less one day

Montgomery County, TX: 119,005 [ The Woodlands ] Utah County, UT: 116,779 [ Provo ] Ocean County, NJ: 98,274 Lee County, FL : 75,552 [ Fort Myers ] St Tammany, LA: 61,920 Pasco County, FL : 60,548 [ New Port Richey ] Horry County, SC: 59,641 [ Myrtle Beach ] Brevard County, FL : 59,334 Baldwin County, AL: 58,966 York County, PA: 58,619 Westmoreland County, PA : 58,089 Cherokee County, GA: 56,793 Waukesha County, WI: 55,743 Mohave County, AZ : 53,704 [ Lake Havasu City ] Marion County, FL : 52,968 [ Ocala ] Collier County, FL : 51,329 [ Naples ] Bolded counties are those in which Trump increased his vote share in 2020 relative to 2016. Five of the sixteen are in Florida; five of the seven in which Trump increased his vote share are also in Florida. However, only in one (Mohave, AZ--underlined) did Trump increase his margin relative to 2016.

Alabama Trump: 2000 (Barbour, Choctaw, Colbert, Conecuh, Jackson, Lawrence) Biden: 1996 (Jefferson) Arizona Trump: 1988 (Greenlee) Biden: 2012 (Maricopa) The most recently that any Trump '20 county other than Greenlee in Arizona voted for a losing Democrat was 1968, when Pinal and Gila also did so (Greenlee being exceptionally small). Arkansas Trump: 2004 (Bradley, Clark, Clay, Hempstead, Jackson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Little River, Mississippi, Monroe, Poinsett, Randolph, Woodruff) Biden: 1892 (Chicot, Crittenden, St Francis) California Trump: 1972 (Plumas, Shasta, Sierra) Biden: 2012 (Butte, Inyo, Nevada, Orange) Colorado Trump: 2016 (Alamosa) Biden: 2008 (Chaffee) Connecticut Trump: 2004 (Windham) Biden: 1992 (Fairfield) Delaware Trump: 1880 (Sussex) Biden: 1992 (Kent) Florida Trump: 2004 (Jefferson, Monroe, St Lucie, Volusia) Biden: 2012 (Duval, Seminole) Georgia Trump: 2016 (Burke) Biden: 2012 (Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry) Hawaii Trump: n/a Biden: 1960 (Hawaii, Kauai, Maui) Idaho Trump...

(E.g., George W. Bush got 22.96% more raw votes in 2004 than he did in 2000.) 2004-2020 George W. Bush, 2004 : +22.96% John McCain, 2008 : -3.37% Mitt Romney, 2012 : +1.64% Donald Trump, 2016 : +3.37% Donald Trump, 2020 : +17.83% John Kerry, 2004 : +15.74% Barack Obama, 2008 : +17.74% Barack Obama, 2012 : -5.16% Hillary Clinton, 2016 : -0.09% Joe Biden, 2020 : +23.41% Other Calvin Coolidge, 1924 : -2.60% Herbert Hoover, 1928 : +36.27% Al Smith, 1928 : +79.05% Franklin Roosevelt, 1932 : +51.99% Franklin Roosevelt, 1936 : +21.59% Wendell Willkie, 1940 : +33.98% Adlai Stevenson, 1952 : +13.22% Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 : +54.95% Dwight Eisenhower, 1956 : +4.41% John Kennedy, 1960 : +31.48% Richard Nixon, 1968 : +16.96% Richard Nixon, 1972 : +48.40% Jimmy Carter, 1976 : +39.96% Ronald Reagan, 1980 : +12.14% Ronald Reagan, 1984 : +24.04% Michael Dukakis, 1988 : +11.26% Bill Clinton, 1992 : +7.42% Bill Clinton, 1996 : +5.55% Bob Dole, 1996 : +0.24% George W. Bush, 2000 : +28.72% .

There were a number of counties that had last voted Republican no more recently than 1988, where Trump came within 6% of winning in 2016. Because of the margin, one could have expected him to have flipped these counties in 2020, if he were winning reelection. (On election night, Jason Miller gave , as reason for optimism on the Trump side, that Trump appeared to be increasing his margin in counties that were at least 75% in in Michigan by 6-7%; 'increasing' a negative 'margin' of any less than -6% by that much would mean flipping the county.) (Bold indicates Trump increased his vote share in the county in 2020; the colour is of the party that carried the county in 2020. Asterisk indicates that Trump's 2020 vote share was the highest of any Republican's this century.) Russell, AL (-1.6%) Lake, CA (+2.8%)* Gilpin, CO (-0.003%) Tolland, CT (-1.0%) Peoria, IL (+0.5%) St Clair, IL (+0.2%)* Jackson, IL (+4.0%)* Scott, IA (+1.8%) Tensas, LA (+0.5%) York, ME (...

