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Showing posts from February, 2022

States in which the parties have won quadrant major margins/'rural wins'

Here is another possible way to think about the relative breadth of the two parties' support. In these maps, states in which the nominee carried no county by a quadrant-major margin are coloured in the darker shade of his or her party's colour. We can call these 'rural wins'. (Conversely, we can call those states in which the nominee did carry a county by a quadrant-major margin an 'urban win' , for want of a better term.) At the time of this writing, I have done the 1896, 1916, 1948, 1960, 1968, and 1976 elections, and every election from 1988 on. The first election for which we have information for all the states is 1916; for 1896 (and any other elections before 1916 I may do later), yellow is for states we do not have enough information on. 1892 1896 1900 1916 1920 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 3000 Rural wins 1896: Bryan 14-16 , McKinley 1-3 1916: Wilson 14 , Hughes 9 1948: Truman 11 , Dewey 1...

States where the winner's best raw vote margin county failed to account for at least 1/4 of the statewide margin

These are maps illustrating the states in which no one county accounted for at least 1/4 of the statewide winner's statewide margin, from 1896 through 2020. The darkly shaded states are ones in which no county accounted for at least 1/4 of the state winner's statewide margin; the lightly shaded states are ones in which at least one county did do so. States left blank are ones in which 1) a third-party or independent candidate won; 2) county-level data isn't available (to me); and/or 3) statehood had not yet been achieved. 1800 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 * § 1916 1920 * 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 * 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 * 2020 3000 * In 2016, Trump's margin over his nearest competitor in any county in Utah was not over 1/4 of his statewide Utah margin. However, his margin over Hillary Clinton in Utah County (where Evan McMullin came in second) was over 1/4 of his statewide Utah margin; and Hi...