Bates, MO (74.2%-20.0%)
Caldwell, MO (75.0%-19.4%)
Carroll, MO (79.8%-17.1%)
Crawford, MO (77.9%-18.4%)
Daviess, MO (74.0%-19.5%)
Henry, MO (71.4%-23.8%)
Lincoln, MO (72.3%-22.2%)
Livingston, MO (76.0%-19.7%)
Macon, MO (76.0%-20.3%)
Madison, MO (77.1%-18.9%)
Ripley, MO (81.9%-15.0%)
St Clair, MO (75.6%-20.2%)
Schuyler, MO (77.7%-18.3%)
Scotland, MO (77.5%-18.6%)
Sullivan, MO (75.8%-21.2%)
Vernon, MO (76.0%-19.9%)
Wayne, MO (80.8%-16.5%)

Eddy, NM (66.9%-25.6%)

Hocking, OH (65.7%-29.2%)
Lawrence, OH (69.8%-26.0%)
Meigs, OH (72.8%-22.5%)
Perry, OH (67.7%-27.4%)
Scioto, OH (66.3%-29.5%)
Vinton, OH (70.1%-24.4%)

Sequoyah, OK (75.4%-21.2%)

Jerauld, SD (67.0%-27.3%)

Anderson, TN (64.3%-30.2%)
Carroll, TN (74.7%-22.4%)
Fentress, TN (82.3%-15.0%)
Lawrence, TN (79.3%-18.0%)
McNairy, TN (78.1%-18.4%)
Meigs, TN (77.4%-19.8%)
Morgan, TN (81.2%-15.7%)
Roane, TN (73.3%-22.3%)

Cabell, WV (59.1%-34.1%)
Lewis, WV (76.0%-19.4%)
Monroe, WV (75.9%-19.0%)
Pleasants, WV (74.2%-19.5%)
Roane, WV (71.1%-23.0%)

October 2012

Obama 
Merced, CA (52.72%-40.58%)
Stanislaus, CA (46.81%-45.01%)
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Hidalgo, NM (48.6%-41.9%)
Sandoval, NM (44.9%-42.0%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)
Buncombe, NC (54.3%-40.1%)
Ottawa, OH (56.5%-37.0%)
Bexar, TX (53.7%-40.4%)
Val Verde, TX (51.1%-43.3%)
Westmoreland, VA (51.9%-44.7%)
Juneau, WI (60.8%-34.7%)
Sawyer, WI (56.8%-38.3%)

Romney
Mason, IL (62.94%-31.24%)
Spencer, IN (65.9%-28.7%)
Starke, IN (68.3%-26.7%)
Tuscarawas, OH (64.7%-29.3%)
Elk, PA (68.9%-26.5%)
Oconto, WI (66.0%-29.4%)

October 2016

Trump
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Hidalgo, NM (48.6%-41.9%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)
Ottawa, OH (56.5%-37.0%)
Westmoreland, VA (51.9%-44.7%)
Juneau, WI (60.8%-34.7%)
Sawyer, WI (56.8%-38.3%)

Hillary Clinton
Merced, CA 52.72%-40.58%)
Stanislaus, CA (46.81%-45.01%)
Sandoval, NM (44.9%-42.0%)
Buncombe, NC (54.3%-40.1%)
Bexar, TX (53.7%-40.4%)
Val Verde, TX (51.1%-43.3%)

October 2020

Biden
Clallam, WA (46.4%-43.6%)

Trump
Warren, IL (54.8%-38.3%)
Vigo, IN (54.7%-39.7%)
Bremer, IA (53.2%-39.6%)
Washington, ME (55.6%-37.1%)
Shiawassee, MI (56.4%-36.8%)
Van Buren, MI (53.8%-39.8%)
Hidalgo, NM (48.6%-41.9%)
Valencia, NM (47.9%-39.3%)
Cortland, NY (48.9%-43.3%)
Otsego, NY (51.9%-40.7%)
Ottawa, OH (56.5%-37.0%)
Wood, OH (50.1%-42.1%)
Essex, VT (51.5%-34.8%)
Westmoreland, VA (51.9%-44.7%)
Juneau, WI (60.8%-34.7%)
Marquette, WI (59.7%-35.6%)
Richland, WI (49.7%-44.2%)
Sawyer, WI (56.8%-38.3%) 

(As of November 25, a significant proportion of the vote is still out in New York State; Trump is currently ahead in Otsego County 51.2%-46.3% and in Cortland County 49.8%-47.8%, with 95% of the vote in, according to CNN. However, both KOMO News Staff and Claire Galofaro have already averred that Clallam County alone now holds the longest bellwether run.)

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