In 2016, a number of counties voted Republican for the first time since at least 1988. Of these counties, 27 cast over 40,000 votes in 2020 (a somewhat arbitrary cutoff to make for a decently-populated, but manageable, list--although it also appears to have formed a rough cutoff for the counties on-air analysts saw as important on election night [ e.g. , Chuck Todd singled out Erie County, Ohio, the smallest of these and casting only barely above the threshold (40,416 votes), at one point]).  Trump increased his vote share in 20 of them (bolded; the colour is of the party the county voted for in 2020): Pueblo, CO (+1.8%) Windham, CT (+0.4%) Monroe, FL (+2.4%) Dubuque, IA (+3.3%) LaPorte, IN (+2.9%) Androscoggin, ME (-0.9%) Kennebec, ME (+0.5%) Saginaw, MI (+1.1%) Bay, MI (+1.8%) Gloucester, NJ (+0.3%) Niagara, NY (-2.3%) Broome, NY (-0.5%) Rensselaer, NY (-1.1%) St Lawrence, NY (+3.9%) Robeson, NC (+8.1%) Montgomery, OH (+0.2%) Trumbull, OH (+3.8%) Portage, OH (+...

(In counties where McMullin came in second in 2016, the Trump-Hillary Clinton margin is used as a reference point.) Lawrence, AL (16,031) +6.1% Graham, AZ (15,029) +6.3% Mississippi, AR (12,342) +11.6% Independence, AR (14,512) +6.4% Hot Spring, AR (12,557) +6.8% Greene, AR (16,100) +7.3% Hendry, FL (12,956) +8.9% Bingham, ID (19,996) +7.9% Madison, ID (17,137) +14.2% Jefferson, ID (14,180) +8.6% Fayette, IN (10,136) +6.2% Scott, IN (10,167) +8.0% Jackson, IA (11,135) +6.8% Carroll, IA (11,335) +6.2% Poweshiek, IA (10,140) +6.8% Ray, MO (11,649) +8.2% Washington, MO (10,101) +7.7% Lea, NM (20,918) +11.2% Eddy, NM (23,222) +10.5% [ Carlsbad ] Robeson, NC (47,188) +14.3% Columbus, NC (26,446) +6.1% Scotland, NC (14,775) +9.7% Caswell, NC (12,051) +7.4% Pike, OH (12,424) +12.2% Ross, OH (33,365) +7.9% [ Chillicothe ] Adams, OH (12,145) +8.0% Perry, OH (16,676) +9.3% Carroll, OH (14,233) +6.3% Chester, SC (15,757) +6.1% Hardeman, TN (10,063) +7.7% Marion, TN (13,256) +6.02% Overton, TN (10...

Thomas Dewey , 1948: 45.07% James Buchanan , 1856: 45.28% William Jennings Bryan , 1900: 45.52% Michael Dukakis , 1988: 45.646% John McCain , 2008: 45.653% Thomas Dewey , 1944: 45.89% Grover Cleveland , 1892: 46.02% Donald Trump , 2016: 46.09% Charles Evans Hughes , 1916: 46.12% William Jennings Bryan , 1896: 46.70% Martin van Buren , 1840: 46.81% Donald Trump , 2020: 46.86% Mitt Romney , 2012: 47.20% Zachary Taylor , 1848: 47.28% Horatio Seymour , 1868: 47.34% Benjamin Harrison , 1888: 47.80% George W. Bush , 2000: 47.87% Rutherford Hayes , 1876: 47.92% 45%-48% is the range in which close-election losers (and some close-election winners--albeit ones who lost the popular vote), and some decisive losers, coexist. If one is getting above 48% of the vote, one is assured of keeping the margin between oneself and the winner under 4%. Amongst elections in which the loser got less than 45%, the only one that was unambiguously close was one in which the winner also got less than 45% (1968). (T...

(Electoral College winner is listed first. When there is a difference between the two major party nominees, the one with the larger Wasserman number is bolded.) 1828 Jackson : 4 1832 Jackson : 4 1836 van Buren : 4 Whigs : 4 1840 Harrison : 5 van Buren : 5 1844 Polk : 5 Clay : 5 1848 Taylor : 6 Cass : 6 van Buren : 2 1852 Pierce : 5 Scott : 5 1856 Buchanan : 7 Frémont : 4 Fillmore : 6 1860 Lincoln : 4 Douglas : 4 Breckinridge : 6 Bell : 5 1864 Lincoln : 4 McClellan : 4 1868 Grant : 6 Seymour : 6 1872 Grant : 8 Greeley : 7 1876 Hayes : 7 Tilden : 8 1880 Garfield : 7 Hancock : 8 1884 Cleveland : 8 Blaine : 8 1888 Harrison : 8 Cleveland : 8 1892 Cleveland : 8 Harrison : 7 Weaver : 7 1896 McKinley : 7 Bryan : 9 1900 McKinley : 7 Bryan : 8 1904 Theodore Roosevelt : 7 Parker : 8 1908 Taft : 7 Bryan : 8 1912 Wilson : 9 Taft : 7 Theodore Roosevelt : 7 Debs : 7 1916 Wilson : 9 Hughes : 7 1920 Harding : 8 Cox : 9 1924 Coolidge : 7 Davis : 8 La Follette : 6 1928 Hoover : 8 Smith : 8 1932 Franklin ...