Posts

Showing posts from August, 2021

The popular vote on election night

It seems that it was in 2004 that networks began posting the popular vote as a regularly recurring feature on their graphics. (I am taking all the networks--ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC--as essentially equally reliable.) Times are Eastern. 2004 Bush 30,086,416 [ 51% ], Kerry 28,166,463 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] [before the 11 PM poll closings] Bush 33,044,406 [ 51% ], Kerry 31,205,991 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] [after the 11 PM poll closings] Bush 36,699,167 [ 51% ], Kerry 34,772,694 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 38,507,196 [ 51% ], Kerry 36,445,392 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 41,076,201 [ 51% ], Kerry 38,572,829 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 43,072,551 [ 51% ], Kerry 40,433,228 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 44,926,339 [ 51% ], Kerry 42,106,133 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 46,578,994 [ 51% ], Kerry 43,490,962 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 48,157,684 [ 51% ], Kerry 44,812,454 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 49,200,728 [ 51% ], Kerry 45,784,980 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 50,285,850 [ 51% ], Kerry 46,889,609 [ 48% ] [ CNN ] Bush 51,414,770 [...

Mega counties, 1892-2020

These are the counties that have cast the most vote in US presidential elections.  In The Great Revolt , Salena Zito and Brad Todd wrote that   Of the forty-four mega counties in the nation with populations over one million, Trump carried only three--[Tarrant County, Texas, Maricopa County, Arizona, and Suffolk County, New York].  The forty-four most vote-casting counties in the 2016 election were slightly different, which is not surprising. Of the forty-four most vote-casting counties in the 2016 election, Trump carried five: Maricopa, Suffolk [NY], Tarrant, Pinellas, and Duval [FL], with Duval being #44.  Forty-two counties cast more than 1/3 of 1% of the national popular vote in 2016. These, again, include Pinellas, which was not one of Zito's mega counties. However, this gives us a list of counties that gives us roughly the same number as Zito's mega counties. In general, this likely means that the overlap between these forty-two, and Zito's forty-four, i...